US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
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US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)

US officials and experts agree that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Chinese mediation and sponsorship, constituted a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

Some observers believe the agreement may rearrange alliances and rivalries in the region, leaving the United States on the sidelines, at least temporarily.

The US, which has been the central actor in the Middle East, now finds itself on the sidelines during a moment of significant change, whereas China, which played only a secondary role in the region, has suddenly transformed itself into the new power player.

Publicly, the White House welcomed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did not express an explicit "concern" about Beijing's role.

However, President Joe Biden's aides suggested too much was being made of the breakthrough, scoffing at suggestions that it indicated any erosion in US influence in the region, according to the New York Times.

The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official briefed on the talks between Tehran and Riyadh, saying that the United States was updated on the negotiations from the beginning.

He indicated that the Saudis had made it clear to US officials that they were interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Iran.

The Saudis also made it clear that they were unwilling to make such a deal without solid guarantees from the Iranians that attacks against them would stop and that they would reduce military support for the Houthis.

The official emphasized that Oman also played an important role, prompting Biden to contact the Sultan this week.

Analysts said it remained unclear how far the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would go. After decades of sometimes violent competition for leadership in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, reopening embassies closed in 2016 represents only a first step.

It is conceivable that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be carried out in the end, given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to work out details.

The key to the agreement was a commitment by Iran to stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom.

Despite this, US officials expressed doubts that Iran would live up to its new commitments. They believe that Tehran's turn to Beijing to mediate with the Saudis.

However, it increases China's presence in the region, and also reflects its quest to escape from the isolation imposed by Washington.

Biden administration officials say Iran is under pressure and suffering from deep economic distress because of American sanctions. But that does not mean China, one of the signatories to the original nuclear deal, wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either.

If Beijing has new sway in Tehran, American officials hope it could use it to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

However, it is disconcerting for many veteran US policymakers to see China playing such an outsize role in a region, reflecting two types of approaches to the Saudi Iranian agreement.

Some condemned Biden's policies, blaming them for the decline in Washington's relations with its regional allies and its neglect of the opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in Arab relations with Israel. At the same time, others called for what can be practically achieved, despite suspicions concerning Iran's role.

Head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz described the renewed Iranian-Saudi ties due to Chinese mediation as a "lose, lose, and lose for American interests."

Whereas the deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based nonprofit group, Amy Hawthorne, said there was no way around it, saying: "this is a big deal."

"The United States could not have brokered such a deal with Iran since we have no relations. But in a larger sense, China's prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically. It outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office."

Matt Duss, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that anything that lowers the temperature between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reduces the possibility of conflict is a good thing.

"It is also a potentially encouraging sign that countries in the region can pursue such initiatives without requiring lots of goodies and guarantees from the US," Duss added.

Though reducing China's influence in the Middle East and other parts of the world remains a priority for the Biden administration, it is of "two minds" about the agreement, according to John Alterman, a Middle East scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Alterman said: "It wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their security, but it does not want Saudi Arabia freelancing and undermining US security strategies."



MWL Condemns Terrorist Bombing in Afghanistan’s Capital

The Muslim World League (MWL) logo
The Muslim World League (MWL) logo
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MWL Condemns Terrorist Bombing in Afghanistan’s Capital

The Muslim World League (MWL) logo
The Muslim World League (MWL) logo

The Muslim World League (MWL) condemned on Thursday the terrorist bombing at a restaurant in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul that left several killed and wounded, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

In a statement issued by the General Secretariat, MWL Secretary-General and Organization of Muslim Scholars Chairman Sheikh Dr. Mohammed bin Abdulkarim Al-Issa reaffirmed the MWL’s firm stance rejecting violence and terrorism in all forms and under any pretext.

He expressed solidarity with Afghanistan in confronting all threats to its security, stability, and the safety of its people.

Al-Issa expressed the MWL’s sincere condolences to the Afghan people and the families of the victims.


Saudi Foreign Minister Meets with British, French Counterparts

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan (Middle East)
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan (Middle East)
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Saudi Foreign Minister Meets with British, French Counterparts

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan (Middle East)
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan (Middle East)

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah held separate meetings with his counterparts from the UK and France on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the Saudi Press Agency reported Wednesday.

He met with Yvette Cooper, the United Kingdom Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs where they reviewed bilateral relations and the latest regional developments, as well as joint efforts to address them.

The Saudi minister also held talks with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot. Discussions highlighted the latest regional developments and joint efforts aimed at achieving security and stability in the region.


Al-Wali to Asharq Al-Awsat: Riyadh Talks a Pivotal Moment for Yemen’s Southern Cause

Former Yemeni minister and veteran southern politician Abdel Nasser Al-Wali speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat.
Former Yemeni minister and veteran southern politician Abdel Nasser Al-Wali speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat.
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Al-Wali to Asharq Al-Awsat: Riyadh Talks a Pivotal Moment for Yemen’s Southern Cause

Former Yemeni minister and veteran southern politician Abdel Nasser Al-Wali speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat.
Former Yemeni minister and veteran southern politician Abdel Nasser Al-Wali speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat.

Former Yemeni minister and veteran southern politician Abdel Nasser Al-Wali described the meeting of Yemen’s southern leaders in Riyadh for consultations and dialogue on their cause on Sunday as a pivotal moment in its history, calling for the opening created by Saudi Arabia to be channeled into a political process that delivers lasting peace.

Speaking on the Asharq Al-Awsat podcast with Gulf affairs editor Badr Al-Qahtani, Al-Wali said Riyadh was not merely a diplomatic stop, but a place close to the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, offering a chance to correct past shortcomings in conveying the southern voice.

The veteran Yemeni politician said southerners now faced a “huge opportunity” under Saudi sponsorship, noting that Riyadh had taken the initiative to invite discussions on the issue and “left the matter in our hands.”

He pointed to Saudi Arabia’s role in bringing the parties together without imposing guardianship and in supporting whatever they agree upon without interference.

He said Saudi assurances had been explicit: “The opinion is yours, the decision is yours. We are sponsors and will not impose anything on you. Raise your ceiling to the sky.”

Al-Wali said a message from Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman was clear and direct.

“The southern cause is just, with historical and social dimensions, and the Kingdom will not abandon the people of the south and will stand with their will,” he remarked.

“It is enough for the southern voice to reach Saudi Arabia, and for it to understand the justice of the pain that has accumulated since unification,” he stressed.

On preparations for the Riyadh Conference for Yemeni southern dialogue, Al-Wali said discussions would address the shape of the state and its system “with an open ceiling,” to be decided by consensus without exclusion.

The focus was on restoring the state as a path toward dignity, security, stability, development, and prosperity for people, he went on to say.

“The South has room for everyone. There are no intentions of marginalization or exclusion. Any other projects are not sidelined, but discussed,” he assured.

Al-Wali addressed a message to the southern people, saying: “Trust us. We represent in Riyadh those who authorized us,” in a reference to not compromising the cause or taking decisions that contradict popular will.

In another message, he said: “The Saudis will find from the southerners only what pleases God and pleases them, while preserving the bonds of neighborhood, blood, kinship, and shared interests.”

Turning to the roots of the issue, Al-Wali said Yemeni unity had not been an “invasion” or imposed by force, but a voluntary move toward Sanaa “with open hearts,” in the hope of a larger state, a broader economy, and deeper development.

He said that if the price of stability, calm, and development were Yemen’s return to two states, then it would be better, in his view, to have two neighboring states bound by affection, with flexible and smooth economic and social relations and strong fraternal ties, rather than antagonism that “paralyzed both peoples.”

Outlining his vision for a future state, Al-Wali presented the contours of a “federal southern state” that would grant governorates room to contribute to development, investment, and wealth, with equality in rights and duties and fairness in the distribution of resources so that they reach all who deserve them.

He reiterated the centrality of Saudi Arabia’s role, saying the Kingdom’s weight was “very balanced” regionally and globally, and that its engagement represented a historic opportunity to achieve peace “without it being followed by war.”

Asked how he found Riyadh, Al-Wali replied: “As I have always known it. A country of security and stability. Calm and serenity. Love and peace. You come to it, your soul settles, and you feel reassured.”

“Their promises are sincere and are not broken,” he stressed.