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Türkiye's Quakes Revive Concern for Northwestern Industrial Hub

Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
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Türkiye's Quakes Revive Concern for Northwestern Industrial Hub

Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)

Earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye that destroyed cities and killed 44,000 people have prompted authorities to look again at how the quake-prone nation might cope with a similar tremor in Türkiye's densely populated, northwestern industrial heartland.

Istanbul, Türkiye's biggest city with a population of 16 million and the country's commercial engine, lies near fault lines that criss-cross the country. Two earthquakes three months apart killed nearly 20,000 in the northwest in 1999. Geologists say another could strike.

The Feb. 6 earthquake has caused about $34 billion in direct physical damage, the World Bank estimated on Monday, but total reconstruction and recovery costs could be twice as high. The southeast region has a sizeable manufacturing sector, albeit smaller than Türkiye's northwest.

A tremor on the scale of February's quake in Istanbul, one of the world's mega cities that lies on the strategic Bosphorus waterway, could wreak havoc and so require more preparation.

"This is (Türkiye's) industrial center. Destruction of that magnitude here could have much graver consequences that could lead to the country's destruction," said Bugra Gokce, deputy secretary-general of the opposition-run Istanbul municipality.

"The state should view this as a national security problem and should prioritize and allocate resources here," said Bugra, responsible for the municipality's earthquake risk management.

This month's earthquakes and the issue of preparedness for a major one in the northwestern Marmara region around Istanbul are set to be key issues in presidential and parliamentary elections which Türkiye is scheduled to hold by June.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade rule has been defined by a construction boom. He is now expected to face his biggest ever political challenge in those votes and has pledged a swift campaign to rebuild tens of thousands of homes after more than 180,000 buildings were destroyed in the latest quakes.

The Marmara region is home to 25 million people and accounts for just over 40 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2021, according to figures from Türkiye's Statistics Institute.

Rapid urbanization

It hosts many factories producing goods such as cement, textiles, automotive items and oil. It is a transit channel for international trade with numerous commercial and passenger ports and the Istanbul straits linking the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

Türkiye sits across several active fault lines, leaving it prone to large earthquakes. A branch of the North Anatolia faultline runs though the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.

Experts say attention needs to be focused once again on Istanbul's readiness for a major quake, something that has been a matter of public debate periodically since the 1999 disaster.

"(Building) Standards could have improved over the past 25 years if steps had been taken systematically, but...that hasn't happened," Bugra said, warning that preparation for an earthquake in or near Istanbul was not a task for a single governmental entity and required a nation-wide effort.

"We need a mobilization by all the state institutions....and have to transform policies and do this within the next 5-6 years," Bugra said.

Since 1999, Istanbul has undergone a rapid wave of urbanization, much of it under Erdogan's rule. In 2018, the government introduced a so-called zoning amnesty across Türkiye to legalize unregistered construction work, which engineers and architects warned could endanger lives.

The government denies criticism that it has been systematically lax on safety standards, but last week Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag acknowledged Türkiye should no longer implement the amnesty and should review penalties on sub standard construction.

Bugra's municipality is run by mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), who has clashed with Erdogan in the past and who is seen as a potential challenger to him in the presidential election.

He is set to announce a "mobilization plan" for Istanbul on Wednesday.

Preparations for an earthquake hitting Istanbul should not be limited to evaluating and strengthening the buildings but also should expand to infrastructure work to secure the flow of energy and water, Bugra said.

Since the quake in the southeast, Istanbul municipality has received more than 100,000 applications for building resilience assessments, triggering the web site to crash, he said.

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Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government suffered a serious blow on Tuesday when an ultra-Orthodox party announced it was bolting the coalition.

While this doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s rule, it could set in motion his government’s demise, although that could still be months away. It also could complicate efforts to halt the war in Gaza.

United Torah Judaism's two factions said they were leaving the government because of disagreements over a proposed law that would end broad exemptions for religious students from enlistment into the military.

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country. Those rifts have only widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.

The threat to the government “looks more serious than ever,” said Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption, and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges. That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of his coalition allies.

Here is a look at Netanyahu's political predicament and some potential scenarios:

The ultra-Orthodox are key partners

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving leader, has long relied on the ultra-Orthodox parties to prop up his governments.

Without UTJ, his coalition holds just 61 out of parliament’s 120 seats. That means Netanyahu will be more susceptible to pressure from other elements within his government, especially far-right parties who strongly oppose ending the war in Gaza.

The political shake up isn't likely to completely derail ceasefire talks, but it could complicate how flexible Netanyahu can be in his concessions to Hamas.

A second ultra-Orthodox party is also considering bolting the government over the draft issue. That would give Netanyahu a minority in parliament and make governing almost impossible.

The ultra-Orthodox military exemptions have divided Israel

A decades-old arrangement by Israel’s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli service. Over the years, those exemptions ballooned into the thousands and created deep divisions in Israel.

The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries’ old tradition. They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents’ connection to the faith.

But most Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair, as well as the generous government stipends granted to many ultra-Orthodox men who study instead of work throughout adulthood. That bitterness has only worsened during nearly two years of war.

The politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties have long had outsize influence in Israel’s fragmented political system and used that status to extract major concessions for their constituents.

But a court last year ruled Netanyahu’s government must enlist the ultra-Orthodox so long as there is no new law codifying the exemptions.

Netanyahu’s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law. But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind, prompting their exit.

The political shake up comes during Gaza ceasefire talks

The resignations don't take effect for 48 hours, so Netanyahu will likely spend the next two days seeking a compromise. But that won't be easy because the Supreme Court has said the old system of exemptions amounts to discrimination against the secular majority.

That does not mean the government will collapse.

Netanyahu's opponents cannot submit a motion to dissolve parliament until the end of the year because of procedural reasons. And with parliament's summer recess beginning later this month, the parties could use that time to find a compromise and return to the government.

Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said he was hopeful the religious party could be coaxed back to the coalition. “God willing, everything will be fine,” he said. A Likud spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Once the departures become official, Netanyahu will have a razor-thin majority. The far-right parties within it could threaten to leave the coalition, further weakening him, if he gives in to too many of Hamas' demands.

Hamas wants a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire deal. Netanyahu's hard-line partners are open to a temporary truce, but say the war cannot end until Hamas is destroyed.

If they or any other party leave the coalition, Netanyahu will have a minority government, and that will make it almost impossible to govern and likely lead to its collapse. But he could still find ways to approve a ceasefire deal, including with support from the political opposition.

Israel may be on the path toward early elections

Netanyahu could seek to shore up his coalition by appeasing the far-right and agreeing for now to just a partial, 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, promising his governing partners that he can still resume the war once it expires.

But Netanyahu is balancing those political constraints with pressure from the Trump administration, which is pressing Israel to wrap up the war.

Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said she expects Netanyahu to work during those 60 days to shift the narrative away from the draft exemptions and the war in Gaza, toward something that could potentially give him an electoral boost – like an expansion of US-led normalization deals between Israel and Arab or Muslim countries.

Once the 60-day ceasefire is up, Netanyahu could bend to US pressure to end the war and bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza — a move most Israelis would support.

Elections are currently scheduled for October 2026. But if Netanyahu feels like he has improved his political standing, he may want to call elections before then.