Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
TT

Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, offset concerns of tight supply.

Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.63%, to $86.78 a barrel by 1352 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 46 cents, or 0.55%, to $82.80.

Both Brent and WTI had risen 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

However, minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting indicated that banking sector stress could tip the economy into recession, which would weaken US oil demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged downside risks to summer oil demand in a monthly report on Thursday. But OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged.

The market is a keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth, which Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM described as fragile. "Inflationary pressure could easily become elevated again," Varga said.

The market is still reeling from the shock decision by OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, to cut output further.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency expects the move to tighten supply in the second half of the year and push oil prices higher, Reuters reported.

However, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday highlighted the risk this poses to global economic expansion.

For every 10% rise in the price of oil, IMF models show a 0.1 percentage point reduction in growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in inflation, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in US crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a release of oil from the US emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month.

The Biden administration plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday.



IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
TT

IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the third review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout on Saturday but warned that the economy remains vulnerable.
In a statement, the global lender said it would release about $333 million, bringing total funding to around $1.3 billion, to the crisis-hit South Asian nation. It said signs of an economic recovery were emerging, Reuters reported.
In a note of caution, it said "the critical next steps are to complete the commercial debt restructuring, finalize bilateral agreements with official creditors along the lines of the accord with the Official Creditor Committee and implement the terms of the other agreements. This will help restore Sri Lanka's debt sustainability."
Cash-strapped Sri Lanka plunged into its worst financial crisis in more than seven decades in 2022 with a severe dollar shortage sending inflation soaring to 70%, its currency to record lows and its economy contracting by 7.3% during the worst of the fallout and by 2.3% last year.
"Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability are key to securing Sri Lanka's prosperity and require persevering with responsible fiscal policy," the IMF said.
The IMF bailout secured in March last year helped stabilize economic conditions. The rupee has risen 11.3% in recent months and inflation disappeared, with prices falling 0.8% last month.
The island nation's economy is expected to grow 4.4% this year, the first increase in three years, according to the World Bank.
However, Sri Lanka still needs to complete a $12.5 billion debt restructuring with bondholders, which President Anura Kumara Dissanayake aims to finalize in December.
Sri Lanka will enter into individual agreements with bilateral creditors including Japan, China and India needed to complete a $10 billion debt restructuring, Dissanayake said.
He won the presidency in September, and his leftist coalition won a record 159 seats in the 225-member parliament in a general election last week.