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Moody’s Slashes Forecast for Turkey’s 2018 Economic Growth

Moody's Sign - REUTERS
Moody's Sign - REUTERS
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Moody’s Slashes Forecast for Turkey’s 2018 Economic Growth

Moody's Sign - REUTERS
Moody's Sign - REUTERS

International credit rating agency Moody’s has lowered Turkey’s growth forecast for 2018 from 4 percent to 2.5 percent on the grounds of increasing oil prices and loss of value in the Turkish Lira.

The rating agency has emphasized that this was influenced by the statements made by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regarding monetary policies and measures which he will take after presidential and parliamentary elections taking place on 24 June.

The decision to lower Turkey's growth forecast, which hit 7.4 percent last year, came after Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded Turkish sovereign debt rate for similar reasons.

Earlier in May, S & P cut the country's foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'BB-/B' from 'BB/B' but with a stable outlook.

"We are downgrading Turkey because of what we view as increasing macroeconomic imbalances," the agency said in a statement.

Also, the central bank raised its 2018 inflation forecast to 8.4 percent from 7.9 percent, with the year-end inflation forecast for 2019 remained unchanged at 6.5 percent.

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Gold Gains over 1% as Dollar, Yields Ease; Spotlight on Trade

A gold seller arranges gold bracelets at a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown, Thailand, January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/ File Photo
A gold seller arranges gold bracelets at a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown, Thailand, January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/ File Photo
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20
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Gold Gains over 1% as Dollar, Yields Ease; Spotlight on Trade

A gold seller arranges gold bracelets at a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown, Thailand, January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/ File Photo
A gold seller arranges gold bracelets at a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown, Thailand, January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/ File Photo

Gold prices gained over 1% on Monday as the dollar and US bond yields weakened amid uncertainty over trade talks ahead of a US deadline of August 1 for countries to strike deals or face more tariffs.

Spot gold was up 1.2% at $3,390.79 per ounce at 9:52 ET (1352 GMT). US gold futures were up 1.3% to $3,402.40.

The US dollar index was down 0.4%, making dollar-denominated gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than one-week low, Reuters reported.

"With the August 1st deadline looming, it brings a level of uncertainty to the market and that certainly is supportive," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

The European Union is exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the US as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats.

On the interest rate front, traders are pricing about a 63% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful.

Talk of earlier than expected U.S. rate cuts is building, with speculation around a possible replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and reshaping of the Fed adding to market jitters, Meger said.

Gold is considered a hedge against uncertainty and tends to perform well in a low interest rate environment.

Data showed that the world's leading gold consumer, China, brought in 63 metric tons of the precious metal last month, the lowest amount since January. Its imports of platinum in June fell 6.1% from the prior month.

Spot silver gained 1.8% to $38.86 per ounce, platinum rose 2.2% to $1,453.17 and palladium was 3.5% higher at $1,284.46.