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Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s Oil Output at Risk after Türkiye Halts Pipeline Exports

An oil field is seen in Kirkuk, Iraq October 18, 2017. (Reuters)
An oil field is seen in Kirkuk, Iraq October 18, 2017. (Reuters)
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Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s Oil Output at Risk after Türkiye Halts Pipeline Exports

An oil field is seen in Kirkuk, Iraq October 18, 2017. (Reuters)
An oil field is seen in Kirkuk, Iraq October 18, 2017. (Reuters)

Oil production in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region (KRI) is at risk after a halt in northern exports has forced firms operating there to cease output or divert crude to storage, where capacity is limited.

Iraq was forced to halt around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports, or half a percent of global oil supply, from the KRI on Saturday through an export pipeline that runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Oil firms in the region have been left in limbo as the pipeline stoppage is set to continue until Ankara, Baghdad and the KRG find a settlement to resume exports.

Türkiye stopped pumping Iraqi crude from the pipeline after Iraq won an arbitration case in which it said Türkiye had violated a joint agreement by allowing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to export oil to Ceyhan without Baghdad's consent.

The news supported crude prices, with Brent rising over $3 per barrel on Monday.

Canada-based Forza Petroleum, formerly Oryx Petroleum Corporation, said on Monday it was shutting in production from the 14,500 bpd Hawler license in the KRI as storage was nearing full capacity.

Dallas-based HKN Energy, which operates the Sarsang block, said it would shut in operations "within a week if no resolution is reached" as its storage facilities approach capacity.

The block produced 43,038 bpd in the fourth quarter of last year.

HKN wrote to US representatives last year warning that a cessation of exports through the pipeline would trigger a collapse of the KRI economy.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which operates the 55,000 bpd Shaikan field in the KRI, said in a statement on Monday that its "facilities have storage capacity that allow continued production at a curtailed rate over the coming days, after which the company will suspend production".

DNO and Genel Energy said they were storing oil in tanks, which can accommodate several days of production.

The two firms hold stakes in the Tawke and Peshkabir fields, which produced 107,000 bpd of oil last year.

Genel also holds stakes in the Taq Taq and Sarta fields, which produced a respective 4,500 bpd and 4,710 bpd last year, according to the company's annual results.

Production at the Khurmala oil field run by Kurdish group Kar was unaffected at around 135,000 bpd and heading into tank, a source familiar with the field operations told Reuters.

Shamaran Petroleum said in a statement: "The company will remain in close contact with the other oil producers in the Kurdistan Region and with relevant government officials, and will continue to monitor this situation closely."

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China Expresses 'Gratitude' after 3 Ships Transit Hormuz Strait

FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
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China Expresses 'Gratitude' after 3 Ships Transit Hormuz Strait

FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)

Beijing expressed "gratitude" on Tuesday as it said three Chinese ships had transited the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has all but closed during the war in the Middle East.

"Following coordination with relevant parties, three Chinese vessels recently transited the Strait of Hormuz; we express our gratitude to the relevant parties for the assistance provided," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told a regular press conference.

Mao did not offer ‌details about the ‌Chinese ships.

Ship-tracking data showed two Chinese container ships sailed through the Strait of ⁠Hormuz on Monday ⁠on their second attempt to leave the Gulf after turning back on Friday.

The vessels sailed in close formation out of the strait and into open waters, data on the MarineTraffic platform showed.

"Both vessels successfully crossed on a second attempt today, marking the first container vessels to leave the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict, excluding Iranian flag vessels," said Rebecca Gerdes, data analyst with Kpler, which owns MarineTraffic.

"Both vessels are steaming at an elevated speed toward the Gulf of Oman at the moment."

Officials from China's COSCO, the shipping group that operates ⁠the two vessels, did not respond to requests for comment. COSCO had said in a March 25 client advisory, that it had resumed bookings for general cargo containers for shipments from Asia to the Gulf including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.

Iran has launched attacks on Gulf shipping and threatened more, stranding hundreds of vessels and 20,000 seafarers inside the Gulf.

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UNDP: Arab Countries May Lose Up to $194 Billion from Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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UNDP: Arab Countries May Lose Up to $194 Billion from Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

The military escalation in the Middle East, now into its fifth week, may cost economies in the region from 3.7 to 6 percent of their collective Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a staggering loss of $120-194 billion, a new United Nations study found.

“Coupled with an estimated rise in unemployment of up to 4 percentage points or 3.6 million jobs lost—more than the total jobs created in the region in 2025, these reversals will push up to 4 million people into poverty,” according to an analysis by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which was released early Tuesday.

The assessment - “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Implications for the Arab States region” - exposes the concerning reality of structural vulnerabilities characteristic to the region, which enable a short lived military escalation to generate profound and widespread socio economic impacts that may persist over a long-term.

The agency said it had studied a number of different scenarios to determine how the conflict, which began on Feb. 28, might affect countries in the region. The report’s authors indicated that the damage could be profound, even if the war ends relatively soon.

“A short-lived military escalation in the Middle East could generate profound and widespread socio-economic impacts across the Arab States region,” they said.

“Since the escalation began, maritime security risks and attacks on tankers have sharply curtailed shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz,” said the study.

The Strait remains the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint, it added.

It warned that even limited military escalation or accidental incidents affecting the Strait can rapidly destabilize global energy markets and trigger sharp price movements.

The study added that simulations suggest that the military escalation could generate substantial but uneven macroeconomic impacts across the Arab States region.

Simulations indicate the Gulf Cooperation Council countries would experience macroeconomic impacts. GDP is projected to decline between 5.2 percent under the moderate disruption scenario and 8.5 percent under the most severe scenario.

The Levant region (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria) could experience significant macroeconomic losses across all scenarios. Compared to the No-War scenario GDP is projected to decline between 5.2 percent and 8.7 percent.

These translate into between approximately 2.8 and 3.3 million additional people pushed into poverty.

The Human Development Index (HDI) declines by approximately –0.2 to –0.4 percent, corresponding to a loss of roughly half a year to nearly one year of human development progress. These impacts are most pronounced in the Levant, where losses translate into setbacks of around one to one and a half years.

According to the study, the war could also have significant implications for the region’s monetary, fiscal and financial conditions.

“The region’s central banks may therefore need to raise interest rates and intervene in foreign currency markets to contain foreign exchange and inflationary pressures and to provide liquidity support to banks,” it said.

Business

Türkiye Cenbank Chief Says 'Natural' to Use Gold amid War Fallout

The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
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Türkiye Cenbank Chief Says 'Natural' to Use Gold amid War Fallout

The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)

Türkiye's central bank chief said market fallout from the Iran war hurts its fight against inflation, and in such situations it is a "natural choice" to turn to gold-based transactions to support liquidity.

Fatih Karahan, the governor, said in an interview with state-owned Anadolu Agency that the bank is determined to maintain ‌the needed tight ‌policy to continue Türkiye's disinflation ‌process, ⁠which began in ⁠2024 but slowed recently.

Annual inflation edged up to 31.5% last month and year-end expectations have risen since the war began a month ago, largely due to soaring global energy prices, Reuters reported.

In response, the ⁠central bank has halted its ‌easing cycle with ‌the main rate at 37%, lifted its overnight ‌rate by about 300 basis points to ‌near 40%, and undertaken heavy sales and swaps of forex and gold reserves to support the lira currency.

Total reserves have dropped ‌by roughly $55 billion over the last month. Over the last two ⁠weeks, ⁠the central bank has begun swapping or selling billions of dollars' worth of gold reserves.

"Using gold-backed transactions during periods when foreign exchange liquidity needs to be supported is a perfectly natural choice," Karahan was quoted as saying by Anadolu on Tuesday.

He said the central bank is pursuing a "proactive, flexible, and controlled" approach to its reserve-management and liquidity tools.