Will Ethiopia Take Advantage of Sudan’s Unrest to Resolve Border Dispute?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
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Will Ethiopia Take Advantage of Sudan’s Unrest to Resolve Border Dispute?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

The border dispute between Addis Ababa and Khartoum over Al-Fashaga has returned to the fore, following Sudanese reports about “unusual” movement by the Ethiopian forces in the disputed area since the eruption of the recent unrest in Sudan.

Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, denied claims that his forces have entered the Sudanese border area, expressing confidence that the “Sudanese people will not listen to such allegations,” which he described as “false.”

The dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia over Al-Fashaga dates back to the colonial era, and several attempts to demarcate a 744-kilometer border between the two countries were unsuccessful. In 2008, negotiations between them reached a compromise, with Ethiopia recognizing the legal border, and Sudan allowing Ethiopians to continue living there without complications.

However, by the end of June 2022, tension returned again, after Sudan accused the Ethiopian army of capturing and killing seven Sudanese soldiers. According to Sudanese media sources, “Ethiopia took advantage of the bloody fighting in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, and entered Al-Fashaga area,” pointing to intense reconnaissance operations carried out by Ethiopian troops in the region.

On the other hand, the Ethiopian prime minister accused some parties of “seeking to achieve political goals by publishing allegations that aim to distort the good-neighborly relations between Ethiopia and Sudan.”

In a statement, Abiy Ahmed said: “At this critical stage, in which the common identity and destiny of the Sudanese and Ethiopian peoples face many challenges, some parties are seeking to achieve their menial political goals by spreading false allegations.”

The border issue “will be resolved through dialogue and discussions,” he stressed, rejecting attempts to take advantage of the current situation in Sudan.

Dr. Abdel-Moneim Hamat, a Sudanese political analyst, ruled out an Ethiopian military intervention in the disputed region, amid the turmoil in Sudan.

In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “Abiy Ahmed and his leadership will not adopt this approach in any way, at the present time, especially since he personally intervened more than once as a party to resolve Sudanese internal disputes, just as Sudan did in Ethiopia. Therefore, the Ethiopian government will not risk its reputation and surroundings for a cause that is not essential.”



Here’s What Happens Next During the Ceasefire in Gaza

Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
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Here’s What Happens Next During the Ceasefire in Gaza

Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)

The first week of the latest ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas group is complete. Hamas has begun to release hostages and Israel has freed nearly 300 Palestinian prisoners.

But the deal has hit its first major complication. Israel on Saturday said a female civilian hostage named Arbel Yahoud was supposed to be released and it has delayed the planned return of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.

Here’s a look at what’s ahead in the five remaining weeks of the ceasefire's first phase.

What’s happened so far

This is the second ceasefire in 15 months of the deadliest and most destructive war between Israel and Hamas, which controls Gaza. The first occurred over a year ago and lasted a week. The current ceasefire is longer and holds the potential to end the war, though the steps toward that are vastly more challenging than what’s unfolding now. The mediators are Qatar, Egypt and the United States.

Early this week, the first three Israeli hostages held in Gaza were released and the first 90 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released several hours later. On Saturday, another four hostages and 200 Palestinian prisoners were released.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have pulled back to buffer zones inside Gaza, fighting has stopped, hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian aid have entered the territory and many Palestinians displaced by the war have been returning to what remains of their homes and communities.

What’s next

Saturday was Day 7 of the ceasefire. Starting on Day 14, next Saturday, three hostages should be released every seven days in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners.

By the end of the 42 days, all living women, children and older people held by the fighters should be freed. Eventually, bodies of hostages might be included in the releases, as Israel believes at least a third of the more than 90 captives still inside Gaza were killed in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that triggered the war or have died in captivity.

By Sunday, Israel was meant to allow Palestinians to return to badly hit northern Gaza. But Israel now says Palestinians will not be able to cross north through the Netzarim corridor that bisects the territory east to west because Yahoud had not been freed.

The deal called for the release of civilian women on Saturday and soldiers were freed instead. It was not immediately clear why Yahoud was not released.

Hamas said it held Israel responsible for “any delay in implementing the agreement and its repercussions.”

A senior Hamas official said the group told mediators that Yahoud will be released next week. An Egyptian official involved in negotiations called the matter a “minor issue” that mediators were working to resolve. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Already, hundreds of anxious Palestinians were gathering and waiting to cross into northern Gaza, which like much of the rest of the territory has been largely destroyed.

One Palestinian was shot and killed near the Netzarim corridor on Saturday, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah. Israel's military didn't immediately comment.

After the first six weeks

In the ceasefire’s second phase, all remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.” Talks about Phase 2 are set to begin on Day 16, Feb. 3.

But a lot remains to be discussed. Israel has said that after the ceasefire's first phase, it will decide how to proceed.

Israel has said it won’t agree to a complete withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from the territory.

Both sides will have to agree to a plan for governing Gaza. Hamas has said it would be willing to step aside, but it may still seek a hand in any future government, which Israel has rejected. And Hamas is unlikely to give up its weapons.

If all sides reach the third phase, it is likely to be less contentious. The bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza, but who will pay for it remains unclear.