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Turkish FM: Sisi, Erdogan Meeting Was a Turning Point for Normalization of Ties

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (AP)
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (AP)
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Turkish FM: Sisi, Erdogan Meeting Was a Turning Point for Normalization of Ties

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (AP)
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (AP)

Turkiye’s foreign minister confirmed that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meeting Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi last December in Doha had offered a main turning point in the course of normalizing relations between Ankara and Cairo.

Speaking to the Turkish press on Monday, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that his recent meeting with Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry discussed Libya and energy in the eastern Mediterranean.

Cavusoglu said Egypt was initially disturbed by Turkiye’s presence in the region but they affirmed that their presence did not pose a threat to Egypt, adding that the two countries agreed they were not rivals in Libya and that they should work together for the stability of Libya, vowing to intensify their consultations on this issue.

The Turkish foreign minister affirmed that his recent meeting with Shoukry on Saturday in Cairo was “fruitful.”

Cavusoglu said they agreed to “maximize” diplomatic relations, and that he invited Shoukry to visit Ankara.

“We exchanged views, especially on regional issues. Then we held a meeting between delegations and discussed everything. In other words, we touched on all matters from energy, shipping, transportation to our companies, and investments here,” he said, adding that topics related to energy, logistics, education, and culture were also addressed.

“The Egyptian side wants Turkish companies to increase their investments in Egypt. Our trade has approached $10 billion. Due to LNG imports, the balance is in their favor, but we are not complaining about it,” said Cavusoglu.

Turkiye wants to make a longer-term LNG agreement, he said and added, “Thanks to our LNG terminals, we are currently exporting gas to southeast European countries and Balkan countries. Therefore, Egyptian gas can be exported to third countries via Turkiye.”

Noting that the resumption of Ro-Ro expeditions, developing defense cooperation and increasing the dialogue between the militaries were discussed, Cavusoglu stated that cooperation issues between universities and student exchange were also on the agenda.

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How Did Iraq Survive ‘Existential Threat More Dangerous than ISIS’?

Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
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How Did Iraq Survive ‘Existential Threat More Dangerous than ISIS’?

Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 
Iraqi sheikhs participate in a solidarity demonstration with Iran on a road leading to the Green Zone, where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad (AP). 

Diplomatic sources in Baghdad revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraqi authorities were deeply concerned about sliding into the Israeli-Iranian war, which they considered “an existential threat to Iraq even more dangerous than that posed by ISIS when it overran a third of the country’s territory.”

The sources explained that “ISIS was a foreign body that inevitably had to be expelled by the Iraqi entity, especially given the international and regional support Baghdad enjoyed in confronting it... but the war (with Israel) threatened Iraq’s unity.”

They described this “existential threat” as follows:

-When the war broke out, Baghdad received messages from Israel, conveyed via Azerbaijan and other channels, stating that Israel would carry out “harsh and painful” strikes in response to any attacks launched against it from Iraqi territory. The messages held the Iraqi authorities responsible for any such attacks originating from their soil.

-Washington shifted from the language of prior advice to direct warnings, highlighting the grave consequences that could result from any attacks carried out by Iran-aligned factions.

-Iraqi authorities feared what they described as a “disaster scenario”: that Iraqi factions would launch attacks on Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate with a wave of assassinations similar to those it conducted against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon or Iranian generals and scientists at the start of the war.

-The sources noted that delivering painful blows to these factions would inevitably inflame the Shiite street, potentially pushing the religious authority to take a strong stance. At that point, the crisis could take on the character of a Shiite confrontation with Israel.

-This scenario raised fears that other Iraqi components would then blame the Shiite component for dragging Iraq into a war that could have been avoided. In such circumstances, the divergence in choices between the Shiite and Sunni communities could resurface, reviving the threat to Iraq’s unity.

-Another risk was the possibility that the Kurds would declare that the Iraqi government was acting as if it only represented one component, and that the country was exhausted by wars, prompting the Kurdish region to prefer distancing itself from Baghdad to avoid being drawn into unwanted conflicts.

-Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s government acted with a mix of firmness and prudence. It informed the factions it would not tolerate any attempt to drag the country into a conflict threatening its unity, while on the other hand keeping its channels open with regional and international powers, especially the US.

-Iraqi authorities also benefited from the position of Iranian authorities, who did not encourage the factions to engage in the war but instead urged them to remain calm. Some observers believed that Iran did not want to risk its relations with Iraq after losing Syria.

-Another significant factor was the factions’ realization that the war exceeded their capabilities, especially in light of what Hezbollah faced in Lebanon and the Israeli penetrations inside Iran itself, which demonstrated that Israel possessed precise intelligence on hostile organizations and was able to reach its targets thanks to its technological superiority and these infiltrations.

-The sources indicated that despite all the pressure and efforts, “rogue groups” tried to prepare three attacks, but the authorities succeeded in thwarting them before they were carried out.

The sources estimated that Iran suffered a deep wound because Israel moved the battle onto Iranian soil and encouraged the US to target its nuclear facilities. They did not rule out another round of fighting “if Iran does not make the necessary concessions on the nuclear issue.”