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Exclusive - Can ISIS Threaten the World Cup in Russia?

Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Can ISIS Threaten the World Cup in Russia?

Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)

It appears that the battle against the terrorist ISIS group and its affiliates will not end any time soon. The group has demonstrated that it can change its tactics and adapt in new environments, making it increasingly difficult to defeat it.

The latest threat posed by ISIS is related to the FIFA World Cup, hosted by Russia next month. The event will take place between June 14 and July 15 and will cover 11 cities.

All signs indicate that the terrorists are seeking to carry out an attack in Russia, raising many questions over why they would want to shift their battle there.

Has ISIS had a hand in recent terrorist attacks in Russia and some neighboring countries?

The alarm bells over ISIS staging an attack during the World Cup rang when the group circulated a poster with a direct threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying: “You will pay the price for killing Muslims.” The poster showed an armed ISIS member against the backdrop of a major explosion at a crowded football stadium. Putin appeared in the corner of the poster, with a red target sign aimed at him.

We here must ask why this threat was specifically made against Putin and is this the first time?

It is understandable for ISIS to consider the Russian president as its major enemy given that Moscow’s military intervention in Syria was a decisive factor in shifting the battle in favor of the regime. The advanced Russian weapons used in the war-torn country have also led to major losses in ISIS ranks, as opposed to the lesser defeats they were dealt by the US-backed Kurdish forces.

Can ISIS’ revenge against Russia take place in the summer of 2018?

The above-mentioned poster was not the first aimed at Russia. Its “Wafa” media firm had in October used the image of Argentine football superstar Lionel Messi to promote its terrorist propaganda against Russia. It showed Messi crying blood tears behind bars. Written on the poster was a threat: “Fair terrorism. You are fighting a country that does not know the meaning of defeat.”

Another poster showed an ISIS member at a Russian football stadium with a statement, written in Russian and Arabic, saying: “Wait for us.”

Some have wondered why Russia would be targeted during the World Cup, given that an attack would leave scores of victims from not just Russia, but across the globe.

Some believe that succeeding in carrying out an attack would give the terrorists a massive propaganda boost and bolster its media image that has been weakened given the losses in Iraq and Syria.

The participation of the Saudi Arabian and Iranian national teams in the World Cup could be seen as added motivation for ISIS to attack Russia, said a report released by Britain’s IHS Markit.

The compilers of the report overlooked the fact that Egypt is also competing in the tournament. Egypt has since February been carrying out a major security operation against ISIS in the Sinai region. In recent days, the military and security forces eliminated the group’s second-in-command in Sinai, Nasser Abou Zaqoum, which could be a motive for the terrorists to take their revenge against Egypt and its fans in Russia.

Russia has not been spared ISIS attacks in the past, with the latest assault taking place in February. The group claimed responsibility for the attack against a Dagestan church that left five people dead. In December, the group claimed responsibility for an attack against a supermarket in St. Petersburg that wounded 13 shoppers. In August, ISIS claimed a stabbing attack in Surgut that injured eight people.

A cause for concern for Russian authorities is the extent of ISIS’ reach in the country as demonstrated by its attack in April 2017 against a security service bureau in Khabarovsk that left two people dead.

ISIS attacks against Russia date back to 2015, making it evident that the World Cup could indeed be threatened by the group. The security forces in the country are taking its threats seriously, demonstrated in an announcement days ago that they had arrested a pro-ISIS group that was plotting an attack in Rostov. The security forces confiscated during their raid on the cell several weapons and explosives, which were ready to be set off. Media reports said that instructions for the cell to carry out its attack came from Syria.

Is there a chance to save the World Cup from ISIS, which has, without a doubt, been planning to carry out an attack in Russia?

Head of the Russian Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov recently confirmed that ISIS terrorists will be seeking to target the World Cup, especially since several of those who were defeated in Syria and Iraq have headed to former Soviet republics that neighbor Russia.

This fear was backed with alarming figures that showed some 4,500 Russians had joined ISIS, while 20,000 people from neighboring countries are suspected of involvement with extremist religious groups.

Russia is not alone in its concerns over ISIS. European countries share its fears given that droves of its people will be heading to the tournament. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson had recently traveled to Moscow for talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss various issues, including security at the World Cup.

In Russia, meanwhile, the Interior Ministry will seek to boost its security measures through establishing new police units to ensure the safety of the fans.

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Long-Suffering Yemeni Families Flee Renewed Fighting

A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
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Long-Suffering Yemeni Families Flee Renewed Fighting

A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)

As fighting escalates once again in Yemen's long-running war, thousands of families have been forced from their homes, many of them for a second or third time.

In the Al-Farsi camp in Aden, Arwa told AFP how she, her husband and their four children left Mokha on Yemen's western coast as it was seized by Iran-backed Houthi fighters.

They shared a single motorcycle to travel 200 kilometers, first to Al-Arah in the Lahj governorate and then on to Aden, temporary seat of Yemen's government.

"We couldn't find any means of transport... We stayed out in the cold and didn't have clothes to keep us warm," Arwa told AFP at the camp, where sat on the ground by a tent.

The camp currently hosts 128 families living under canvas along dirt paths where barefoot children run.

Their tents are sparsely equipped -- some bedding, cooking pots, and a few clothes and belongings that the families managed to bring with them when they ran.

It is not the first time Arwa has been forced to flee her home.

Nine years ago she left Maqbanah in Taiz governorate to head to Mokha, also because of the war.

"I hope I can find a house to live in with my children. We're exhausted by the heat, the dust and the humiliation," she said. "I hope the situation improves and we can return to our home and our families."

Armin Yedgarian, a representative of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said the camp was "in dire need of more support", adding that its 8,800 inhabitants included many elderly people and women with children.

International organizations, including the World Food Program, distribute meals to the displaced.

Arwa received a portion of rice to feed her children. But she regrets that her seven-year-old daughter, her only school-aged child, has not been attending class since the family was forced to head to Aden.

- No schooling -

At Aden's Al-Firdaws camp, which currently shelters about 110 families who arrived over the past two weeks, the acting representative of UNICEF's office in Yemen, Obiya Atchieng, told AFP that families' needs were not limited to food and basic supplies.

"Most of the children were enrolled in schools," he says. "Our team carried out a field visit to assess the possibility of providing education services."

Last week, UNICEF said 57,000 children had been displaced inside Yemen in just two weeks and 243 schools had been closed or suspended, affecting more than 137,000 students.

Even before the latest escalation, 3.2 million school-age children were not enrolled.

After years of relative calm, Yemen's civil war flared back to life in July against the backdrop of the broader conflict in the Middle East.

In the past 10 days, a surprise Houthi offensive enabled the group to expand its areas of control as far as the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, and by extension, the Suez Canal.

- 'Hearts beating' -

As a result of a 2022 ceasefire, those under the age of four have not previously experienced conflict of this intensity.

"The sounds of explosions were new to the children, and now any loud noise unsettles them, even if it's a motorcycle," said one 39-year-old father of two who remained in Mokha despite the Houthi takeover.

"I try to reassure them and convince them there is no danger. But even when they're in my arms, I can feel their hearts beating rapidly against my chest."

The man said he had been displaced from the city of Hodeidah eight years ago, and had no desire for it to happen again.

Noha, a housewife and mother of two children aged eight and 10, said she broke down in tears when she heard they were fleeing from Al-Khokha in western Yemen -- which the Houthis captured less than two weeks ago -- to her husband's family home in Aden.

"Because I cried, the children cried. We left in a bus with our neighbors and I haven't been able to make the children feel safe."

"Today I learned that my neighbor, a mother of six children who was in her final month of pregnancy, was also displaced and died in Aden two days after we arrived because of postpartum hemorrhage," she said.

"The newborn baby girl is in the incubator, and the other children and her husband are in a terrible, miserable state."

Features

Trump Shattered Canada’s Old US Relationship. Carney is Building a New One in Europe

FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
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Trump Shattered Canada’s Old US Relationship. Carney is Building a New One in Europe

FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)

For nearly four decades, Canada built its economy around closer integration with the United States. President Donald Trump has turned that dependence into leverage, imposing tariffs, threatening Canada’s sovereignty and openly seeking to pull Canadian industrial production south.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has moved on. Rather than return to trade talks or wait for the next US president to restore the old relationship, he is urgently building a future in which Canada is less dependent on America, The Associated Press said.

Last week, Carney embraced the prospect of Canada becoming the European Union’s first associate member, not as a step toward full membership, but as a way to reduce Canada’s dependence on any single country without ceding control over its own decisions.

“There is now a price to be paid for access to the United States market,” Carney said Sunday, pointing to tariffs, US investment commitments and demands for domestic policy changes.

Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday that countries need enough economic strength to keep any one power from dictating their choices.

Building options beyond the US

He carried that argument into a meeting Sunday with French President Emmanuel Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, the French territory just off Newfoundland’s coast.

“Canada and Europe will build an alliance for the future that will strengthen our collective resilience so we can live our lives as we choose based on the values that we share,” Carney said while standing alongside Macron.

Carney’s relentless schedule reflects the urgency of his push to build alternatives to the United States.

He began last week in Toronto hosting some of the world’s biggest investors, flew to Strasbourg, France, for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union address, raced to Liverpool, England, to meet Britain’s new prime minister and returned to Strasbourg to address the European Parliament.

He met Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon before flying back to Ottawa to meet Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. On Monday, he is set to open a new session of Parliament before heading to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

Europe becomes the alternative

Trump has suggested Canada’s closer relationship with the EU could amount to a “hostile act” and threatened “very heavy tariffs” on Europe if he judged the move unfriendly.

Canada could become a test case for other middle powers trying to avoid being pushed around by larger countries. In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Carney argued that “middle powers must act together,” warning that “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

Støre echoed Carney on Sunday, saying tariffs should not become “a weapon to be used against countries, because we will all end up losers.”

The next major step in shaping that proposed relationship is an Oct. 29-30 Canada-EU summit in Montreal.

Unwinding 40 years of dependence

For Canada, that means undoing some of the reliance developed over nearly 40 years.

The 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and later NAFTA deepened integration, creating cross-border supply chains in autos, energy and manufacturing. Roughly 70% of Canada’s exports went to the US Europe remains nowhere close to replacing the US market.

Carney walked away from trade negotiations in August rather than accept terms he said Ottawa could not live with. The talks remain suspended, and Carney said Friday that leaving the table was the right decision.

“It was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner,” Carney said recently. “That time is over.”

Investment chair wants to ‘crank the non-US’

Dominic Barton, Carney’s pick to chair Invest in Canada and a former global head of McKinsey & Co., said diversification does not mean abandoning the United States.

“We can’t complacently count on it,” Barton said. “It’s not about, let’s not do stuff with the US It’s let’s crank the non-US Let’s be way more ambitious on that side.”

Barton, a former Canadian ambassador to China, said Canada has been too inward-looking.

“We are not very global,” he said, calling Trump’s pressure a “jolt” Canada should use to build more global companies.

Carney wants to double non-US trade over the next decade and aims for a free-trade deal with India by year’s end. He said Canada’s tariff-free access to 1.5 billion consumers could double within six months.

Canada sells the trust America is losing

Carney is trying to turn growing doubts about the US as a predictable place to invest into a Canadian advantage. His pitch to global capital is increasingly clear: where Trump’s America uses tariffs and uncertainty as leverage, Canada offers stability, rule of law and reliability.

“The most sought after commodity today is trust,” Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said. “The world has changed and America has changed. And I think the world has taken notice.”

Trump may ultimately have done Canada a favor by forcing the country to confront its dependence, Barton said.

“Maybe in 20 years, we’ll thank Trump for shaking us out of our complacency,” Barton said. “Let’s use the moment.”

The ambition has limits. EU “associate membership” does not yet exist, and Europe cannot quickly replace a US market that buys nearly three-quarters of Canadian exports.

But Carney is hardly alone in concluding that Canada must rely less on the United States.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, from the opposition Conservatives, said the government “had no choice but to take this path.”

That conclusion was particularly difficult for Harper as “one who has long been and known to be a great admirer of America” and who regarded Canada’s close relationship with the US as “among this country’s most precious assets.”

The current US administration now views the countries’ economic integration as incompatible with Canada maintaining its sovereignty, he said.

“Thus, to maintain that sovereignty, we must pursue diminished reliance on the United States,” Harper said. “I do find this all very sad, just as equally necessary.”

Features

Voluntary Return or Pushed Out Against their Will? Migrants in Tunisia Go Home

African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
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Voluntary Return or Pushed Out Against their Will? Migrants in Tunisia Go Home

African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)

Less than a year after arriving in Tunisia, Michael Oppona had not planned to return to Ghana.

But, faced with increasingly harsh pressure from local authorities, he is among thousands of sub-Saharan migrants seeking to head home.

Many, like Oppona, have registered for a free return to their countries of origin.

But humanitarians say many migrants and refugees are being pushed out against their will.

Oppona, 37, had crossed the Sahara with his wife and two toddlers before arriving in Tunis but Europe proved out of reach after a 2023 deal with Tunis to curb migrant departures.

"The people here, the government... they treat us like we're not human," said Oppona, waiting for a "voluntary return" appointment near the International Organization for Migration headquarters in Tunis.

Many sub-Saharan migrants in Tunisia face increasingly harsh conditions following a speech by President Kais Saied in 2023 in which he said "hordes of illegal migrants" were posing a demographic threat.

The IOM told AFP it had helped 4,965 migrants return to their countries of origin from January 1 to August 31.

The IOM's program is separate from a namesake program run by the Tunisian government, and operates a major "return hub" near the city of Sfax.

Authorities did not respond to several requests by AFP for interviews and a visit the center.

In June, a Tunisian National Guard official told AFP that nearly 5,000 migrants had been sent to their home countries in the preceding 12 months and that "near-daily" return flights were now scheduled.

But humanitarian sources say these returns should not be considered "voluntary", arguing that socio-economic and political pressures including racism were deliberately forcing migrants to leave Tunisia.

"These are clearly expulsions," one source said.

Humanitarian sources also said migrants were at times coerced to leave even when it was unsafe for them in their home country.

"Authorities say that migrants stay at the so-called 'return hubs' for about two weeks, whereas we know that that process can take months, especially with people without documentation," one said.

The sources also said the conditions in which migrants were held were unclear, adding that some might have been sent to the wrong country.

"We've seen that more people have been arriving in Libya lately," one said.

UN experts in July said they were alarmed by an "alleged system of mass detention, expulsion and trafficking" at the Tunisia-Libya border.

Neither Tunisian nor Libyan authorities have commented on the allegations.

The humanitarian sources to whom AFP spoke also raised concerns over the lack of official information regarding the government's return program.

"We don't know how the authorities have been repatriating people who hold no documents, for example," one source said.

More than 40 global NGOs have said that refugees and migrants in Tunisia faced harsh mistreatment, including rape, according to testimonies they gathered.

In a joint statement in July, the NGOs -- including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International -- said "refugees, asylum seekers and migrants have faced racist violence" in Tunisia, added to "arbitrary detention, collective expulsions, abuse, torture and other ill-treatment".

Their statement marked the three-year anniversary of a controversial deal the European Union signed with Tunisia to provide Tunis with financing, equipment and training to stop irregular departures.

The groups said the deal came at "a significant cost to human rights and dignity" and called the EU "complicit".

Campaigners say Tunisia's crackdown on organizations that supported migrants, compounded by the suspension of the UN refugee agency's operations in 2024, have barred thousands from receiving help.

Using pseudonyms, 24-year-old Moussa and 22-year-old Karim from Guinea also waited for an IOM "voluntary return" appointment in Tunis.

The two friends said they came to Tunis three years ago with one aim: to cross to Europe.

"But it's impossible to go now, and impossible to stay," said Karim.

Moussa said there was "more pressure now", his voice shaking.

"You're not free. The police prevent you from going anywhere -- to work or get something to eat," he said.

"So why not go back home?"