Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, offset concerns of tight supply.

Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.63%, to $86.78 a barrel by 1352 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 46 cents, or 0.55%, to $82.80.

Both Brent and WTI had risen 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

However, minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting indicated that banking sector stress could tip the economy into recession, which would weaken US oil demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged downside risks to summer oil demand in a monthly report on Thursday. But OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged.

The market is a keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth, which Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM described as fragile. "Inflationary pressure could easily become elevated again," Varga said.

The market is still reeling from the shock decision by OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, to cut output further.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency expects the move to tighten supply in the second half of the year and push oil prices higher, Reuters reported.

However, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday highlighted the risk this poses to global economic expansion.

For every 10% rise in the price of oil, IMF models show a 0.1 percentage point reduction in growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in inflation, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in US crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a release of oil from the US emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month.

The Biden administration plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday.



OPEC+ Credits Voluntary Oil Cuts for Market Stability

The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Credits Voluntary Oil Cuts for Market Stability

The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) commended the additional voluntary oil production cuts implemented by eight member states, saying the move played a key role in supporting market stability.

During its 59th meeting, held virtually on Saturday, the alliance opted to keep its current oil output policy unchanged, while underscoring the importance of full compliance with production quotas.

A statement published on the official website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed that OPEC+ members showed “a high level of commitment” to crude production targets during January and February 2025.

The committee reviewed production figures for those months and noted general compliance among both OPEC and non-OPEC signatories to the Declaration of Cooperation. However, it also singled out countries that failed to meet their quotas and stressed the need for full compliance and compensation for any overproduction.

Member states were urged to submit updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by April 15.

The committee reiterated its commitment to monitoring adherence to the production adjustments agreed at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in December 2024, as well as the additional voluntary cuts announced during the 52nd JMMC session in February 2024.

The JMMC retains the authority to call additional meetings or request a full ministerial session if needed.

The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for May 28. The body, which includes oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other top producers, typically meets every two months and may recommend policy changes.

Separately, eight OPEC+ countries announced on Thursday that they would accelerate the easing of production cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May—more than triple the previously planned 135,000 barrels.