Lebanon's Economic Fallout Worsens

A gas station closes during a protest against tight supply of dollars in Beirut, Lebanon September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo
A gas station closes during a protest against tight supply of dollars in Beirut, Lebanon September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo
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Lebanon's Economic Fallout Worsens

A gas station closes during a protest against tight supply of dollars in Beirut, Lebanon September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo
A gas station closes during a protest against tight supply of dollars in Beirut, Lebanon September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

At the beat of a dollar liquidity crunch, Lebanon’s worsened economic crisis inflicted new fallouts on several sectors, with further depressions seen in the educational sector and in bakeries and gas stations.

Schools and teachers slammed on Monday last week’s announcement by Education Minister Tarek Al-Majzoub, who proposed canceling the 2020 round of high school exams in all branches and the promotions of all students are promoted to the higher grade according to regulations.

Schools fear the decision would push parents to abstain from paying tuition and therefore, negatively impact their budgets and salaries.

“The Minister’s decision was a surprise and the biggest surprise is the fact that students would automatically be promoted to higher grades,” Head of Teachers Union Rodolphe Abboud said Monday.

He explained that Majzoub’s announcement presented a solution for students and parents. “However, the problem remains unsolved for teachers and schools, particularly following reports about the displacement of a large number of students from private to public schools or between private schools,” Abboud said.

On a different note, Lebanon’s bread distributors returned to the street on Monday and held a sit-in in front of the Economy Ministry.

There are 2,400 bread distributors in Lebanon. They are currently receiving a bundle of bread at LL1,500 from bakeries instead of LL1,200, a rise that would prevent them from making any profits.

Economy Minister Raoul Nehmeh had refused that the price of a bundle of bread increase in shops, saying the Central Bank subsidized wheat.

Also, gas station owners announced that their future was jeopardized by the current crisis, while Jean Abboud, head of the syndicate of travel agencies owners, said only 10 percent of the sector was currently operating.

All those crises would directly affect tens of thousands of employees in the private sector, including bank employees, particularly after Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said the number of banks in Lebanon will have to be cut in half.

On Monday, a number of protesters and activists rallied outside the Palace of Justice in Beirut and the Social Affairs Ministry to protest against the stifling economic situation and the simmering daily living conditions, pressing for their livelihood rights.



S&P Expects Saudi Issuances to Continue Domestically, Internationally Driven by Vision 2030

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
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S&P Expects Saudi Issuances to Continue Domestically, Internationally Driven by Vision 2030

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)

S&P Global Ratings anticipates that Saudi issuers will continue to tap local and international capital markets to finance projects under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. The agency expects debt levels to remain manageable, with private sector debt-to-GDP ratios staying below 100% over the next 12 to 24 months.

According to S&P’s report, “Saudi Capital Market Overview: Rising Issuance Levels Are Just the Start”, Saudi companies have dominated issuance activity in recent years. Over the past five years, Saudi entities, including government-related entities, have accounted for roughly two-thirds of non-governmental US dollar-denominated issuances. However, the report predicted that banks will play an increasingly significant role in the future.

The report noted that Saudi issuers have raised over $130 billion in US dollar-denominated issuances over the last five years. This adds to $144 billion raised domestically in Saudi riyals during the same period, driven by Vision 2030 initiatives.

While the government accounts for about 60% of these issuances, the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 has created expansive opportunities in the non-oil economy and banking system, paving the way for future growth, the report underlined.

S&P highlighted the development of Saudi Arabia’s mortgage-backed securities market as a key factor to watch over the next two years. As of the end of September 2024, Saudi banks held more than $175 billion in mortgage financing, most of which carried fixed interest rates but were funded through short-term resources, primarily local deposits.

With declining interest rates, some of these mortgages could re-enter circulation, enabling banks to sell them in the secondary market without incurring losses. This would allow banks to offload mortgage financing from their balance sheets, provided legal challenges surrounding the mortgage-backed securities issuance are resolved or mitigated sufficiently to attract local and international investor interest.

According to the report, developing the mortgage-backed securities market could significantly enhance banks’ financial capacity, enabling them to better support the implementation of Vision 2030. This could occur through existing infrastructure, such as the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company, or via direct issuances in the capital markets.