Britain’s Next Sees Lower Clothing Inflation, Shares Dip on Cautious Outlook

 Signage on the exterior of a Next clothing retail store is seen in London, Britain, March 25, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Signage on the exterior of a Next clothing retail store is seen in London, Britain, March 25, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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Britain’s Next Sees Lower Clothing Inflation, Shares Dip on Cautious Outlook

 Signage on the exterior of a Next clothing retail store is seen in London, Britain, March 25, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Signage on the exterior of a Next clothing retail store is seen in London, Britain, March 25, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville

British fashion retailer Next (NXT.L) reported a better-than-expected 5.7% rise in annual profit on Wednesday and said it would not need to increase prices by as much as previously thought.

However, it still expects higher spending on wages, energy and technology to reduce its profit this year, and the retailer's shares were down 6% in morning trading after it retained its cautious outlook.

Next, which trades from about 500 stores and online and is often considered a good barometer of how British consumers are faring, said inflationary pressures were expected to ease as freight costs drop and the cost of goods improves, Reuters reported.

The company has shown more resilience than most to the cost-of living crisis in Britain and is considered by analysts to be one of the best run retailers in the country. Its shares had been up 16% this year prior to Wednesday's update.

It now expects 7% like-for-like price inflation in the spring-summer season and 3% in autumn-winter - down from its previous forecast of 8% and 6%, respectively.

That reflected a significant drop in container freight costs and improving factory gate prices - the price at which it purchases goods - due to increased factory capacity and efforts to move production to lower priced sources of supply.

"We still anticipate we'll be moving production out of China and into other regions like Bangladesh, India, South East Asia," CEO Simon Wolfson told Reuters.

"But if I look at the things that are moving the dial, it's more within those territories, finding new sources of supply rather than moving countries."

Next's improved price outlook fits with a Bank of England forecast for inflation to fall from its 10.4% annual rate in February to below 4% by the end of 2023.

Next made a pretax profit of 870.4 million pounds ($1.07 billion) in the year to January 2023, up from 823.1 million pounds the year before and above its 860 million pound guidance.

Sales of items sold at full price rose 6.9% in 2022-23, with total sales up 8.4% to 5.15 billion pounds.

For 2023-24, Next kept its forecast for a 1.5% decline in full-price sales and profit of 795 million pounds.

It expects its sales performance in the first half of the year to be weaker than in the second half.

In the first half last year, unusually warm summer weather coincided with the release of pent-up demand for events after the pandemic.

In the first eight weeks of its new financial year, full-price sales were down 2.0%, in line with its expectations.

Wolfson said he did not think the downturn in the UK economy would be long lasting and anticipated a strong recovery in 2024.



LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Shares in LVMH (LVMH.PA) fell as much as 6.5% in early Wednesday trade and were on track for their biggest one-day drop since October 2023 after second-quarter sales growth at the French luxury goods giant missed analysts' consensus estimate.

The world's biggest luxury group said late Tuesday its quarterly sales rose 1% year on year to 20.98 billion euros ($22.76 billion), undershooting the 21.6 billion expected on average by analysts polled by LSEG.

At 1000 GMT, LVMH's shares were down 4.5%.

The earnings miss weighed on other luxury stocks, with Hermes (HRMS.PA), down around 2% and Kering (PRTP.PA), off 3%.

Kering is scheduled to report second-quarter sales after the market close and Hermes reports on Thursday, Reuters reported.

Jittery investors are looking for evidence that the industry will pick up from a recent slowdown, as inflation-hit shoppers hold off from splashing out on designer fashion.

JPMorgan analyst Chiara Battistini cut full year profit forecasts by 2-3% for the group, citing softer trends at LVMH's fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior.

"The soft print is likely to add to ongoing investors’ concerns on the sector more broadly in our view, confirming that even best-in-class players like LVMH cannot be immune from the challenging backdrop," said Battistini in a note to clients.

The weakness of the yen, which has prompted a flood of Chinese shoppers to Japan seeking bargains on luxury goods, added pressure to margins, another source of concern.

Equita cut 2024 sales estimates for LVMH by 3% - attributing 1% to currency fluctuations - and lowered its second half organic sales estimate to 7% growth from 10% growth previously.

The lack of visibility for the second half beyond the easing of comparative figures - as the Chinese post-pandemic lockdown bounce tapered off a year ago - is unlikely to improve investor sentiment to the luxury sector, Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet said in an email to clients.

"No miracle with the luxury bellwether; sector likely to remain out of favour," he wrote.

Jefferies analysts said the miss came as investors eye Chinese shoppers for their potential to "resume their pre-COVID role as the locomotive of industry growth and debate when Western consumers will have fully digested their COVID overspend".

LVMH shares have been volatile since the luxury slowdown emerged, and are down about 20% over the past year, with middle-class shoppers in China, the world's No. 2 economy, a key focus as they rein in purchases at home amid a property slump and job insecurity.

LVMH offered some reassurance, with finance chief Jean-Jacques Guiony telling analysts during a call on Tuesday that Chinese customers were "holding up quite well," while business with US and European customers was "slightly better".