US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
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US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)

US officials and experts agree that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Chinese mediation and sponsorship, constituted a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

Some observers believe the agreement may rearrange alliances and rivalries in the region, leaving the United States on the sidelines, at least temporarily.

The US, which has been the central actor in the Middle East, now finds itself on the sidelines during a moment of significant change, whereas China, which played only a secondary role in the region, has suddenly transformed itself into the new power player.

Publicly, the White House welcomed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did not express an explicit "concern" about Beijing's role.

However, President Joe Biden's aides suggested too much was being made of the breakthrough, scoffing at suggestions that it indicated any erosion in US influence in the region, according to the New York Times.

The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official briefed on the talks between Tehran and Riyadh, saying that the United States was updated on the negotiations from the beginning.

He indicated that the Saudis had made it clear to US officials that they were interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Iran.

The Saudis also made it clear that they were unwilling to make such a deal without solid guarantees from the Iranians that attacks against them would stop and that they would reduce military support for the Houthis.

The official emphasized that Oman also played an important role, prompting Biden to contact the Sultan this week.

Analysts said it remained unclear how far the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would go. After decades of sometimes violent competition for leadership in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, reopening embassies closed in 2016 represents only a first step.

It is conceivable that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be carried out in the end, given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to work out details.

The key to the agreement was a commitment by Iran to stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom.

Despite this, US officials expressed doubts that Iran would live up to its new commitments. They believe that Tehran's turn to Beijing to mediate with the Saudis.

However, it increases China's presence in the region, and also reflects its quest to escape from the isolation imposed by Washington.

Biden administration officials say Iran is under pressure and suffering from deep economic distress because of American sanctions. But that does not mean China, one of the signatories to the original nuclear deal, wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either.

If Beijing has new sway in Tehran, American officials hope it could use it to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

However, it is disconcerting for many veteran US policymakers to see China playing such an outsize role in a region, reflecting two types of approaches to the Saudi Iranian agreement.

Some condemned Biden's policies, blaming them for the decline in Washington's relations with its regional allies and its neglect of the opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in Arab relations with Israel. At the same time, others called for what can be practically achieved, despite suspicions concerning Iran's role.

Head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz described the renewed Iranian-Saudi ties due to Chinese mediation as a "lose, lose, and lose for American interests."

Whereas the deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based nonprofit group, Amy Hawthorne, said there was no way around it, saying: "this is a big deal."

"The United States could not have brokered such a deal with Iran since we have no relations. But in a larger sense, China's prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically. It outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office."

Matt Duss, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that anything that lowers the temperature between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reduces the possibility of conflict is a good thing.

"It is also a potentially encouraging sign that countries in the region can pursue such initiatives without requiring lots of goodies and guarantees from the US," Duss added.

Though reducing China's influence in the Middle East and other parts of the world remains a priority for the Biden administration, it is of "two minds" about the agreement, according to John Alterman, a Middle East scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Alterman said: "It wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their security, but it does not want Saudi Arabia freelancing and undermining US security strategies."



Gulf, UN Condemnation of Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and GCC Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi meet in New York. (GCC)
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and GCC Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi meet in New York. (GCC)
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Gulf, UN Condemnation of Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and GCC Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi meet in New York. (GCC)
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and GCC Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi meet in New York. (GCC)

The United Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) condemned on Saturday the terrorist Houthi militia's attacks on Saudi Arabia, its targeting of civilian objects, and their dangerous impact on regional security and stability.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and GCC Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi exchanged views on the latest regional developments during their meeting on Saturday on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York.

The two sides discussed several regional issues and the efforts exerted toward them. Guterres praised the development, progress, and prosperity achieved by the Gulf states, as well as their regional and international efforts to promote security and stability.

Guterres and AlBudaiwi reviewed issues of mutual interest, as well as cooperation relations between the GCC and the UN, and ways to boost and consolidate them to serve shared interests.

The UN Security Council had warned of the consequences of the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the threats posed to international navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, considering that the militia's military actions in Yemen, alongside its targeting of Saudi territory and commercial shipping, threaten to expand the regional conflict, undermine maritime security and international trade, and hinder regional and international efforts aimed at achieving peace in Yemen.

In a statement on Friday night, the Council members strongly condemned in the strongest terms the ongoing attacks launched by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, including those that caused damage to civilians and energy infrastructure, and resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children.

The Council stressed the importance of maintaining the safety of commercial vessels and their crews, the necessity of adhering to international law, particularly the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and respecting navigational rights and freedoms, at a time when military developments in Yemen raise concerns regarding the security of sea lanes and the movement of international trade.

The Council expressed its solidarity with Saudi Arabia in confronting attacks that affect civilians and civilian objects on its territory, affirming its inherent right to self-defense in accordance with international law.

The Council members demanded that the Houthis immediately cease their attacks affecting civilians and civilian objects, expressing their grave concern over reports regarding the killing and injuring of civilians, as well as the destruction of civilian objects and infrastructure resulting from these attacks


Coalition Destroys Ballistic Missile Fired by Houthis at Riyadh

Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Coalition Destroys Ballistic Missile Fired by Houthis at Riyadh

Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Arab Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen announced that Saudi air defenses successfully intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the terrorist Houthi militia towards Riyadh on Saturday morning.

Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki said the Houthi escalation and their continued attempts to target civilians and civilian areas in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, home to over 8 million citizens and residents, underscore the militia’s intransigence and its persistence in deliberately and systematically targeting civilians and civilian objects in a hostile and terrorist manner.

Al-Malki added that the Houthis attempted to target civilians in the cities of Taif, Baysh, Yanbu and Farasan, saying the air defenses thwarted all the hostile attempts.

In a statement on Saturday, Al-Malki underlined the Coalition command’s inherent right to take whatever measures it deems appropriate, and in accordance with international humanitarian law and its customary rules, to deter the behavior of the terrorist Houthi militia.

The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia as a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, a threat to its security, stability, and territorial integrity, and a blatant breach of international law and the United Nations Charter.

It stressed Amman's absolute solidarity with Riyadh and its support for all measures it takes to protect its security, stability, assets, and the safety of its citizens and residents.

The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also strongly condemned the missile attack that targeted Riyadh, considering the assault on Saudi Arabia's security a grave violation of international law and a threat to regional security and stability.

In a statement, the ministry expressed Lebanon's full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and its support for the Kingdom in confronting any attack targeting its security and territorial integrity, reiterating its categorical rejection of any targeting of cities and civilian facilities or placing the lives of civilians in danger.


Saudi Arabia Lifts Early Warning Alerts Issued in Ten Cities

Saudi Civil Defense (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Civil Defense (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Lifts Early Warning Alerts Issued in Ten Cities

Saudi Civil Defense (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Civil Defense (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi Civil Defense sent an all clear on Saturday after issuing alerts for potential ⁠danger in several cities of the kingdom as part of emergency procedures to alert residents.

The alerts included Riyadh, al-Kharj, Khamis Mushait, Jeddah, Taif, Yanbu, AlUla, Jazan, Farasan and Abha.

The sirens had been activated in those cities and governorates as part of the emergency early warning system before the Civil Defense later declared that the danger had passed.

The Civil Defense stressed the importance of refraining from circulating rumors and videos from unknown sources, emphasizing that information related to emergency situations should be obtained from official sources. Residents should comply with instructions and guidance issued by the relevant authorities, it added.