Türkiye’s Trade Deficit Rises, Confidence Index Declines


A man who sells souvenirs waits for customers in a market in commercial Eminonu, Istanbul. (AP)
A man who sells souvenirs waits for customers in a market in commercial Eminonu, Istanbul. (AP)
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Türkiye’s Trade Deficit Rises, Confidence Index Declines


A man who sells souvenirs waits for customers in a market in commercial Eminonu, Istanbul. (AP)
A man who sells souvenirs waits for customers in a market in commercial Eminonu, Istanbul. (AP)

Türkiye’s trade deficit continued to rise in January while the economic confidence index witnessed a sharp decline.

Türkiye’s foreign trade deficit widened 38.4 percent year-on-year to $14.237 billion in January, official data showed on Monday, with imports surging 20.7 percent and exports up 10.3 percent.

The Turkish Statistical Institute said imports climbed to $33.606 billion in January, while exports rose to $19.369 billion.

The overall foreign trade deficit surged 137 percent year-on-year to $109.54 billion in 2022 in Türkiye, the data showed.

The Institute said that Türkiye's exports rose 12.9 percent to $254.1 billion last year, while imports rose 34 percent to $363.7 billion.

Under an economic program unveiled in 2021, Türkiye aims to shift to a current account surplus through stronger exports and low-interest rates, despite soaring inflation and a currency that has tumbled in recent years.

Türkiye's economic confidence index fell 0.3 percent month-on-month in February to 99.1 points, following massive earthquakes that devastated the country's southern region, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The index, which points to an optimistic outlook when above 100 and pessimistic when below, hit a record low in 2020 before recovering as coronavirus measures were eased.

The government introduced a series of measures to ease quake fallout that is expected to cost at least $50 billion. But economists have predicted it will shave some 1-2.5 percentage points off economic growth this year.

Türkiye’s sovereign wealth fund plans to channel cash into the nation’s main stock exchange via exchange-traded funds, in an open-ended attempt to keep the equities market from falling, according to Bloomberg.

The fund will allocate at least $1 billion initially to ETFs run by a state bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

The move differs from previous attempts to support equities since the Borsa Istanbul resumed trading following a halt caused by two devastating earthquakes on February 6. The government initially channeled pension funds’ money into the stock market to reverse the rout after the natural disaster.

The plan is to use ETFs currently run by Ziraat Portfoy, the asset-management arm of state lender T.C. Ziraat Bankasi A.S., the people said. The funds track the performance of various indexes related to Borsa Istanbul.

Domestic investors have become the dominant force in Borsa Istanbul in the past several years as they sought protection against rampant inflation.

The exact size of the fund at its inauguration will be determined once all the TVF companies, such as Turkish Airlines, report 2022 earnings, one of the people said.

Ziraat has several ETFs tracking Türkiye’s main stock exchange, with some focusing on large companies only, such as those listed in the Borsa Istanbul 30 index. Ziraat Portfoy’s BIST 30 Index Fund, the biggest local ETF for Turkish stocks, has already seen 8.1 billion liras ($430 million) in inflows since February 15, according to Bloomberg data.

The Istanbul exchange’s main index, the BIST 100, has a market cap of about $220 billion.

The average trading volume in the past month was about $160 million a day, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

Indexes tracking larger companies will likely be the priority target for the sovereign wealth fund and the buying program has no expiration date, the people said.



Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo

Oil prices declined moderately on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $69.96 a barrel by 0904 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.06 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the US, after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

Trump's history of backpedaling on tariffs has caused the market to become less reactive to such announcements, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

"People are largely in wait and see mode, given the erratic nature of policy making and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs," Tchilinguirian said.

Policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting saying they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil, Reuters said.

Supporting oil prices however was a weaker US dollar in Thursday's Asia trading session, said OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong. A weaker dollar lifts oil prices by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said.

Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating "sustained expansion" in trade activities from last year, JP Morgan said in a client note.

"Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day," the note said.

Additionally, there is doubt the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure," he said.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members, and the United Arab Emirates' move to a larger quota.