OPEC: We Do Not Target Oil Prices, IEA Should be 'Very Careful'

A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
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OPEC: We Do Not Target Oil Prices, IEA Should be 'Very Careful'

A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) should be "very careful" about discouraging investment in the oil industry, which was vital for global economic growth, announced OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais.

Ghais warned that such statements could lead to oil market volatility in the future.

He said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, were not targeting oil prices but focusing on market fundamentals.

He warned that finger-pointing and misrepresenting the actions of the oil exporters and their allies was "counter-productive."

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has been critical of the OPEC+ group's surprise announcement of production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Birol said OPEC should be careful about pushing oil prices up as that would translate into a weaker global economy.

If anything would lead to future volatility, it is the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil, knowing that all data-driven outlooks envisage the need for more of this precious commodity to fuel global economic growth and prosperity in the decades to come, especially in the developing world, added Birol.

On Thursday, Ghais said blaming oil for inflation was "erroneous and technically incorrect" and that the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil is what would lead to market volatility.

Saudi Arabia also blamed the IEA and its initial predictions for a 3 million bpd fall in Russian production on the back of the Ukraine invasion last year for Washington's decision to sell oil from its reserves.

Russian Deputy Prime Alexander Novak said on Thursday that the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers saw no need for further output cuts despite lower-than-expected Chinese demand but that the organization can constantly adjust policy if necessary.

He stressed that Russia reached its targeted output this month after announcing cuts of 500,000 bpd, or five percent of its oil production, until the year-end.

Russia is part of the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries that announced a combined reduction of around 1.16 million bpd earlier this month, a surprise decision the US described as unwise.

Novak added that Russian oil and gas condensate production is expected to decline to around 515 million tons (10.3 million bpd) this year from 535 million tons in 2022, broadly in line with a Reuters report this week.

Asked if the group needed to lower its output further because of falling oil prices, Novak replied: "Well, no, of course not because we only made a decision (on the reduction) a month ago, and it will come into force from May for those countries that have joined."

He added that OPEC+ did not expect a shortage in oil supplies in global markets after production cuts, as expected by the International Energy Agency.

Russia maintained its oil production and exports by increasing sales outside of Europe following the severe Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.

Novak said that Russia would this year divert to Asia 140 million tons of oil and oil products that previously would have headed to Europe. He also said Russia would supply 80 million tons and 90 million tons of oil and oil products to the West in 2023.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Thursday, recouping earlier losses fueled by fears of a recession in the US and increased Russian oil exports, which offset the impact of OPEC production cuts.

New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March, and shipments declined.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing US crude inventories fell last week by 5.1 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels helped to limit the price fall, far exceeding analyst forecasts of a 1.5 million drop in a Reuters poll.

OPEC's share of India's oil imports fell fastest in 2022/23 to the lowest in at least 22 years, as intake of cheaper Russian oil surged, data from industry sources show.

Sources said that oil loading from western Russian ports in April would be the highest since 2019, exceeding 2.4 million bpd, despite Moscow's pledge to reduce production.

Moscow has also increased fuel supplies to Türkiye, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.