Oil Rises as Falling US Inventories Refocus Market on Demand

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Rises as Falling US Inventories Refocus Market on Demand

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil rose on Wednesday after plunging more than 2% in the previous session as reports of falling US crude oil and fuel inventories refocused investors on robust demand in the world's top oil consumer.

Brent crude climbed by 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.07 a barrel by 0358 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.46 a barrel, Reuters reported.

US crude oil stocks fell by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended April 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Analysts had expected crude inventories to fall by about 1.5 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, the sources said the API reported.

Oil prices dived more than 2% on Tuesday, returning to the near the same level before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producer allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, announced an additional output reduction in early April.

The upward momentum brought by the OPEC cut is running out and Russian oil exports did not show any obvious decrease, leaving the supply-side with no further supports, said Song Yang, analyst from China Galaxy Futures in a note.

While the API data pushed the market higher on Wednesday, lingering economic concerns and expectations of further interest rate hikes that could curtail fuel demand growth are countering the signs of improving short-term consumption gains.

US consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April as worries about the future mounted, further heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year.

"(The data) revealed a sharper-than-expected moderation in consumer confidence, which adds to the list of downside surprises seen since the start of April and points to a more downbeat economic outlook," said Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, in a note to clients.

The market is watching out for uncertainties around any spillovers from First Republic Bank which on Monday reported a flight in deposits of more than $100 billion, stoking fears of a potential banking crisis that could impact the US economy.

Investors also showed concern that potential new interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks could slow economic growth and dent energy demand in the United States, Britain and the European Union.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are all expected to raise rates at their coming meetings. The Fed meets May 2-3.



Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Decline in Two Years as Risk Subsides

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Decline in Two Years as Risk Subsides

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices rose on Friday though were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.

Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.7%, to $68.23 a barrel by 1036 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 49 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to $65.73.

During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.

"The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

"The market also has to keep eyes on the OPEC+ meeting – we do expect room for one more month of an accelerated unwinding basis balances and structure, but the key question is how strong the summer demand indicators are showing up to be."

The OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide on August production levels.

Prices were also being supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in the middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.

Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that the independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week.

Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.

China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data.