Iraq still Faces Major Challenges Despite ISIS Defeat

A member of Iraqi Federal Police waves an Iraqi flag as they celebrate victory of military operations against ISIS in West Mosul, Iraq July 2, 2017. (Reuters)
A member of Iraqi Federal Police waves an Iraqi flag as they celebrate victory of military operations against ISIS in West Mosul, Iraq July 2, 2017. (Reuters)
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Iraq still Faces Major Challenges Despite ISIS Defeat

A member of Iraqi Federal Police waves an Iraqi flag as they celebrate victory of military operations against ISIS in West Mosul, Iraq July 2, 2017. (Reuters)
A member of Iraqi Federal Police waves an Iraqi flag as they celebrate victory of military operations against ISIS in West Mosul, Iraq July 2, 2017. (Reuters)

Even though Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi announced on Saturday that the war against ISIS was over, the “major victory” will remain fragile as long as the root causes for the extremists' rise are not tackled.

Iraq waged a long and devastating campaign to wipe ISIS from the map after the extremists threatened the country’s very existence by seizing roughly one third of its territory in 2014.

But while Baghdad may be basking in its battlefield success for now, relying on military might will not be enough in the longer term.

"Everything remains to be done to dry out the earth on which ISIS flourished," said Karim Bitar, a regional expert at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.

"The extremists have been deprived of oxygen and defeated militarily but the womb from which they emerged remains fertile."

Now the fighting is finished, the list of demands facing Iraq's authorities is daunting -- and includes many key challenges that Baghdad has failed to address for years.

"It involves first of all consolidating the power of the central authorities while pursuing inclusive policies that do not marginalize any community," Bitar said.

"Then it is necessary to tackle reconstruction, economic and social problems, stem corruption and ensure the equitable distribution of oil incomes."

For decades, the country has known nothing but war, starting with the war with Iran (1980 – 1988), the invasion of Kuwait (1990 – 1991) and the US invasion (2003 – 2011.) It is now on its knees after the brutal years of ISIS rule in the territory it controlled and the harrowing battle to defeat the extremists.

A donor meeting for the country is set to be held in Kuwait in February and estimates put the reconstruction bill facing Iraq at some $100 billion (85 billion euros).

Iraq expert Mohammad Ould Mohamedou, a professor at Geneva's Graduate Institute, cautioned that even the victory on the battlefield might not be as definitive as its seems.

The extremists have melted into the desert and maintained their capacity to launch brutal attacks across the country -- reverting to their roots as insurgent fighters.

"The question of ISIS is not going to disappear. The military aspect is far from over, and in this type of conflict, hostilities remain for a long time at a level that requires a substantial commitment," Ould Mohamedou said.

Key to preventing a resurgence by the extremists will be dealing with the profound sectarian and social grievances.

"The work of reconstruction, in this case, is as much social as in terms of infrastructure," said Ould Mohamedou.

Bitar said that as long as the Sunni grievances remain, then the possibility of the emergence of a new insurgent movement cannot be ruled out.

“Proxy wars and weak central governments will not be able to close the chapter on violent extremism,” he warned.

As all attention has focused on wiping out ISIS, experts and Iraq's Western backers warn that another major threat may have emerged from within the very fight to defeat the group.

That is the rise and legitimization of the array of militia groups who clubbed together under the banner of the Hashed al-Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, to play a key role in defeating ISIS.

While to some the militia fighters are heroes who came to Iraq's aid in its hour of need, others fear they are an unruly and unaccountable force.

Nominally under the command of Abadi, the PMF are dominated by Iranian-backed groups accused of being proxies for Tehran.

How the central government now goes about dealing with the 60,000 to 140,000 fighters estimated to have joined the PMF, and whether Baghdad can really bring them to heel, is a major issue.

"The biggest security challenge is internal, because many of the myriad of PMF groups are turning into local mafias, setting up illegal checkpoints, toll roads, and the like, to support themselves financially," said Kirk Sowell, an expert who publishes Inside Iraqi Politics.

"In this sense, ISIS is more relevant to the rest of the world, but for Iraqis, a local armed gang which needs money is far more dangerous."



Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
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Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa

Hatem Abdelhamid stands amid his once-thriving date palms in northern Sudan, helpless as a prolonged war-driven power outage cripples irrigation, causing devastating crop losses and deepening the country's food crisis.

"I've lost 70 to 75 percent of my crops this year," he said, surveying the dying palms in Tanqasi, a village on the Nile in Sudan's Northern State.

"I'm trying really hard to keep the rest of the crops alive," he told AFP.

Sudan's agricultural sector -- already battered by a two-year conflict and economic crisis -- is now facing another crushing blow from the nationwide power outages.

Since the war between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023, state-run power plants have been repeatedly targeted, suffering severe damage and ultimately leaving farms without water.

Like most Sudanese farms, Abdelhamid's depends on electric-powered irrigation -- but the system has been down "for over two months" due to the blackouts.

Sudan had barely recovered from the devastating 1985 drought and famine when war erupted again in 2023, delivering a fresh blow to the country's agriculture.

Agriculture remains the main source of food and income for 80 percent of the population, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Now in its third year, the conflict has plunged more than half the population into acute food insecurity, with famine already taking hold in at least five areas and millions more at risk across conflict-hit regions in the west, center and south.

The war has also devastated infrastructure, killed tens of thousands of people, and displaced 13 million.

A 2024 joint study by the United Nations Development Programme and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) found that nearly a third of rural households have lost irrigation and water access since the war began.

Without electricity to power his irrigation system, Abdelhamid -- like thousands of farmers across the country -- was forced to rely on diesel-powered pumps.

But with fuel scarce and prices now more than 20 times higher than before the war, even that option is out of reach for many.

"I used to spend 10,000 Sudanese pounds (about four euros according to the black market rate) for irrigation each time," said another farmer, Abdelhalim Ahmed.

"Now it costs me 150,000 pounds (around 60 euros) because there is no electricity," he told AFP.

Ahmed said he has lost three consecutive harvests -- including crops like oranges, onions, tomatoes and dates.

With seeds, fertilizers and fuel now barely available, many farmers say they won't be able to replant for the next cycle.

In April, the FAO warned that "below average rainfall" and ongoing instability were closing the window to prevent further deterioration.

A June study by IFPRI also projected Sudan's overall economic output could shrink by as much as 42 percent if the war continues, with the agricultural sector contracting by more than a third.

"Our analysis shows massive income losses across all households and a sharp rise in poverty, especially in rural areas and among women," said Khalid Siddig, a senior research fellow at IFPRI.