Will Ethiopia Take Advantage of Sudan’s Unrest to Resolve Border Dispute?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
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Will Ethiopia Take Advantage of Sudan’s Unrest to Resolve Border Dispute?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the president of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council Abdul Fattah al-Burhan during a previous meeting. (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

The border dispute between Addis Ababa and Khartoum over Al-Fashaga has returned to the fore, following Sudanese reports about “unusual” movement by the Ethiopian forces in the disputed area since the eruption of the recent unrest in Sudan.

Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, denied claims that his forces have entered the Sudanese border area, expressing confidence that the “Sudanese people will not listen to such allegations,” which he described as “false.”

The dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia over Al-Fashaga dates back to the colonial era, and several attempts to demarcate a 744-kilometer border between the two countries were unsuccessful. In 2008, negotiations between them reached a compromise, with Ethiopia recognizing the legal border, and Sudan allowing Ethiopians to continue living there without complications.

However, by the end of June 2022, tension returned again, after Sudan accused the Ethiopian army of capturing and killing seven Sudanese soldiers. According to Sudanese media sources, “Ethiopia took advantage of the bloody fighting in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, and entered Al-Fashaga area,” pointing to intense reconnaissance operations carried out by Ethiopian troops in the region.

On the other hand, the Ethiopian prime minister accused some parties of “seeking to achieve political goals by publishing allegations that aim to distort the good-neighborly relations between Ethiopia and Sudan.”

In a statement, Abiy Ahmed said: “At this critical stage, in which the common identity and destiny of the Sudanese and Ethiopian peoples face many challenges, some parties are seeking to achieve their menial political goals by spreading false allegations.”

The border issue “will be resolved through dialogue and discussions,” he stressed, rejecting attempts to take advantage of the current situation in Sudan.

Dr. Abdel-Moneim Hamat, a Sudanese political analyst, ruled out an Ethiopian military intervention in the disputed region, amid the turmoil in Sudan.

In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “Abiy Ahmed and his leadership will not adopt this approach in any way, at the present time, especially since he personally intervened more than once as a party to resolve Sudanese internal disputes, just as Sudan did in Ethiopia. Therefore, the Ethiopian government will not risk its reputation and surroundings for a cause that is not essential.”



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.