IMF Expects Egypt Economy to Grow 5.9% in Year to End of June

The reflection of Egyptians walking is seen in a shop window at the Khan al-Khalili market in Cairo on May 20, 2016. (AFP)
The reflection of Egyptians walking is seen in a shop window at the Khan al-Khalili market in Cairo on May 20, 2016. (AFP)
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IMF Expects Egypt Economy to Grow 5.9% in Year to End of June

The reflection of Egyptians walking is seen in a shop window at the Khan al-Khalili market in Cairo on May 20, 2016. (AFP)
The reflection of Egyptians walking is seen in a shop window at the Khan al-Khalili market in Cairo on May 20, 2016. (AFP)

Egypt’s economy is expected to grow 5.9% in the year ending in June, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday — unchanged from its April forecast but below the government’s target of 6% to 7%.

Analysts have hailed Egypt for tough economic reforms tied to a three-year, $12 billion loan program with the IMF agreed in late 2016, which has been disbursed in full.

The reforms included devaluing the currency by about half, cutting energy subsidies and introducing a value-added tax. Those changes have left many of Egypt’s nearly 100 million citizens struggling to make ends meet.

In its World Economic Outlook, the Fund brought down its 2019/2020 forecast for consumer price inflation to 10% from 12.3% six months ago.

Egypt said its economy grew by 5.6% in the 2018/19 year, slightly above the IMF’s estimate of 5.5%, unchanged from April.

The World Bank forecast on Thursday that Egypt’s economy would grow by 5.8% this fiscal year and estimated it grew 5.6% in 2018/2019, matching the government’s figure.

The IMF forecast Egypt’s current account deficit would widen to 2.8% of GDP this fiscal year from its 1.7% estimate in April. It also widened its estimate for last year’s current account deficit to 3.1% from 2.4%.

The IMF improved its expectations for unemployment in Egypt, predicting it would fall to 7.9% this fiscal year, down from its estimate of 8.3% six months ago. It also estimated unemployment in 2018/19 at 8.6%, below its April expectation of 9.6%.

“A loss of reform momentum would reduce growth and potential output and put pressure on unemployment, given the fast-increasing labor force,” the IMF said in its final review of Egypt’s reform program, written in July and released this month.

The IMF said last year that Egypt will have a working age population of 80 million by 2028.



Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

 A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."