Egypt Confirms Drop in Unemployment

An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
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Egypt Confirms Drop in Unemployment

An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)

Egypt announced that unemployment rates dropped to the lowest in nearly 19 years, citing several international institutions that projected further job growth in the coming years.

The Cabinet Media Center published a report noting a positive change in the international view of the country's unemployment and employment levels.

The World Bank expected unemployment to continue to decline, reaching seven percent, by the year 2023/2024, noting that the impact of the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic on unemployment has started to recede.

The report reviewed the quarterly unemployment rate in Egypt and stated that it is at its lowest level since 2004.

The unemployment rate reached 7.2 percent in the first, second, and fourth quarters of 2022, 7.4 percent during the third quarter, 7.4 percent in the first and fourth quarters of 2021, 7.3 percent in the second quarter, and 7.5 percent in the third quarter.

The center attributed the decline to state efforts in adopting a national strategy to confront unemployment. The strategy aims to achieve sustainable development plans and work through systematic foundations to address the needs of the labor market, qualify the working cadres and raise their efficiency and readiness.

It quoted the "Oxford Business Group" as saying that Egypt could benefit from its economic potential within the framework of generating considerable and sustainable social benefits, evident through the drop in unemployment rates.

The Group said Egypt needed to reduce unemployment, which reached 12.6 percent in 2016 and should focus on vocational training to prepare skilled workers.

The report reviewed the most important indicators of the labor market, with the labor force increasing by 9.4 percent, or 30.3 million individuals, in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 27.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The number of workers increased by 17 percent, or 28.2 million individuals, in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 24.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Unemployed individuals decreased by 38.9 percent, reaching 2.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The report discussed the most important economic activities contributing to creating new job opportunities, reviewing the most important economic activities to which the most significant number of workers shifted during the fourth quarter of 2022.

Moreover, about 233,000 workers shifted to work in agriculture and forest exploitation, 126,000 to education, 66,000 to electricity and gas supply, and 62,000 changed their occupation to construction.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.