IMF: Lebanon is in 'Very Dangerous Situation'

Ernesto Rigo, the head of an International Monetary Fund mission to Lebanon, speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, March 23, 2023. AP
Ernesto Rigo, the head of an International Monetary Fund mission to Lebanon, speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, March 23, 2023. AP
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IMF: Lebanon is in 'Very Dangerous Situation'

Ernesto Rigo, the head of an International Monetary Fund mission to Lebanon, speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, March 23, 2023. AP
Ernesto Rigo, the head of an International Monetary Fund mission to Lebanon, speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, March 23, 2023. AP

The International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday that Lebanon was in a very dangerous situation a year after it committed to reforms it has failed to implement and said the government must stop borrowing from the central bank.

IMF mission chief Ernesto Rigo told a news conference in Beirut that the authorities should accelerate the implementation of conditions set for a $3 billion bailout.

"One would have expected more in terms of implementation and approval of legislation" related to reforms, he said, noting "very slow" progress. "Lebanon is in a very dangerous situation," he added, in unusually frank remarks.

Lebanon signed a staff-level agreement with the IMF nearly one year ago but has not met the conditions to secure a full program, which is seen as crucial for its recovery from one of the world's worst financial crises.

Without implementing rapid reforms, Lebanon "will be mired in a never-ending crisis," the IMF warned in a written statement after Rigo's remarks.

The economy has been crippled by the collapse of the Lebanese currency, which has lost some 98% of its value against the US dollar since 2019, triggering triple-digit inflation, spreading poverty and a wave of emigration.

The crisis erupted after decades of profligate spending and corruption among the ruling elites, some of whom led banks that lent heavily to the state.

The government estimates losses in the financial system total more than $70 billion, the majority of which were accrued at the central bank.

"No more borrowing from the central bank," Reuters quoted Rigo as saying. "Over the years, the government has been borrowing from the central bank. Not just in the past (but also) the last few months, which is something we have recommended should stop."

The IMF has called for financial sector losses to be distributed in a way that preserves the rights of small depositors and limits recourse to state assets, though powerful politicians and banks have pushed back, delaying the recovery.

"Suffice it to say that the loss is so large that there will unfortunately have to be a distribution between the government, the banks and depositors," Rigo added.

Still, he said that the IMF would "never walk away" from helping a member country and there was no deadline for Lebanon to implement the reforms.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.