Sudan’s Neighbors Brace for Political, Security Impact of Conflict

A handout photo made available by the Indonesian Embassy KBRI Khartoum shows a battle-damaged street in Khartoum, Sudan, 23 April 2023 (issued 24 April 2023). (EPA)
A handout photo made available by the Indonesian Embassy KBRI Khartoum shows a battle-damaged street in Khartoum, Sudan, 23 April 2023 (issued 24 April 2023). (EPA)
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Sudan’s Neighbors Brace for Political, Security Impact of Conflict

A handout photo made available by the Indonesian Embassy KBRI Khartoum shows a battle-damaged street in Khartoum, Sudan, 23 April 2023 (issued 24 April 2023). (EPA)
A handout photo made available by the Indonesian Embassy KBRI Khartoum shows a battle-damaged street in Khartoum, Sudan, 23 April 2023 (issued 24 April 2023). (EPA)

With the Sudanese conflict now in its second week, regional anxiety is mounting among its seven neighboring countries over the potential fallout of the crisis. There are fears that the conflict could escalate over time and across borders, leading to wide scale displacement of people towards border regions.

This comes at a time when most of Sudan's neighbors are already grappling with various crises and are ill-prepared to handle an influx of refugees.

Five out of the seven neighboring countries - Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan - have experienced political upheaval or conflict in recent years, resulting in thousands of refugees and displaced persons.

They are also facing pressing economic and living crises.

Moreover, the neighbors are wary of a potential mass displacement of refugees into their territories.

Official statistics indicate that over five million Sudanese live in Egypt, including roughly 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers.

The Sudanese crisis could have security implications for Libya, which is dealing with deep internal divisions. Sudanese mercenaries and militias played an active role in Libya’s internal conflict after 2011.

Additionally, Sudan serves as a starting and crossing point for migrants attempting to reach Europe through Libya.

For its part, Chad closed its borders with Sudan “until further notice” since the fighting erupted on April 15. This, however, did not prevent the influx of about 20,000 refugees to the border, according to the United Nations.

The Chadian government also said it had disarmed a battalion of 320 soldiers belonging to the Sudanese paramilitary forces that had entered its territory on Monday.

Chad is among the largest African nations hosting refugees. Out of a million displaced persons it hosts, there are 580,000 refugees who have fled conflicts in Sudan, the Central African Republic and Cameroon.

Currently, 406,000 internally displaced persons are currently staying around Lake Chad. The situation has put immense strain on Chad’s already limited resources.

As for South Sudan, its security concerns are accompanied by economic ones as well. The country, which separated from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war, fears disruption to its oil production of 170,000 barrels per day via a pipeline that passes through its northern neighbor’s territories.

Sudan hosts 800,000 refugees from South Sudan, and any collective return of these refugees may increase pressure on the fragile infrastructure providing basic aid to over two million internally displaced people in South Sudan.



Sickness Can Be ‘Death Sentence’ in Gaza as War Fuels Disease 

A Palestinian woman reacts at the site following Israeli strikes on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, at the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, September 10, 2024. (Reuters)
A Palestinian woman reacts at the site following Israeli strikes on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, at the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, September 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Sickness Can Be ‘Death Sentence’ in Gaza as War Fuels Disease 

A Palestinian woman reacts at the site following Israeli strikes on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, at the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, September 10, 2024. (Reuters)
A Palestinian woman reacts at the site following Israeli strikes on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, at the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, September 10, 2024. (Reuters)

In Gaza, falling ill can be a death sentence. Cancer patients are waiting to die, polio has returned, and many of the doctors and nurses who might have offered help are dead while the hospitals they worked at have been reduced to rubble.

Doctors and health professionals say that even if the Israel-Hamas war were to stop tomorrow, it will take years to rebuild the healthcare sector and people will continue to die because preventable diseases are not being treated on time.

"People are dying on a daily basis because they cannot get the basic treatment they need," said Riham Jafari, advocacy and communications coordinator at rights group ActionAid Palestine.

Cancer patients "are waiting for their turn to die," she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Last week, Israel and Hamas agreed on limited pauses in the fighting to allow children to be vaccinated against polio after a one-year-old baby boy was found to be partially paralyzed from the disease, the first case in the crowded strip in 25 years.

But even as crowds gathered in the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis for vaccinations on Sept. 5, bombs continued to fall in other areas with Gaza health officials saying an Israeli strike killed five people at the Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir Al-Balah.

"It will take long and so much effort in order to restore the level of care that we used to have in Gaza," said Mohammed Aghaalkurdi, medical program lead at Medical Aid for Palestinians.

Every day he sees around 180 children with skin diseases that he "just cannot treat," he said.

"Due to vaccination campaign interruptions, lack of supplies, lack of hygiene items and infection prevention control material, it (healthcare) is just deteriorating."

The conflict was triggered when Hamas-led fighters attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Since then, more than 40,800 Palestinians have been killed by Israel's offensive in the enclave, according to the Gaza health ministry, with around 92,000 wounded.

But beyond the death toll from the fighting and airstrikes, people are also succumbing to illnesses that could be cured in normal circumstances.

As with the re-emergence of polio, children will bear the brunt of these long-term consequences, health experts say.

"We are talking about disabilities, we are talking about intellectual disabilities, mental health issues," said Aghaalkurdi.

"Things that will stick to the child until they die."

SPECIALISTS KILLED

At least 490 healthcare workers have been killed since the conflict erupted, according to Gaza's health ministry. A Reuters investigation found that 55 highly qualified specialist doctors were among those killed.

With each specialist killed, Gaza has lost a source of knowledge and human connections, a devastating blow on top of the destruction of most of the Strip's hospitals.

Many people have become weak from a lack of food, as prices of basic commodities have more than quadrupled since the conflict began. When they become ill, they are also too frightened to journey to the few remaining hospitals, Jafari said.

Eighty-two percent of children aged between 6 and 23 months have limited access to quality food, according to a report by the Global Network Against Food Crises, and more than 90% of children under 5-years-old suffer from infectious diseases.

Meanwhile, skin diseases are rampant because of a lack of cleaning supplies and hygiene products, Jafari said. In markets, a bottle of shampoo can cost around $50.

Israel has severely restricted the flow of food and aid into Gaza, and humanitarian agencies have warned of the risk of famine.

Jafari expects a reckoning after the war ends.

"There is delayed suffering, delayed sadness, there are diseases that are being delayed," she said. "There is an entire journey of suffering that is being delayed until the end of the war," she said.

CANCER 'DEATH SENTENCE'

Manal Ragheb Fakhri al-Masri, 42, is one of those facing that health reckoning.

Displaced seven times with her nine children, she has a heart condition and a benign tumor in her stomach and was supposed to leave Gaza for treatment earlier this year.

But then her husband was killed and she could not bear to leave her children.

Now, having also suffered several strokes, she is bedridden, unable to leave her tent by the sea in Al-Mawasi, which Israel had declared a safe zone. She has not had any medicine in five months and has not even been able to shower for two weeks.

"My husband used to take care of me and get medicine and feed his children," she said in a phone interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "Now I do not know what do. We do not have the most basic things."

Her children try to help as much as they can and sometimes bring her seawater for her to wash with but the salty liquid offers no respite. Her children are also all suffering from red rashes but they have no creams to soothe their burning limbs.

Waseem Alzaanin, a general practitioner with the Palestine Red Crescent Society, said the lack of drugs, equipment and medical facilities is killing his cancer patients.

Gaza's only cancer center was destroyed earlier this year, he said, and many of his stage-one cancer patients are now classified as stage-four.

"The most basic requirements are not present. We cannot do anything except give them painkillers and make them comfortable with what life they have left," he said.

"It is like a death sentence," he added. "Let us not kid ourselves. We have no medical system."