Egypt’s Central Bank Faces Multiple Crises, Limited Options

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in Cairo, Egypt (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in Cairo, Egypt (Reuters)
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Egypt’s Central Bank Faces Multiple Crises, Limited Options

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in Cairo, Egypt (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in Cairo, Egypt (Reuters)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will hold a periodic meeting on Thursday when options to contain successive shocks to the Egyptian economy remain limited before growing local and global crises.

CBE will likely raise interest rates at today’s meeting to curb inflation, which has risen to unprecedented levels in Egypt.

Raising interest, however, will reduce chances of increasing growth rates in a country where the population exceeds 100 million people.

Moreover, it will increase the burden of debt service on the government.

CBE is forecast to hike its overnight interest rates by 200 basis points as it struggles to bring soaring inflation under control, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The median forecast in a poll of 15 analysts is for the bank to increase its deposit rate to 18.25% and its lending rate to 19.25% at its regular monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. Seven of the analysts expected an increase of 300 bps.

At its last meeting on Feb. 2, the central bank left rates steady despite analyst expectations of a 150 bps increase, saying steep rate hikes put in place over the previous year should help to tame inflation, which in December had accelerated to a five-year high of 21.3%.

The central bank had raised rates by a total of 800 bps since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

With 12-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) rates now over 40 per dollar, another large-scale pound devaluation was just a matter of time, said Gergely Urmossy at Societe Generale.

“No time like the present to align foreign exchange rates with fundamentals,” Urmossy said, adding that the March 30 policy announcement was "one of the most anticipated events in the African Frontier space."

The weakening currency and soaring inflation, which in February hit a five-and-a-half-year high of 31.9%, also put more pressure on the central bank to raise rates, even if it adds to the costs of servicing climbing government debt.



Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
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Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)

Bahrain's economy expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, citing preliminary data.

Growth was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in non-oil activities, while oil activities declined by 3.5% over the same period, data from the Gulf nation's Information and eGovernment Authority showed.

For 2024, Bahrain's real total gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, according to the statement.

According to projections from the ministry, Bahrain's real GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, due to a 3.4% expansion in non-oil activities, coinciding with the operation of the Bapco Modernization Program.

The Bapco Modernization Program, one of Bahrain's largest energy investments, is expected to significantly raise refinery output, bolstering fiscal revenues amid efforts to diversify the economy.

Growth is forecast to reach 3.3% in 2026, supported by a 3.9% increase in non-oil activities.

"However, the forecasts will be closely monitored and updated to account for the ongoing global uncertainty and escalating turmoil that may affect the economic projections," the ministry said.

Last month, global ratings agency S&P Global downgraded Bahrain's outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing ongoing market volatility and weaker financing conditions that could increase the government's interest burden.

Escalating trade tensions have added to global economic uncertainty, clouding macroeconomic forecasts and weighing on investor and policymaker confidence around the world.