US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
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US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)

US officials and experts agree that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Chinese mediation and sponsorship, constituted a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

Some observers believe the agreement may rearrange alliances and rivalries in the region, leaving the United States on the sidelines, at least temporarily.

The US, which has been the central actor in the Middle East, now finds itself on the sidelines during a moment of significant change, whereas China, which played only a secondary role in the region, has suddenly transformed itself into the new power player.

Publicly, the White House welcomed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did not express an explicit "concern" about Beijing's role.

However, President Joe Biden's aides suggested too much was being made of the breakthrough, scoffing at suggestions that it indicated any erosion in US influence in the region, according to the New York Times.

The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official briefed on the talks between Tehran and Riyadh, saying that the United States was updated on the negotiations from the beginning.

He indicated that the Saudis had made it clear to US officials that they were interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Iran.

The Saudis also made it clear that they were unwilling to make such a deal without solid guarantees from the Iranians that attacks against them would stop and that they would reduce military support for the Houthis.

The official emphasized that Oman also played an important role, prompting Biden to contact the Sultan this week.

Analysts said it remained unclear how far the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would go. After decades of sometimes violent competition for leadership in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, reopening embassies closed in 2016 represents only a first step.

It is conceivable that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be carried out in the end, given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to work out details.

The key to the agreement was a commitment by Iran to stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom.

Despite this, US officials expressed doubts that Iran would live up to its new commitments. They believe that Tehran's turn to Beijing to mediate with the Saudis.

However, it increases China's presence in the region, and also reflects its quest to escape from the isolation imposed by Washington.

Biden administration officials say Iran is under pressure and suffering from deep economic distress because of American sanctions. But that does not mean China, one of the signatories to the original nuclear deal, wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either.

If Beijing has new sway in Tehran, American officials hope it could use it to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

However, it is disconcerting for many veteran US policymakers to see China playing such an outsize role in a region, reflecting two types of approaches to the Saudi Iranian agreement.

Some condemned Biden's policies, blaming them for the decline in Washington's relations with its regional allies and its neglect of the opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in Arab relations with Israel. At the same time, others called for what can be practically achieved, despite suspicions concerning Iran's role.

Head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz described the renewed Iranian-Saudi ties due to Chinese mediation as a "lose, lose, and lose for American interests."

Whereas the deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based nonprofit group, Amy Hawthorne, said there was no way around it, saying: "this is a big deal."

"The United States could not have brokered such a deal with Iran since we have no relations. But in a larger sense, China's prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically. It outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office."

Matt Duss, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that anything that lowers the temperature between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reduces the possibility of conflict is a good thing.

"It is also a potentially encouraging sign that countries in the region can pursue such initiatives without requiring lots of goodies and guarantees from the US," Duss added.

Though reducing China's influence in the Middle East and other parts of the world remains a priority for the Biden administration, it is of "two minds" about the agreement, according to John Alterman, a Middle East scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Alterman said: "It wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their security, but it does not want Saudi Arabia freelancing and undermining US security strategies."



Saudi Defense Minister: Time for STC to Withdraw from Yemen's Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Defense Minister: Time for STC to Withdraw from Yemen's Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said on Saturday it “was time for the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen to listen to reason and prioritize public interest and unity of ranks and respond to the Saudi-Emirati mediation to end the escalation.”

In a post on the X platform, he called on the STC to withdraw its forces from the eastern Hadhramaut and al-Mahra provinces and restore control to the National Shield and local authorities.

Prince Khalid said Saudi Arabia formed the Arab coalition to restore legitimacy in Yemen to help the country reclaim control over all of its territories.

The liberation of southern provinces was a pivotal development towards that goal, he stressed.

Saudi Arabia “views the southern issue as fundamental” to Yemen and it will not “exploit it in conflicts that do not serve” the nation, he added.

The Kingdom had brought together all Yemeni components to the Riyadh conference to come up with a clear path for a comprehensive political solution, including the southern issue, he went on to say.

The conference paved the way for a “just solution to their cause through dialogue and without the use of forces.”

“Saudi Arabia approved the decision to move the base of power so that the southerners could have a greater role in state institutions. It consolidated partnership instead of elimination or imposing a status quo through forces. Saudi Arabia also presented Yemen with economic support, as well as development and humanitarian initiatives that helped ease the suffering of the people,” Prince Khalid added.

“Saudi Arabia and its partners in the coalition offered sacrifices with their Yemeni brothers in liberating Aden and other provinces,” he noted. “The Kingdom has always sought that these sacrifices be made in the name of reclaiming territories and restoring the state, not as a path towards new conflicts.”

It had hoped that these sacrifices would have been “invested in the security of all Yemeni people, not exploited for petty gains, whereby the unfortunate developments in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra since the beginning of December 2025 have led to the division in ranks that should be united against the enemy.”

“The developments have laid waste to the sacrifices of our sons and Yemeni people and have harmed the just southern issue,” stressed Prince Khalid.

He noted that several southern leaderships and figures have exhibited “awareness and wisdom in supporting efforts to end the escalation in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra and prevent the secure southern provinces from being dragged into futile conflicts.”

“They are aware of the major challenges facing Yemen and will not allow saboteurs to achieve their goals in the country and the region,” he remarked.

He declared that the “southern issue will remain part of any comprehensive political solution. The cause will not be neglected or marginalized. It should be resolved through consensus, adhering to commitments and building trust between all Yemeni segments, not through adventures that only serve everyone's enemy.”


Arab Coalition: We Will Deal with Military Moves that Violate De-escalation Efforts

Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Turki al-Malki. (SPA)
Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Turki al-Malki. (SPA)
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Arab Coalition: We Will Deal with Military Moves that Violate De-escalation Efforts

Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Turki al-Malki. (SPA)
Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Turki al-Malki. (SPA)

Spokesman of the Arab coalition to support legitimacy in Yemen Brigadier General Turki al-Malki said on Saturday that “any military moves that violate de-escalation efforts will be dealt with directly to protect lives and ensure the success of Saudi and Emirati efforts.”

The statement is in response to a request by Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Dr. Rashad al-Alimi, who called for immediate steps to protect civilians in the eastern Hadhramaut and al-Mahra provinces in wake of the “grave and horrific” violations by members of the Southern Transitional Council (STC).

It is also in continuation of the strenuous joint efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to de-escalate the situation and ensure the withdrawal of STC forces, who have been demanded to cede control to the National Shield forces and allow the local authorities to carry out their duties.

Malki underlined the Arab coalition’s continued firm support for the legitimate Yemeni government.

He also urged all sides to assume their national responsibility, exercise restraint and comply with efforts to reach peaceful solutions that preserve security and stability.


Saudi Arabia Carries out Warning Strike on Yemen’s Hadhramaut, STC Says ‘Open to Coordination’

Southern forces patrol during a rally calling for South Yemen's independence, in the southern port city of Aden, Yemen, 25 December 2025. (EPA)
Southern forces patrol during a rally calling for South Yemen's independence, in the southern port city of Aden, Yemen, 25 December 2025. (EPA)
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Saudi Arabia Carries out Warning Strike on Yemen’s Hadhramaut, STC Says ‘Open to Coordination’

Southern forces patrol during a rally calling for South Yemen's independence, in the southern port city of Aden, Yemen, 25 December 2025. (EPA)
Southern forces patrol during a rally calling for South Yemen's independence, in the southern port city of Aden, Yemen, 25 December 2025. (EPA)

Saudi Arabia called for calm in eastern Yemen, urging an end to unilateral military moves and for the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces to return to their former positions outside of the Hadhramaut and al-Mahra provinces.

Riyadh, meanwhile, demonstrated its stance on the ground by carrying out a warning air strike, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The strike sought to deliver a message that it will not allow a new status quo to be imposed on the ground by force and that it will not allow the violation of institutional frameworks that handle security in the eastern provinces.

It warned that any further escalation will be met with firmer measures.

Meanwhile, the STC, in an attempt to justify its military moves, said they were in “response to calls from residents of the south” and an attempt to confront terrorist threats and block Houthi smuggling routes.

The STC added that it was “open to any coordination or arrangements with Saudi Arabia”, questioning the airstrike, which it said “does not serve understandings.”

Observers told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia will welcome the coordination and arrangements if they helped end the escalation, led to the withdrawal of the STC and allowed the National Shield forces and the local authority to take over Hadhramaut and al-Mahra without needing to resort to force.

They stressed that the strike will lead to delivering the clear message that Riyadh may impose red lines by force to prevent any escalation.

Sourced told Asharq Al-Awsat that any future settlement over restoring the unity of Yemeni ranks will condition a return to the former status quo.