How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
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How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)

The fighting between the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raised concerns that it may affect the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file as Ethiopia prepares for its fourth filling of the dam on the Nile River.

Observers and experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the fighting will have a "direct impact" on a number of regional files, including the GERD crisis.

The fighting will "weaken Sudan's reservations" on the filling of the fourth reservoir that is set to begin in summer.

The weakened Sudanese position will only create a greater burden on Egypt and its international efforts to tackle the crisis, added the observers.

A spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry declared last week that his country was determined to complete the construction of GERD.

Addis Ababa does not need anyone's permission to kick off the fourth filling of the dam, he added, stressing that the move will not harm Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia had completed the second filling in July 2021 and the third in August 2022. Just days ago, it announced that it had completed 90 percent of the dam.

The developments have deepened the dispute between Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan that oppose the filling the dam and who have accused Addis Ababa of acting unilaterally.

Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Dr. Nasreddine Allam said the fighting in Sudan was unfortunate.

Sudan's stability is in Egypt and the region's strategic interest, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Any unrest in Sudan will have deep repercussions on vital strategic files, including water security, he remarked.

He added that the united Sudanese and Egyptian positions were a "real guarantee" that ensures the historic and legal rights of the Nile basin countries.

Cairo and Khartoum fear that the GERD will impact their share of the Nile waters. They have been demanding that Ethiopia join them in signing a binding legal agreement that manages the filling and operation of the dam.

Negotiations over the issue have stalled since January 2021.

Deputy Director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Ayman Abdulwahhab told Asharq Al-Awsat that the unrest in Sudan will directly impact several regional files, including the GERD dispute.

As Ethiopia nears the fourth filling, Sudan will unlikely make any protests or express any reservations amid its internal turmoil, he noted, throwing an added burden on Egypt to handle this vital file.

He urged regional powers, starting with Egypt, to act to put a stop to the internal fighting in Sudan to "avoid a repeat of painful experiences in history", such as those seen in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, where internal conflicts flared out to have regional consequences.



What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
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What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)

Opposition party Yesh Atid has submitted a vote to dissolve the Israeli parliament, known as the Knesset, for June 11, amid rising tensions in the ruling right-wing coalition.

Here are some key facts about the Knesset, the procedure for a dissolution vote, which would lead to an election, and possible scenarios.

KNESSET COMPOSITION

Total seats: 120

Simple majority needed to pass the vote: 61

Current government majority: 8 seats

LEGISLATIVE PROCEDURE

The Yesh Atid motion faces four votes with an absolute majority of the Knesset required in the final stretch to become law, thereby bringing a premature end to the legislature and triggering an election, which must be held within five months of the motion passing.

In practice, if the initial vote passes, the subsequent stages could occur all the same day or take months.

OPPOSITION STRATEGY

A bill to dissolve parliament will only be brought to a vote if Yesh Atid is confident of securing a majority. If not, it can withdraw the motion anytime before June 11, preventing a vote.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties could decide to leave the government to protest at its failure to put forward a law granting exemption from military service to ultra-Orthodox men. At the same time, they might refuse to vote for dissolution of parliament, allowing a minority government to continue.

COALITION NUMBERS

The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a majority of around 68 seats in parliament, though its size has fluctuated due to internal political shifts.

The two coalition ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, hold 18 seats collectively. If they united with the opposition, they would have enough votes to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections a year ahead of schedule.