Iraq: Disintegration of Coordination Framework, or New Early Elections

 Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani speaks at a press conference on Jan. 13. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani speaks at a press conference on Jan. 13. (Reuters)
TT
20

Iraq: Disintegration of Coordination Framework, or New Early Elections

 Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani speaks at a press conference on Jan. 13. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani speaks at a press conference on Jan. 13. (Reuters)

Sources close to influential parties in Iraq point that the political equation that brought about the government of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani will undergo sharp changes.

The sources cited various circumstances, the most important of which is the highly probable return of the leader of As-Sadr movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, to the political arena, and the sharp divisions among the poles of the Coordination Framework.

Shiite parties are trying to anticipate “unexpected big turns” by drawing a new map that may include setting a date for early elections and reaching an understanding with al-Sadr on the next stage.

According to informed sources, the relationship between Sudani and the Framework has become “turbulent and lacking coordination.”

“Al-Sudani and the Framework are both working in opposite directions, and each side looks at the other in a way of domination, not cooperation,” the sources said.

Local media claimed that Al-Sudani would resort to a cabinet reshuffle that might include partisan figures with whom Washington has banned dealings, due to their association with the armed factions. However, Iraqi politicians, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, said that the premier’s intention was linked to the conflict within the Coordination Framework.

In a video broadcast on state television, Sudani appeared to be criticizing the performance of some ministers, noting that others had received threats from their parties.

The Iraqi prime minister had never made such frank statements publicly, which were seen by local public opinion as directed at the Framework coalition.

“A minister’s relationship with the political forces ends after he is nominated and gains the confidence of parliament [...]. Whoever feels pressured or threatened, I am here,” he said.

Questions arise on the status of the Framework, and whether it is able to remain united in supporting the government that it formed.

A leader in the Framework said: “Al-Sadr is ready to move, and everything he does raises the anxiety of the leaders of the Shiite parties, while they got involved in major disputes over the sphere of influence within the government.”

Meanwhile, US Ambassador to Baghdad Alina Romanowski, held several meetings with anti-Washington Shiite leaders, such as the leader of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and the deputy speaker of parliament, Mohsen al-Mandalawi.

Although the official statements issued at the end of those meetings were brief in general, the atmosphere of “the coordination framework and the sharp polarization between its parties indicate an accelerated movement that paves the way for a new phase,” as stated by a Shiite leader who assumed a high position in the two previous governments.



Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
TT
20

Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Türkiye is training and advising Syria's armed forces and helping improve its defenses, and has no immediate plans for the withdrawal or relocation of its troops stationed there, Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters.

Türkiye has emerged as a key foreign ally of Syria's new government since opposition groups - some of them backed for years by Ankara - ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December to end his family's five-decade rule.

It has promised to help rebuild neighboring Syria and facilitate the return of millions of Syrian civil war refugees, and played a key role last month getting US and European sanctions on Syria lifted.

The newfound Turkish influence in Damascus has raised Israeli concerns and risked a standoff or worse in Syria between the regional powers.

In written answers to questions from Reuters, Guler said Türkiye and Israel, which carried out its latest airstrikes on southern Syria late on Tuesday, are continuing de-confliction talks to avoid military accidents in the country.

Türkiye’s overall priority in Syria is preserving its territorial integrity and unity, and ridding it of terrorism, he said, adding Ankara was supporting Damascus in these efforts.

"We have started providing military training and consultancy services, while taking steps to increase Syria's defense capacity," Guler said, without elaborating on those steps.

Named to the post by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan two years ago, Guler said it was too early to discuss possible withdrawal or relocation of the more than 20,000 Turkish troops in Syria.

Ankara controlled swathes of northern Syria and established dozens of bases there after several cross-border operations in recent years against Kurdish militants it deems terrorists.

This can "only be re-evaluated when Syria achieves peace and stability, when the threat of terrorism in the region is fully removed, when our border security is fully ensured, and when the honorable return of people who had to flee is done," he said.

NATO member Türkiye has accused Israel of undermining Syrian peace and rebuilding with its military operations there in recent months and, since late 2023, has also fiercely criticized Israel's assault on Gaza.

But the two regional powers have been quietly working to establish a de-confliction mechanism in Syria.

Guler described the talks as "technical level meetings to establish a de-confliction mechanism to prevent unwanted events" or direct conflict, as well as "a communication and coordination structure".

"Our efforts to form this line and make it fully operational continue. Yet it should not be forgotten that the de-confliction mechanism is not a normalization," he told Reuters.