US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
TT

US Analysts: Chinese Mediation Represents a Challenge for the US in the Middle East

Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)
Saudi and Iranian delegations signing the agreement under China's mediation (SPA)

US officials and experts agree that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Chinese mediation and sponsorship, constituted a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

Some observers believe the agreement may rearrange alliances and rivalries in the region, leaving the United States on the sidelines, at least temporarily.

The US, which has been the central actor in the Middle East, now finds itself on the sidelines during a moment of significant change, whereas China, which played only a secondary role in the region, has suddenly transformed itself into the new power player.

Publicly, the White House welcomed the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did not express an explicit "concern" about Beijing's role.

However, President Joe Biden's aides suggested too much was being made of the breakthrough, scoffing at suggestions that it indicated any erosion in US influence in the region, according to the New York Times.

The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official briefed on the talks between Tehran and Riyadh, saying that the United States was updated on the negotiations from the beginning.

He indicated that the Saudis had made it clear to US officials that they were interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Iran.

The Saudis also made it clear that they were unwilling to make such a deal without solid guarantees from the Iranians that attacks against them would stop and that they would reduce military support for the Houthis.

The official emphasized that Oman also played an important role, prompting Biden to contact the Sultan this week.

Analysts said it remained unclear how far the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran would go. After decades of sometimes violent competition for leadership in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, reopening embassies closed in 2016 represents only a first step.

It is conceivable that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be carried out in the end, given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to work out details.

The key to the agreement was a commitment by Iran to stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom.

Despite this, US officials expressed doubts that Iran would live up to its new commitments. They believe that Tehran's turn to Beijing to mediate with the Saudis.

However, it increases China's presence in the region, and also reflects its quest to escape from the isolation imposed by Washington.

Biden administration officials say Iran is under pressure and suffering from deep economic distress because of American sanctions. But that does not mean China, one of the signatories to the original nuclear deal, wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either.

If Beijing has new sway in Tehran, American officials hope it could use it to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

However, it is disconcerting for many veteran US policymakers to see China playing such an outsize role in a region, reflecting two types of approaches to the Saudi Iranian agreement.

Some condemned Biden's policies, blaming them for the decline in Washington's relations with its regional allies and its neglect of the opportunity to achieve a breakthrough in Arab relations with Israel. At the same time, others called for what can be practically achieved, despite suspicions concerning Iran's role.

Head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz described the renewed Iranian-Saudi ties due to Chinese mediation as a "lose, lose, and lose for American interests."

Whereas the deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington-based nonprofit group, Amy Hawthorne, said there was no way around it, saying: "this is a big deal."

"The United States could not have brokered such a deal with Iran since we have no relations. But in a larger sense, China's prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically. It outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office."

Matt Duss, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that anything that lowers the temperature between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reduces the possibility of conflict is a good thing.

"It is also a potentially encouraging sign that countries in the region can pursue such initiatives without requiring lots of goodies and guarantees from the US," Duss added.

Though reducing China's influence in the Middle East and other parts of the world remains a priority for the Biden administration, it is of "two minds" about the agreement, according to John Alterman, a Middle East scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Alterman said: "It wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their security, but it does not want Saudi Arabia freelancing and undermining US security strategies."



Saudi Crown Prince: 2025 Budget Underscores Commitment to Strengthen Kingdom’s Economy

Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. (SPA)
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. (SPA)
TT

Saudi Crown Prince: 2025 Budget Underscores Commitment to Strengthen Kingdom’s Economy

Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. (SPA)
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. (SPA)

Following the approval of the Kingdom's general budget for the fiscal year 2025 on Tuesday, Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince, Prime Minister and Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, underscored the Kingdom's significant local, regional, and international achievements, including advanced positions in global indices.

This underlines the robustness of Saudi Arabia's financial standing, the government's success in navigating global economic challenges and its dedication to fulfilling the goals of Vision 2030, he said in a statement.

Crown Prince Mohammed had earlier chaired a cabinet meeting to approve the state budget.  

Total expenditure for 2025 is projected at 1.285 trillion riyals, which is the same as projected in September and likely to equate to about 30% of GDP over the next three years. Total revenue is forecast at 1.184 trillion riyals.   

The Crown Prince directed ministers and officials to commit, each in his capacity, to implementing the programs, strategies, and development and social projects included in the budget, consistent with the goals of the Kingdom's Vision 2030.

The 2025 budget demonstrates the government's commitment to the country's advancement and citizen welfare, and attributed the nation's accomplishments to God Almighty, to the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and to the diligent efforts of the Kingdom's citizens, stressed Crown Prince Mohammed.

He emphasized the role of government spending in diversifying the Kingdom's economy by focusing on empowering promising sectors, boosting the investment environment, and stimulating industries. He highlighted the efforts to increase local content and non-oil exports, while continuing to implement programs to realize the Kingdom's Vision 2030 and national strategies, and boosting the private sector's role in contributing to investment projects, an approach that enables the government to maintain its focus on comprehensive and sustainable economic development.

The government's efforts continue, guided by systematic planning for the medium and long term, taking into account regional and global economic developments and challenges to ensure the achievement of strategic goals while preserving economic gains and maintaining financial sustainability.

The Crown Prince stressed that the positive indicators of the Saudi economy are a result of the ongoing reforms under Vision 2030. The Kingdom is projected to have the second-fastest GDP growth rate among major economies next year, estimated at 4.6%. This growth is fueled by the increasing contribution of non-oil activities, which reached a record 52% in 2024.

Additionally, the unemployment rate for Saudis fell to a historic low of 7.1% by the second quarter, nearing the Vision 2030 target of 7%. The participation rate of Saudi women in the labor market rose to 35.4% until the second quarter, surpassing the vision's goal of 30%.

Net foreign investment inflows totaled SAR21.2 billion in the first half of 2024, reflecting the government's commitment, under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, to supporting all segments of society.

The Crown Prince underlined the crucial role of the Public Investment Fund and National Development Fund, along with its development funds, in supporting economic stability and driving comprehensive development. These funds are pivotal to diversifying the Kingdom's economy and fostering investment, to achieve the objectives of Vision 2030.

The 2025 budget underscores the commitment to strengthening the robustness and flexibility of the Kingdom's economy, which is growing rapidly and creating unprecedented opportunities, said Crown Prince Mohammed. This is achieved by maintaining sustainable levels of public debt and substantial government reserves, along with a flexible spending policy that enables the Kingdom to address global economic challenges and fluctuations.

He noted that the financial reforms implemented by the Kingdom, through the government's adoption of financial policies that maintain financial sustainability and efficient financial planning, have positively impacted its credit ratings.

He stressed the government's commitment to fostering economic growth through transformational spending, while ensuring financial sustainability in the medium and long term.  

He highlighted efforts to increase the private sector's role in the economy, enabling it to become the primary driver of economic growth by creating a conducive investment environment and supporting small and medium enterprises.  

This strategy aims to build a strong and promising business sector that boosts the capabilities of human resources in various projects, and enables the government to remain focused on promoting economic growth to ensure financial sustainability and the continuation of projects with economic and social benefits.  

Moreover, efforts will continue in developing infrastructure and improving the quality of essential services for citizens, residents, and visitors.

The Crown Prince emphasized that the 2025 budget reaffirms the Kingdom's commitment to continuing regulatory and structural reforms and developing policies aimed at enhancing the standard of living, empowering the private sector, and improving the business environment. This includes preparing an annual borrowing plan in line with the medium-term debt strategy, which aims to maintain debt sustainability, diversify local and foreign financing sources, and access global debt markets.

He highlighted the Kingdom's pivotal role in supporting regional and global economic and financial stability, leveraging its robust economy to overcome challenges.

Acknowledging the fact that the Saudi economy is an integral part of the global economy, the Crown Prince said that it is subject to global developments, like any other economy, and this necessitates continuous efforts to address global challenges, through long-term financial planning.  

He added that the focus remains on achieving and implementing programs and initiatives while committing to efficient spending, and ensuring the meticulous and transparent execution of all budget items, and on completing the programs and projects outlined in Vision 2030, and the national and sectoral strategies.

The Crown Prince stressed the Kingdom's clear approach and highlighted that the government's primary goal, under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, is to serve citizens and residents, safeguard the development achieved so far, and continue humanitarian endeavors, both domestically and internationally, in line with the teachings of true Islam.