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Erdogan Warns of Repeated Talks about Possible Destructive Quake in Istanbul

Buildings destroyed by the earthquake in the Turkish city of Hatay. (AFP)
Buildings destroyed by the earthquake in the Turkish city of Hatay. (AFP)
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Erdogan Warns of Repeated Talks about Possible Destructive Quake in Istanbul

Buildings destroyed by the earthquake in the Turkish city of Hatay. (AFP)
Buildings destroyed by the earthquake in the Turkish city of Hatay. (AFP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that repeated talks of a potential destructive earthquake in Istanbul are spreading fear among the city’s residents.

Erdogan spoke during his interview with several Turkish TV channels Wednesday evening about the challenges that faced the government in convincing Istanbul residents living in houses built before the Marmara destructive earthquake in 1999 to demolish and reconstruct their houses.

Despite the challenges, the authority succeeded in changing the face of urbanism in many regions, and people started to apply for the demolition and reconstruction of their houses in other areas, added Erdogan.

Persisting talks about an expected destructive quake in Istanbul spread fear among citizens, with some starting to move from the city to other areas, said the President.

He added that up to 27,949 houses are under construction in several states - such as Adiyaman, Kahraman, Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, Hatay, and Malatya - damaged by the Feb. 6 quakes. Construction of some rural houses is almost completed, and they would be handed out to their owners by summer.

Erdogan mentioned that the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change is carrying out the debris removal works, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority is installing tents and establishing field hospitals.

“The scope of the destruction is unprecedented,” UNDP Türkiye Resident Representative Louisa Vinton told Anadolu Agency.

“This is why we expect equally unprecedented commitments from global donors.”

“Reconstruction is not just about bricks and mortar but also lives and livelihoods. People need secure employment to ensure a steady income, they need public services such as health care and education, and they need to be able to shop, relax and socialize with other people,” said Vinton.

“In short, they need to get back to normal life as soon as possible.”

The UNDP has proposed 31 projects that will contribute to the sustainable recovery of Türkiye's quake-hit southern region, she added.

The UNDP's 12 projects include ensuring sustainable management of debris, restoring waste management and water treatment plants, restoring cultural heritage, rehabilitation and restoration of natural assets and livelihoods, and building back better with near-zero emission structures.

The rest of the projects focus on supporting livelihoods and socio-economic recovery, leaving no one behind through targeted support to vulnerable groups, rehabilitating infrastructure, reintegrating the displaced workers into business, accelerating activity in the damaged areas, and boosting the economy.

The proposed projects also focus on strengthening legal protection and social support for persons with disabilities, increasing the psychological and social resilience of quake survivors and affected communities, and improving community resilience.

The organization is seeking $550 million in funding to implement the projects.

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Trump 'Golden Dome' Plan Tricky and Expensive, Experts Say

file photo: US President Donald Trump announced new details and initial funding for the missile shield system last week. Jim WATSON / AFP
file photo: US President Donald Trump announced new details and initial funding for the missile shield system last week. Jim WATSON / AFP
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Trump 'Golden Dome' Plan Tricky and Expensive, Experts Say

file photo: US President Donald Trump announced new details and initial funding for the missile shield system last week. Jim WATSON / AFP
file photo: US President Donald Trump announced new details and initial funding for the missile shield system last week. Jim WATSON / AFP

President Donald Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" defense system is a plan that will face mammoth technical and financial hurdles, and could increase global insecurity, experts say.

Trump announced plans for the space-based system last month, saying it would eventually cost around $175 billion and would be operational by the end of his term in 2029.

The planned defense shield's name is a nod to Israel's Iron Dome that has intercepted thousands of short-range rockets since 2011.

But the US defense system would intercept much bigger intercontinental threats.

The plan comes after a 2022 Department of defense study pointed to advances by China and Russia.

Beijing is closing the gap with Washington when it comes to ballistic and hypersonic missile technology, while Moscow is modernizing its intercontinental-range missile systems and developing advanced precision strike missiles, it said.

Trump has claimed the "Golden Dome" will be "capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world".

But analysts are skeptical.

"I'm not holding my breath," said Thomas Withington, an associate fellow at the RUSI defense think tank.

"The challenges are so significant at this stage that they may simply be unrealistic to surround in the timeframes that the Trump administration envisages."

'Poster child for waste'

Thomas Roberts, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, said the "Golden Dome" plan was based on being able to detect when a long-range missile was fired.

A missile's so-called "boost phase" -- which produces a heat blast that lasts one to two minutes and can be observed from space -- is the best time to deploy defenses, he said.

"If you had an enormous constellation of interceptors in orbit at all times, they could be readily de-orbited -- or systematically removed from orbit -- to strike an intercontinental ballistic missile," he said.

But Todd Harrison, from the American Enterprise Institute, said this would require a massive number of satellites.

"It takes about 950 interceptors spread out in orbit around the Earth to ensure that at least one is always in range to intercept a missile during its boost phase," he said.

But that means that if an adversary launches a salvo of ten missiles, some 9,500 interceptors would be needed to ensure at least ten are within range.

"Given that China has about 350 intercontinental ballistic missiles and Russia has 306 -- not including their sub-launched ballistic missiles -- scaling a space-based interceptor system to meet the threat quickly becomes impractical."

The non-partisan US Congressional Budget Office estimates that, just to stop "one or two intercontinental ballistic missiles", the United States would need a constellation of satellites costing between $161 billion to $542 billion.

The US military could spend billions of dollars on research only for the next administration to nix the project, Harrison warned.

"Golden Dome could become the poster child for waste and inefficiency in defense," he said.

The plan also calls for developing satellites able to fire lasers at missiles to avoid too much debris on impact.

But a European defense contractor said on condition of anonymity that such lasers are "still beyond what even the Americans are capable of doing".

"It's just an excellent way to give the US (defense) industry substantial funding so they can increase their technological lead without necessarily aiming for actual operational deployment," the contractor said.

'Global arms race'?

Trump's plan is reminiscent of President Ronald Reagan ambition for a Strategic Defense Initiative in the 1980s, which also sought to place interceptor satellites in space.

China and Russia, which both have nuclear weapons, have slammed the latest plan as "deeply destabilizing".

Nuclear-armed North Korea has called the plan a "very dangerous" threat.

Julia Cournoyer, research associate at Chatham House, said the plan was risky as adversaries would likely see it "as an attempt to undermine the logic of nuclear deterrence".

"If Washington is perceived to be developing a shield that could one day neutralize a retaliatory nuclear strike, it risks triggering a dangerous global arms race," which would exacerbate rather than reduce risk.

Withington said Trump might be hoping to use the plan as leverage for talks with China and Russia.

"It may be that the Trump administration is hoping that this would bring both countries to some kind of negotiating table to talk about a reduction of nuclear warhead sizes or to revitalize the arms control agenda," he said.