Türkiye's Opposition Leader Looks to Emerge from Erdogan’s Shadow

This handout picture released by the Press Office of Türkiye's Republican People's Party (CHP) shows Kemal Kilicdaroglu leader of the Republican People party CHP speaking after he was confirmed as the Turkish opposition's joint candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's presidential elections in May, in Ankara, on March 6, 2023. (Republican People's Party (CHP) Press Service / AFP)
This handout picture released by the Press Office of Türkiye's Republican People's Party (CHP) shows Kemal Kilicdaroglu leader of the Republican People party CHP speaking after he was confirmed as the Turkish opposition's joint candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's presidential elections in May, in Ankara, on March 6, 2023. (Republican People's Party (CHP) Press Service / AFP)
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Türkiye's Opposition Leader Looks to Emerge from Erdogan’s Shadow

This handout picture released by the Press Office of Türkiye's Republican People's Party (CHP) shows Kemal Kilicdaroglu leader of the Republican People party CHP speaking after he was confirmed as the Turkish opposition's joint candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's presidential elections in May, in Ankara, on March 6, 2023. (Republican People's Party (CHP) Press Service / AFP)
This handout picture released by the Press Office of Türkiye's Republican People's Party (CHP) shows Kemal Kilicdaroglu leader of the Republican People party CHP speaking after he was confirmed as the Turkish opposition's joint candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's presidential elections in May, in Ankara, on March 6, 2023. (Republican People's Party (CHP) Press Service / AFP)

Stuck in Recep Tayyip Erdogan's shadow throughout his career, Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu believes his time may have come after suffering repeated election defeats and scorn from the man who has dominated politics for two decades.

An opposition alliance on Monday named Kilicdaroglu, chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), its candidate to take on President Erdogan in May 14 elections that are seen as perhaps the most consequential in Türkiye's modern history.

His prospects may have been boosted by a last-minute deal to reunite an opposition bloc that had splintered on Friday over whether he should be the candidate.

After a 72-hour political drama, the six parties agreed that the popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara would serve as his vice presidents should he overcome Erdogan.

Kilicdaroglu would also be capitalizing on the opposition's 2019 triumph when the CHP defeated Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) in Istanbul and other big cities in local elections, thanks to support from other opposition parties.

A cost-of-living crisis amid rampant inflation and years of economic turmoil have eroded Erdogan's support, giving Kilicdaroglu another advantage.

"We will rule Türkiye with consultations and compromise," Kilicdaroglu told several thousand supporters cheering outside the headquarters of the Felicity Party, one of the six in the opposition bloc.

"We will establish the rule of morality and justice together," he said.

Kilicdaroglu's detractors say he lacks Erdogan's power to rally and capture audiences, and has no clear or convincing vision for what a post-Erdogan era looks like.

His backers underscore his reputation as an ethical bureaucrat, said Gonul Tol, head of the Türkiye program at Washington-based think-tank Middle East Institute said.

"He is not a corrupt man. He doesn't steal," she said.

"He wants to conclude his political career as the person who has resuscitated the Turkish democracy, that's why he is the right man."

Tight election

Polls suggest a tight presidential and parliamentary vote, which will decide not just who leads Türkiye but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Yet many wonder whether the earnest and sometimes feisty former civil servant can defeat Erdogan, the country's longest-serving leader, whose campaigning charisma has helped deliver more than a dozen election victories over two decades.

His nomination comes a month after two huge earthquakes left Türkiye's southeast in ruins, and unleashed a wave of criticism of government over the poor disaster response and years of subpar building standards.

Initial polls since the quakes had suggested that Erdogan was able to largely retain his support despite the disaster. But the emergence of a united opposition, even after a delay in picking its candidate, could prove a bigger challenge for the strongman, analysts say.

Entry into politics

Erdogan's unorthodox economic policies, including interest rate cuts when inflation soared above 85% last year, have strained households and sparked a series of currency crashes since 2018.

The hardship presents a historic opening for Kilicdaroglu, a former economist, to end Erdogan's reign that began when AKP first came to power in 2002.

In that election, he entered parliament for the center-left CHP, a party established by modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk which has struggled to reach beyond its secularist grassroots towards move conservative Turks.

He has spoken in recent years of a desire to heal old wounds with devout Muslims and Kurds, including groups in Diyarbakir that he met and acknowledged that CHP had upset in the past.

But Kilicdaroglu has struggled to maintain momentum. Recent polling showed Erdogan's support had edged up since last summer thanks to measures including a raise in the minimum wage.

Following the earthquake, Kilicdaroglu adopted a more combative tone that helped him consolidate his own base, researcher Nezih Onur Kuru said. But it prevented him from appealing to indecisive voters.

"In times of crisis, center and right-wing voters - which make up over 60% of the electorate - seek unifying and result-oriented messages from politicians. Kilicdaroglu did not do this," said Kuru, of research firm Toplumsal Etki Arastirmalari Merkezi (TEAM).

"That did not help the overall opposition."

Rise through the ranks

Kilicdaroglu rose to prominence as the CHP's anti-graft campaigner, appearing on TV to brandish dossiers against officials which led to high-profile resignations. In 2009 he lost an election as the CHP's Istanbul mayoral candidate.

The following year, he was elected unopposed as CHP leader after his predecessor's resignation in the wake of scandal.

At that party convention, a campaign song blasted across a packed hall describing him as "a clean and honest" man.

Wearing a striped shirt and a black blazer, Kilicdaroglu told cheering supporters: "We are coming to power. We are coming to protect the rights of the poor, the oppressed, the workers and laborers".

His election fueled party hopes of a new start, but support for CHP has since failed to surpass about 25%.

Still, Kilicdaroglu is viewed as having quietly reformed the party and sidelined hardcore "Kemalists" espousing a rigid version of the ideas of Ataturk, while promoting members seen as more closely aligned with European social democratic values.

Political commentator Murat Yetkin has said Kilicdaroglu has so far not been able to transform the CHP fully due to a "static political culture".

’Gandhi Kemal’

Before entering politics, Kilicdaroglu, 74, worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Türkiye's Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. In speeches, Erdogan frequently disparages his performance in that role.

Born in the eastern Tunceli province, he is a civil servant's son and an Alevi, a group which makes up 15-20% of Türkiye's 85 million population and which follows a faith drawing on Shiiite Muslim, Sufi and Anatolian folk traditions.

Kilicdaroglu has acknowledged being Alevi but generally avoids the issue. Alevis' beliefs put them at odds with the country's Sunni Muslim majority.

Nicknamed by the Turkish media as "Gandhi Kemal" because of a passing resemblance with his slight, bespectacled appearance, he captured the public imagination in 2017 when he launched his 450 km "March for Justice" from Ankara to Istanbul over the arrest of a CHP deputy.

Kilcdaroglu orchestrated the CHP alliance with IYI and the Felicity Party in 2018 general elections, paving the way to the local election success the following year.

In Erdogan's first substantial blow as AKP leader, the CHP won mayoralties in Istanbul, Ankara and other cities thanks to the alliance and support of voters from a big pro-Kurdish party.

But Kilicdaroglu may struggle to replicate the 2019 victory on the national stage, where the CHP's previous election defeats loom large, said Emre Peker, Europe Director at Eurasia Group.

"Erdogan will paint Kilicdaroglu as a loser," he said.



Yemeni Platform Warns of Houthis Expanding Influence to Horn of Africa

Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
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Yemeni Platform Warns of Houthis Expanding Influence to Horn of Africa

Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)

A Yemeni platform focused on organized crime and money-laundering, PTOC, has warned of the dangers of the Iran-backed Houthi militias expanding their activities and influence to the Horn of Africa.

In a report, it said the militias were actively seeking to expand their operations there with the direct supervision of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and in coordination with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which is also backed by Tehran.

This is the first time that a report is filed about the Houthi plans in the Horn of Africa.

Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of the report that details the Houthis’ expansionist plans at Iran’s direction. It discusses the Houthis’ smuggling and armament operations, recruitment and training of Africans, and identifies the officials responsible for the militias’ project in the Horn of Africa.

Overseeing the foreign expansion are leading Houthi officials Abdulwahed Abu Ras, Al-Hassan al-Marrani and Abu Haidar al-Qahoum, as well as head of the so-called security and intelligence agency Abdulhakim al-Khiwani and foreign operations agency official Hassan al-Kahlani, or Abu Shaheed.

The report also highlighted the role played by deputy Houthi foreign minister Hussein al-Azzi through diplomatic sources and figures in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya to forge intelligence, security, political and logistical ties.

Training

The report said the Houthis were keen on establishing “sensitive intelligence centers” throughout the Horn of Africa and countries surrounding Yemen. They are working on training cadres “as soon as possible” so that they can be “effectively activated at the right time to achieve the Quranic mission and common interests of all resistance countries, especially Iran, Gaza and Lebanon.”

The report obtained documents that reveal how the Houthis have established ties with African figures to “complete preparations and operations in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa to support the Houthis should they come under any international political or diplomatic pressure.”

Leading officials

The report identified several Houthi figures who are overseeing these operations, starting with IRGC official “Abu Mahdi” to the owner of the smallest boat that is used for smuggling weapons in the Red Sea.

It also spoke of the relations forged with the al-Shabaab al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia and the African mafia to smuggle Africans to Yemen in what the report described as one of the most dangerous human trafficking and organized crimes.

The PTOC report said the Houthis have recruited Africans from various countries, especially in wake of the militias’ coup in Sanaa in 2014. They have been subjected to cultural and military training and deployed at various fronts, such as Taiz, the west coast, Marib and the border.

Some of the recruits have returned to their home countries to expand the Houthi influence there.

Abu Ras and al-Kahlani

The report named Abdulwahed Naji Mohammed Abu Ras, or Abu Hussein, as the Houthis’ top official in expanding their influence in the Horn of Africa. A native of the Jawf province, he was tasked directly by top Iranian political officials and the IRGC in running this file.

Among his major tasks is coordinating with the IRGC and Houthis and directly overseeing the smuggling of IRGC and Hezbollah members from and to Yemen.

Abu Ras has avoided the spotlight for several years during which he has handled the Houthis’ most dangerous intelligence and political files.

He served as secretary of foreign affairs at the security and intelligence agency until Hassan al-Kahlani's appointment to that post. Abu Ras was then promoted to his current position at the recommendation of Houthi leader Abdulmalek al-Houthi and the IRGC leadership.

Al-Kahlani, also known as Abu Shaheed, was born in the Hajjah province in 1984. He is a known Houthi security operative as he grew up among the Houthis in Saada and Sanaa and joined the militias at a young age.

The report said al-Kahlani was part of the Sanaa terrorist cell that carried out several bombings and assassinations in wake of the killing of Houthi founder Hassan al-Houthi in 2004. He was also among the Houthi leaderships that took part in the coup in Sanaa.

Al-Kahlani now works directly under Abu Ras. He is known for his close ties to the IRGC and has been using this relationship to impose himself as the top official in the security and intelligence agency, exposing the struggle for power between him and the actual head of the agency Abdulhakim al-Khiwani.