Oil Prices Slide on Uncertainty over Global Economic Outlook, Rate Hikes

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
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Oil Prices Slide on Uncertainty over Global Economic Outlook, Rate Hikes

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about rising interest rates, the global economy and the outlook for fuel demand outweighed support from the prospect of tighter supplies on OPEC+ supply cuts.

Brent crude slipped 75 cents, or 0.92%, to $80.91 a barrel by 0409 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $77.13 a barrel, down 74 cents, 0.95% lower, Reuters reported.

Both contracts fell more than 5% last week, their first weekly drop in five, as US implied gasoline demand fell from a year ago, fueling worries of a recession at the world's top oil consumer.

Weak US economic data and disappointing corporate earnings from the tech sector sparked growth concerns and risk aversion among investors, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. The stabilizing US dollar and climbing bond yields are also pressurizing commodity markets, she added.

Central banks from the United States to Britain and Europe are all expected to raise interest rates when they meet in the first week of May, seeking to tackle stubbornly high inflation.

China's bumpy economic recovery post COVID-19 also clouded its oil demand outlook, although Chinese customs data showed on Friday that the world's top crude importer brought in record volumes in March. China's imports from top suppliers Russia and Saudi Arabia topped 2 million barrels per day (bpd) each.

"I would cite recent mixed economic data and continued central bank intervention as the primary drivers behind the recent price correction," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services. However, many may view this as a dip-buying opportunity, he said.

Still, refining margins in Asia have weakened on record production from top refiners China and India, curbing the region's appetite for Middle East supplies loading in June.

Nevertheless, analysts and traders remained bullish about China's fuel demand recovery towards the second half of 2023 and as additional supply cuts planned by OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including Russia - from May could tighten markets.

China's oil demand recovery is expected to more than offset the slowdown in OECD demand in the near term, while sanctions and supply constraints add upside risk to prices, analysts at the National Australia Bank said, adding that Brent could rise to $92 a barrel by the end of the second quarter.

In the United States, energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in four weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.



Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
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Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)

Bahrain's economy expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, citing preliminary data.

Growth was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in non-oil activities, while oil activities declined by 3.5% over the same period, data from the Gulf nation's Information and eGovernment Authority showed.

For 2024, Bahrain's real total gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, according to the statement.

According to projections from the ministry, Bahrain's real GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, due to a 3.4% expansion in non-oil activities, coinciding with the operation of the Bapco Modernization Program.

The Bapco Modernization Program, one of Bahrain's largest energy investments, is expected to significantly raise refinery output, bolstering fiscal revenues amid efforts to diversify the economy.

Growth is forecast to reach 3.3% in 2026, supported by a 3.9% increase in non-oil activities.

"However, the forecasts will be closely monitored and updated to account for the ongoing global uncertainty and escalating turmoil that may affect the economic projections," the ministry said.

Last month, global ratings agency S&P Global downgraded Bahrain's outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing ongoing market volatility and weaker financing conditions that could increase the government's interest burden.

Escalating trade tensions have added to global economic uncertainty, clouding macroeconomic forecasts and weighing on investor and policymaker confidence around the world.