India Will Pass China to Be Most Populous Nation by Mid-2023

FILE - Indians wearing face masks as a precaution against the COVID-19, crowd a market, in Mumbai, India, on Jan. 7, 2022. The United Nations estimated Monday, july 11, 2022 that the world’s population will reach 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation next year. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade, File)
FILE - Indians wearing face masks as a precaution against the COVID-19, crowd a market, in Mumbai, India, on Jan. 7, 2022. The United Nations estimated Monday, july 11, 2022 that the world’s population will reach 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation next year. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade, File)
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India Will Pass China to Be Most Populous Nation by Mid-2023

FILE - Indians wearing face masks as a precaution against the COVID-19, crowd a market, in Mumbai, India, on Jan. 7, 2022. The United Nations estimated Monday, july 11, 2022 that the world’s population will reach 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation next year. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade, File)
FILE - Indians wearing face masks as a precaution against the COVID-19, crowd a market, in Mumbai, India, on Jan. 7, 2022. The United Nations estimated Monday, july 11, 2022 that the world’s population will reach 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation next year. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade, File)

India is on track to surpass China by mid-2023 as the world’s most populous nation, United Nations data said Wednesday, raising questions about whether a booming, young Indian population will fuel economic growth for years to come.

While India's 254 million people between ages 15 and 24 is the largest number in the world, China is struggling with an aging population and stagnant population growth. That has sparked expectations that the demographic changes could pave the way for India to become an economic and global heavyweight, , the Associated Press said.

India’s young citizenry could drive the country’s economic growth for years to come, but it might just as easily become a problem if they aren't adequately employed. Economists have cautioned that even as India’s economy is among the fastest-growing as its population rises, joblessness has also swelled.

Tech giant Apple, among other companies, hopes to turn India into a potential manufacturing hub as it moves some production out of China, where wages are rising as the working-age population shrinks.

The UN report said India will have about 2.9 million people more than China sometime in the middle of this year. India will have an estimated 1.4286 billion people versus mainland China's 1.4257 billion at that time, according to UN projections.

Demographers say the limits of population data make it impossible to calculate an exact date; India has not done a census since 2011.

China has had the world's largest population since at least 1950, the year the UN began issuing population data. Both China and India have more than 1.4 billion people, and combined they make up more than a third of the world’s 8 billion people.

Not long ago, India wasn’t expected to become the most populous until later this decade. But the timing has been sped up by a drop in China’s fertility rate, with families having fewer children.

India, by contrast, has a much younger population, a higher fertility rate, and has seen a decrease in infant mortality over the last three decades. Still, the country’s fertility rate has been steadily falling, from over five births per woman in 1960 to just over two in 2020, according to World Bank data.

The country’s population has more than quadrupled since gaining independence 76 years ago. As India looks set to become the world's largest country, it is grappling with the growing threat of climate change, deep inequalities between its urban and rural populations, economic disparities between its men and women, and a widening religious divide.

In a survey of 1,007 Indians conducted by the UN in conjunction with the report, 63% of respondents said economic issues were their top concern when thinking about population change, followed by worries about the environment, health and human rights.

“The Indian survey findings suggest that population anxieties have seeped into large portions of the general public. Yet, population numbers should not trigger anxiety or create alarm,” Andrea Wojnar, the United Nations Population Fund’s representative for India, said in a statement. She added that they should be seen as a symbol of progress and development “if individual rights and choices are being upheld.”

Many are banking on India's rising number of working age people to give it a “demographic dividend," or the potential for economic growth when a country's young population is eclipses its share of older people who are beyond their working years. It's what helped China cement its place as a global power.

“So far, we have not been able to tap into our demographic dividend adequately. While the working age population has grown quite substantially, employment has not grown,” said Mahesh Vyas, director of the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy. He added that the country has struggled to create additional employment in the last six years, with the number of jobs stagnant at 405 million.

India has had a phenomenal transformation — from an impoverished nation in 1947 into an emerging global power whose $3 trillion economy is Asia’s third largest. It is a major exporter of things like software and vaccines, and millions have escaped poverty into a growing, aspirational middle class as its high-skilled sectors have soared.

But so has joblessness. According to CMIE statistics from 2022, only 40% of working age Indians are employed.

Poonam Muttreja, head of the Population Foundation of India, agreed, saying the country must plan better for its young people.

“This large population will need a huge investment in skills for them to take advantage of the opportunities that will come up in the economy for participating in jobs. But we have to also create more jobs for them,” she said, adding that investments were also needed in education.

China responded to news of the UN report on Wednesday with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin saying “a country's demographic dividend depends not only on quantity but also on quality.”

"The population is important, so is talent... China's demographic dividend has not disappeared, the talent dividend is taking place and development momentum remains strong," Wang said at a briefing.



France Holds Rare Defense Cabinet Meeting over Iran as Tensions with US Mount

Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo
Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo
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France Holds Rare Defense Cabinet Meeting over Iran as Tensions with US Mount

Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo
Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo

French President Emmanuel Macron was convening key ministers and experts on Wednesday to discuss Iran, including its nuclear program, amid growing tensions between Tehran and US President Donald Trump, three diplomatic sources said, Reuters reported.

Such a cabinet meeting dedicated to a specific subject is rare and highlights mounting concern among Washington's European allies that the United States and Israel could launch airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities unless there is a quick negotiated deal on its nuclear program.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reinforced US military capability in the Middle East with more warplanes, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, amid a US bombing campaign against the Houthis who control much of Yemen and are supported by Iran.

A senior European official said European strategists were asking themselves whether the campaign could be a precursor to a US strike on Iran in the coming months.

Trump, who has urged Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to engage immediately in negotiations, threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if it did not come to an agreement over its nuclear program, which Western countries say amounts to weapons development.

The foreign minister of Iran's direct adversary Israel will be in Paris on Thursday. Diplomatic sources said ministers from France, Britain and Germany were hoping to discuss the Iran dossier with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio when they convene in Brussels for a NATO ministerial meeting this week.

Trump withdrew the US from a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that placed strict limits on Tehran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump also reimposed sweeping US sanctions.

Since then, Iran has far surpassed that deal's limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to that required for nuclear warheads. Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon.

France, Britain and Germany have sought in recent months to raise pressure on Iran in a bid to coax it back into discussions over its nuclear program.

They have held several rounds of talks with Iran including at technical level last week, to try to lay the groundwork for some form of agreement.

But the Trump administration has focused initially on a campaign of "maximum pressure", and the Europeans have found coordination complicated, diplomats say.

The European powers had hoped to convince Iran to begin negotiating new restrictions on its nuclear activities with a view to having a deal by August at the latest.

That would give enough time to set new limits for Iran's program and lift sanctions before the 2015 accord expires in October 2025.