How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/4276311/how-will-conflict-sudan-impact-egypts-stance-over-gerd
How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
Cairo - Osama al-Saeed
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How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
The fighting between the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raised concerns that it may affect the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file as Ethiopia prepares for its fourth filling of the dam on the Nile River.
Observers and experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the fighting will have a "direct impact" on a number of regional files, including the GERD crisis.
The fighting will "weaken Sudan's reservations" on the filling of the fourth reservoir that is set to begin in summer.
The weakened Sudanese position will only create a greater burden on Egypt and its international efforts to tackle the crisis, added the observers.
A spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry declared last week that his country was determined to complete the construction of GERD.
Addis Ababa does not need anyone's permission to kick off the fourth filling of the dam, he added, stressing that the move will not harm Egypt and Sudan.
Ethiopia had completed the second filling in July 2021 and the third in August 2022. Just days ago, it announced that it had completed 90 percent of the dam.
The developments have deepened the dispute between Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan that oppose the filling the dam and who have accused Addis Ababa of acting unilaterally.
Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Dr. Nasreddine Allam said the fighting in Sudan was unfortunate.
Sudan's stability is in Egypt and the region's strategic interest, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Any unrest in Sudan will have deep repercussions on vital strategic files, including water security, he remarked.
He added that the united Sudanese and Egyptian positions were a "real guarantee" that ensures the historic and legal rights of the Nile basin countries.
Cairo and Khartoum fear that the GERD will impact their share of the Nile waters. They have been demanding that Ethiopia join them in signing a binding legal agreement that manages the filling and operation of the dam.
Negotiations over the issue have stalled since January 2021.
Deputy Director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Ayman Abdulwahhab told Asharq Al-Awsat that the unrest in Sudan will directly impact several regional files, including the GERD dispute.
As Ethiopia nears the fourth filling, Sudan will unlikely make any protests or express any reservations amid its internal turmoil, he noted, throwing an added burden on Egypt to handle this vital file.
He urged regional powers, starting with Egypt, to act to put a stop to the internal fighting in Sudan to "avoid a repeat of painful experiences in history", such as those seen in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, where internal conflicts flared out to have regional consequences.
Sudan War Enters Third Year as Civilians Remain Under Firehttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5132572-sudan-war-enters-third-year-civilians-remain-under-fire
Sudan War Enters Third Year as Civilians Remain Under Fire
Soldiers arrive in an area recaptured by the Sudanese army south of Khartoum, March 27. (AP)
Sudan’s civil war entered its third year on Monday, with the conflict growing increasingly brutal by the hour. Images of atrocities, summary executions, and ethnically targeted violence flood social media, underscoring a war that has turned into a relentless assault on civilians.
What began as a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has morphed into a nationwide catastrophe engulfing every region — north to south, east to west. Field killings are intensifying, and civilians are frequently shot based on their identity, ethnicity, or origin. For many Sudanese, stepping outside or speaking up can be a death sentence.
The violence has not been confined to military targets. According to the United Nations, the war has unfolded in cities, not battlefields, with both sides deeply entrenched in urban zones, directing shelling and airstrikes toward civilian neighborhoods. It’s a war against the people, UN agencies say.
A nation in ruins
The toll is staggering. UN and media reports estimate the war has caused more than $200 billion in economic losses and damaged nearly 60% of Sudan’s infrastructure. More than 60,000 people have been killed, and hundreds of thousands wounded or permanently disabled.
Smoke is seen rising in Khartoum, Sudan, April 15, 2023. (AP)
One-third of the country’s population — roughly 14 million people — has been displaced internally or fled to neighboring countries. The EU has described Sudan’s humanitarian crisis as the worst of the 21st century.
With no political resolution in sight despite recent advances by the army, the suffering continues to deepen. Nearly half of Sudan’s 42 million people now live below the poverty line, and around 20 million face acute hunger, according to UN figures.
Hospitals, schools, bridges, and essential infrastructure have been decimated, leaving a broken nation struggling to survive amid a conflict that shows no sign of ending.
In a grim reflection of the deepening conflict, two nonagenarian men were executed in cold blood in the town of Tayba Al-Hasanab, south of Khartoum, simply for revealing their ethnic identity.
Local sources said Osman Mohamed and his companion, Hasbullah Abu Taqiyya, both originally from western Sudan, were targeted by armed extremists accusing them of “collaborating with the other side.”
The two men were reportedly slaughtered near their homes by militants who accused them of ethnic affiliation with rival factions in the war.
The town lies close to the Tayba military camp, one of the most strategic RSF bases near Jebel Aulia, established before the 2018 fall of Sudan’s Islamist regime. Now, the very identity of residents can serve as a death sentence in a capital divided and terrorized by ethnic violence.
As Sudan’s war enters its third year, fighters on both sides have increasingly turned their weapons on civilians they perceive as “sympathetic” to the enemy. Extremists often refer to those who have not fled their homes or who belong to certain ethnic groups as “social incubators” for the opposing side.
In some cases, all it takes is a question — “What is your tribe?” — or a glance at someone’s facial features for them to be executed without trial.
Instead of offering safety, militants have overrun Khartoum, unleashing waves of retaliatory violence on already traumatized communities. Bullets aimed at heads and hearts leave no room for mercy — just swift executions under the pretext of “collaboration”.
Supporters of the Sudanese armed popular resistance, which backs the army, ride on trucks in Gedaref in eastern Sudan on March 3, 2024. (AFP)
Industrial sector near collapse
Sudan has lost a quarter of its capital stock and seen the near-total collapse of its industrial sector as war grinds into a third year, a leading economist told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Abdel Azim Al-Amawi, an economic adviser and head of market research at Gulf-based “Aswaq Al-Mal", said the war has caused devastating damage across political, social, and economic fronts. Key infrastructure — including roads, bridges, airports, factories, and development projects — has been severely damaged or destroyed.
“The continued conflict has led to the loss of about 25% of Sudan’s capital reserves,” Al-Amawi said, adding that macroeconomic indicators have sharply deteriorated. Sudan’s economy contracted by 37.5% in the first year of war, the fiscal deficit surged to 9.1% of GDP, and annual inflation soared to 245%, according to his estimates.
Al-Amawi noted that Sudan’s economy is largely dependent on the services sector, which makes up 46.3% of GDP, followed by agriculture at 32.7% and industry at 21%. “The industrial sector is heavily concentrated in Khartoum, accounting for 85% of its activity,” he said.
“With the capital’s factories either damaged or destroyed, the industrial base has effectively collapsed.”
The destruction underscores the broader economic freefall facing Sudan, where businesses are shuttered, investment has evaporated, and millions are displaced with little hope of recovery in sight.
Sudan’s already fragile energy and agriculture sectors have been pushed to the brink by war, with the country now relying entirely on fuel imports and facing a steep drop in food production.
Al-Amawi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sudan previously met 30% of its fuel needs through domestic production, while importing the remaining 70%.
But since the outbreak of war, repeated airstrikes have destroyed the Al-Jaili refinery north of Khartoum — the country’s largest, which once produced 3,800 tons of diesel, 2,700 tons of petrol, and 800 tons of cooking gas per day.
“With the refinery offline, Sudan now imports 100% of its petroleum needs, putting immense pressure on already strained foreign currency reserves,” Al-Amawi explained.
The war has also taken a heavy toll on agriculture, with grain production falling by 46% compared to pre-war levels and 41% below the five-year average. The 2023/2024 harvest saw sorghum output drop by 42% and millet by 64%, worsening an already dire food security crisis.
According to Al-Amawi, 14 million people have been displaced by the conflict, and around 1.7 million have fled the country — making Sudan home to the world’s largest displacement crisis.
Sudanese Children suffering from malnutrition are treated at an MSF clinic in Metche Camp, Chad, near the Sudanese border, April 6, 2024. (AP)
Currency in freefall, revenues dry up
The Sudanese pound has collapsed under the weight of war. Al-Amawi said the currency lost 74% of its value in the first year of the conflict and continued its slide in 2024, reaching an 81% devaluation. As of 2025, the US dollar is trading at 2,107 Sudanese pounds on the parallel market.
“The war has crippled the economy, wiping out 85% of government revenues,” Al-Amawi said. “Sudan has shifted into a full-scale war economy, with an unregulated shadow economy expanding across much of the country.”
With infrastructure in ruins, state revenues gutted, and basic services collapsing, Sudan’s economic future — like its political one — remains dangerously uncertain.
Agricultural backbone crumbling
Sudan’s once-critical agricultural sector — the backbone of its economy and primary source of employment — has suffered a 65% collapse since war broke out, with supply chains severed, farmers displaced, and two consecutive planting seasons lost, a leading economist has said.
Omer Sid Ahmed, writing in a commentary on the Sudanese news site “Al-Rakoba,” said the sector, which employs around 80% of the workforce and contributes 32.7% to GDP, is facing near-total disruption.
Fuel, seed, and fertilizer shortages have deepened the crisis, and the upcoming agricultural season is already under threat due to continued insecurity and logistical paralysis.
“Farmers have been displaced from their land, supply routes are no longer operational, and inputs are unavailable,” Sid Ahmed wrote. “The sector has been devastated.”
While he estimated agricultural and infrastructure losses could reach $100 billion by the end of 2024, media reports suggest overall war-related losses now exceed $200 billion.
“With war still raging and infrastructure continuing to be destroyed, calculating the true cost is nearly impossible,” Sid Ahmed said. “The damage is not static — it is escalating day by day.”
Sudan’s agricultural collapse has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian crisis, with food insecurity surging and millions relying on aid, much of which is unable to reach conflict-hit regions.
Health system in collapse as hospitals targeted
Sudan’s health system is buckling under the weight of war, with more than two-thirds of hospitals and health centers out of service and medical infrastructure repeatedly targeted by shelling and occupation, according to the country’s acting health minister.
Dr. Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim told Asharq Al-Awsat that 70% of public and private medical facilities in Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan, Gezira, Sennar and parts of the Nile states are no longer operational. The collapse has created what he described as an “unprecedented health crisis.”
The minister accused the RSF of launching repeated attacks on hospitals. In El Fasher, the main city in North Darfur, hospitals have reportedly been struck more than 15 times.
Ibrahim also said the country’s main public health laboratory in Khartoum was bombed and later converted into a military base in the early days of the conflict. Specialized medical centers have also been destroyed or looted.
He estimated damages to the health sector at more than $11 billion, as doctors flee, medical supplies run dry, and critical services grind to a halt.
Aid agencies have warned that millions are now without access to basic healthcare, while disease outbreaks are spreading rapidly in displacement camps amid poor sanitation and shortages of medicine.
More than 60 doctors and medical staff have been killed since Sudan's civil war erupted, including seven dialysis specialists who were treating patients when they came under attack, said Ibrahim.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF was responsible for the deaths, accusing it of targeting healthcare workers in areas under its control. He said the war has triggered a mass exodus of doctors abroad, leaving hospitals critically understaffed.
Students are seen in Port Sudan on December 28. (AFP)
“The shortage of medical personnel is severe,” he warned, noting that many have sought refuge outside the country amid growing insecurity.
Despite the grim toll, Ibrahim said Sudanese doctors had received recognition from the Arab Health Ministers Council, which awarded the “Arab Doctor” prize to a Sudanese physician in honor of the profession’s sacrifices during the war.
The minister also warned that widespread destruction of health facilities and environmental degradation have contributed to the rapid spread of disease. Outbreaks of malaria, dengue fever, and cholera have taken hold in displacement camps and conflict-affected areas, killing tens of thousands, he stressed.
Health experts say Sudan is now facing one of the worst public health crises in its history, with millions lacking access to clean water, vaccines, or emergency care.
Schools turned into barracks as war devastates education
The war has devastated the country’s education system, forcing millions of children out of school, with thousands of facilities either destroyed, occupied by fighters, or repurposed as shelters — and in some cases, even as makeshift cemeteries.
“This war is a catastrophe that has struck at the very foundation of education in Sudan,” said Sami Al-Baqir, spokesperson for the Teachers’ Committee, an independent union, in comments to Asharq Al-Awsat.
He said there are no comprehensive figures on the total damage, but estimates indicate that up to 20,000 schools have been either partially or completely affected by the conflict. Before the war, Sudan had around 12 million school-aged children. Now, between 6 and 7 million have been out of school for the entire duration of the two-year conflict. Fewer than 4 million have managed to continue their studies, he added.
“Some schools have been turned into military barracks, others bombed, and many transformed into shelters for displaced families. Tragically, some have even been used as mass graves,” Al-Baqir said. “This is destruction beyond Sudan’s capacity to recover from in the near future.”
He also warned of a looming educational and social divide, as schools remain operational only in areas controlled by the army. “I fear the fragmentation of the Sudanese national identity,” he said, referring to the 2024 national exams, which were held only in government-controlled zones.
According to Al-Baqir, only 200,000 out of 570,000 students who were expected to sit for the Sudanese certificate exam were able to do so. “The future of those left behind is already slipping away,” he said.
