Embattled Macron Heads to China, Leaving Burning Paris Behind

French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony in tribute to French GIGN gendarme Marechal des Logis-Chef Arnaud Blanc, at the French National Gendarmerie Intervention Group (GIGN) base of Versailles-Satory in Versailles, west of Paris, France, 31 March 2023. (EPA)
French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony in tribute to French GIGN gendarme Marechal des Logis-Chef Arnaud Blanc, at the French National Gendarmerie Intervention Group (GIGN) base of Versailles-Satory in Versailles, west of Paris, France, 31 March 2023. (EPA)
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Embattled Macron Heads to China, Leaving Burning Paris Behind

French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony in tribute to French GIGN gendarme Marechal des Logis-Chef Arnaud Blanc, at the French National Gendarmerie Intervention Group (GIGN) base of Versailles-Satory in Versailles, west of Paris, France, 31 March 2023. (EPA)
French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony in tribute to French GIGN gendarme Marechal des Logis-Chef Arnaud Blanc, at the French National Gendarmerie Intervention Group (GIGN) base of Versailles-Satory in Versailles, west of Paris, France, 31 March 2023. (EPA)

French President Emmanuel Macron will head to China next week for a rare visit to the rising superpower, in an awkward balancing act between his global statesman ambitions and his struggle to contain embarrassing pension protests at home.

The French leader, whose decision to ram much-disputed pension legislation through parliament earlier this month sparked clashes and violence in French cities, is trying to keep his busy diplomatic schedule on track.

But the chaotic scenes of burning piles of rubbish in Paris, which were broadcast around the world, have already forced Macron to cancel a state visit by Britain's King Charles, an embarrassment which did not go unnoticed in diplomatic circles.

"It's a very prestigious thing to host the first visit abroad of the King of England, it doesn't happen every day. If you can't pull it off, it's a problem," the ambassador of a European country told Reuters.

"It's clear it is weakening him," another EU diplomat said. "It's hard to measure the impact, but there is one."

The protests, which will see unions stage an 11th nationwide strike during Macron's time in Beijing, come as the French president is trying to regain the initiative on the war in Ukraine and play a leadership role in Europe.

That hasn't escaped Chinese observers.

"The protests bring a large amount of risk and France needs a diplomatic highlight, especially since it wants to play the role of Europe's leader," said Wang Yiwei, director of the Centre for European Studies at Renmin University in China.

Macron will also need to keep in mind China's tactic of playing divide and rule, said a non-Western diplomat who suggested China may try to use the trip to place a wedge in the Western camp and lure France away from the United States.

Red line on Russia

For his part, Macron wants to send a clear warning to his counterpart Xi Jinping, who was hosted at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month, that Europe will not accept China providing arms to Russia, now a year into its invasion of Ukraine.

"Our message will be clear: There may be a temptation to get closer to Russia, but do not cross that line," a senior French diplomat said.

Analysts say Putin's decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus can provide an opportunity for France to push China to distance itself from Russia on this point, Beijing having long denounced nuclear proliferation.

"France is a nuclear power, it's got this card to play," Antoine Bondaz of the France-based FRS think-tank.

However, a Brussels-based diplomat said many in Europe were doubtful he could be successful in his previously stated aim of nudging China to put pressure on Moscow to end the war. "Many in Brussels roll their eyes when you bring that up," he said.

French diplomats are playing down the impact the protests at home could have on Macron's credibility abroad. They point out Xi faced his own protests at the end of last year, in a rare show of civil disobedience over COVID-19 restrictions.

"The Chinese will play a fine balancing act. They need a good relationship with Europe so will not want to play on Macron's internal problems," another French diplomat said.

Amid worsening relations between Washington and Beijing, which reached fever pitch last month after the US shot down a Chinese balloon flying over its territory, Europe is trying to carve its own path.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who will be accompanying Macron in Beijing, said the bloc was looking to "de-risk" diplomatically and economically at a time China was exerting greater control over companies, without "decoupling".

Analysts say China's deteriorating relationship with the US gives Europe a bit more leverage, with the EU's vast single market becoming more crucial for China.

That can provide an opportunity for Macron, who has pushed Europe to bolster its "strategic autonomy," but is also hoping France and the rest of the EU can benefit from a reopening Chinese economy after years of pandemic.

"Macron can deliver a message that Europe wants to engage with China, but that it's going to be difficult if China continues down the path that it's currently on with Russia," Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rhodium Group, said.



Israel’s Messages Behind Strikes on Beirut’s Southern Suburb

Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
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Israel’s Messages Behind Strikes on Beirut’s Southern Suburb

Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)

Israel’s latest airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh, have moved beyond mere retaliation for rocket fire, signaling a shift in the rules of engagement. By targeting the area twice in less than a week, Tel Aviv has effectively abandoned the informal understanding that had kept the suburb off-limits since the ceasefire took effect in November.

The escalation raises questions about how Lebanon’s government and Hezbollah will respond and whether this marks the beginning of a more intense phase of conflict.

Pressure to normalize ties

Observers close to Hezbollah believe Israel’s strikes are aimed to increase pressure on Lebanon to engage in normalization talks.

Brig. Gen. Mounir Shehadeh, former Lebanese government coordinator with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), suggested that the rockets fired into Israel last Friday—which prompted the initial Israeli response—ultimately served Israeli interests.

“It was evident that these were crude, suspicious rockets, giving Israel the pretext it needed to strike deep into Lebanese territory, specifically Dahiyeh,” Shehadeh told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He pointed to Tuesday’s assassination of a Hezbollah member in the Dahiyeh strike, describing it as a significant escalation. “Unlike last week, there was no pretext for this attack,” he said. “This confirms that Israel’s objective is to pressure Lebanon into normalization.”

Shehadeh argued that the US and Israel are working to push Lebanon into political negotiations involving diplomats and politicians rather than military representatives.

“There are also growing efforts to force Hezbollah into making internal concessions, particularly to disarm in areas north of the Litani River,” he added.

He stressed that Israel is sending a clear message: no location in Lebanon is off-limits, and it will continue to act whenever and wherever it sees fit.

A different perspective

Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader offered a different interpretation of the escalation. He believes Israel does not need excuses to carry out its attacks, but argues that Lebanon should avoid giving it any justification.

“We have failed to implement international resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701, and we continue to insist that Hezbollah’s disarmament requires national dialogue,” Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He questioned the relevance of such discussions, given that Lebanon’s previous government had already signed an agreement calling for the disarmament of armed groups and the dismantling of their military infrastructure, starting south of the Litani River.

“As long as the situation remains unchanged, we should expect Israeli violations and attacks to intensify,” he warned. He also cited explicit US warnings that Lebanon could face cuts in military aid and even sanctions if it fails to implement the agreement.

“We are at a crossroads,” Nader said. “Either Hezbollah acknowledges the shifting regional and international dynamics, helps the state assert full sovereignty over Lebanese territory, and surrenders its weapons—or Israel will continue the aggressive approach we are seeing today.”