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Debate in Tunisia over Role of Currency Exchange against Black Market

A shopkeeper counts money in of his shop at a bazar in Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters file photo)
A shopkeeper counts money in of his shop at a bazar in Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters file photo)
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Debate in Tunisia over Role of Currency Exchange against Black Market

A shopkeeper counts money in of his shop at a bazar in Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters file photo)
A shopkeeper counts money in of his shop at a bazar in Tunis, Tunisia. (Reuters file photo)

The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has allowed foreign exchange activities outside the banking system, in favor of a group of licensed manual exchange offices. This has allowed financial activities to develop and evolve over the past months, reaching about 25 offices, up from seven in June.

BCT Governor Marouane Abassi confirmed that the bank has approved 45 applications to open exchange offices since the beginning of the year, which is expected to contribute to increasing the number of those offices that work in coordination with the Central Bank and the rest of the banking system.

Abbasi hopes this will curb illegal and speculative activities that are part of illegal financial operations, such as in the black market.

There are currently six exchange offices in Tunis, six in Sousse and three in each of Nabeul, Mahdia and Madania.

Legally, exchange offices are bound to the BCT, which determines the conditions for obtaining their licenses and the reasons for revoking their authorization in case of breaches.

Anyone wishing to engage in manual exchange is required to provide a bank guarantee of about $17,000 to the central bank.

The bank confirmed that licensed manual exchange offices will contribute to the legalization of currency purchase, which will limit illegal means of buying and selling currencies in Tunisia.

At least $1 billion is traded outside the banking system, leading to enormous economic damage resulting from the decline in domestic reserve of foreign currencies and banks losing a significant financial commission from various exchange operations, according to official statistics.

Some experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of these offices in reducing the phenomenon of illegal speculation in hard currency.

However, others believe that the results are beginning to emerge, as Tunisia's foreign exchange reserves have risen to around 95 supply days, after hitting a low of 73 during in early 2019.

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Turkish Central Bank Surprises with Rate Hike to 46% after Market Turmoil

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Türkiye April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Türkiye April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
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Turkish Central Bank Surprises with Rate Hike to 46% after Market Turmoil

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Türkiye April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Türkiye April 19, 2015. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

The Turkish central bank hiked its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 46% on Thursday, in a surprise move that reversed an easing cycle and slightly boosted the lira, following market volatility in the wake of last month's arrest of Istanbul's mayor.

The bank also lifted its overnight lending rate again, to 49% from 46%, after having already raised it last month in an unscheduled decision following the arrest.

In addition, the overnight borrowing rate was lifted to 44.5% from 41%, underlining the hawkish reversal in monetary policy.

"Monthly core goods inflation is expected to rise slightly in April due to recent developments in financial markets," the central bank's policy committee said in releasing the decision, Reuters reported

Leading indicators suggest domestic demand is above projections, "suggesting a lower disinflationary impact," it said.

"Inflation expectations and pricing behaviour continue to pose risks to the disinflation process," the bank said, adding it would tighten further "in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen."

The central bank had begun easing in December, when the rate was 50%, after an aggressive tightening effort since mid-2023 to bring down years of soaring prices and a series of currency crashes.

In a Reuters poll, ten of 13 respondents forecast the bank would maintain its one-week repo rate while three predicted a hike of up to 350 basis points. Most respondents expected the overnight lending rate would be held at 46%.

The lira strengthened slightly right after the decision and traded at 38.10 to the US dollar, while the benchmark stock index BIST 100 and banking index pared back some of its gains during the day.

Last month, the currency briefly hit a record low of 42 and stocks and bonds plunged after the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, pushing economic authorities to take several measures to ease the market fallout.

Economists expect the roughly 3% weakening of the lira to lift April and May inflation readings. Annual inflation had slowed to 38.1% in March, and was 2.46% month-on-month, lower than forecast.

Imamoglu - President Erdogan's chief rival - is now jailed pending trial in legal moves that sparked the biggest protests in more than a decade and broad criticism of a politicised judiciary and eroding rule of law, claims the government denies.

The lira steadied near 38 to the dollar and Turkish assets recovered somewhat after the central bank sold some $50 billion since Imamoglu's arrest to stabilise the situation, and it bought some 120 billion lira ($3.15 billion) worth of bonds.

The central bank also raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points to 46% and paused funding through one-week repo auctions, effectively tightening funding conditions by 400 basis points.

On Thursday the bank said it will closely monitor liquidity conditions and added: "In response to the recent developments in financial markets, additional measures to support the monetary transmission mechanism were quickly put in place."

The rate decision came amid global market turmoil caused by what has become an all-out trade war between the United States and China, with both sides ratcheting up their import tariffs.