Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
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Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi received an unprecedented warm welcome when he landed in the Jordanian capital Amman on Tuesday. King Abdullah II swept aside protocols and personally received the premier at the airport.

The Iraqi PM was in Jordan for a tripartite summit that included King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

Kadhimi, who had just returned from a successful visit to the United States, was seeking to employ Iraq’s financial and human resources to boost the concept of partnership and veer away from pervious government’s reliance on bilateral cooperation with Iran and Turkey, said sources close to the premier. Such a dependence has kept Iraq away from its Arab fold: Iraq’s trade balance with Turkey is estimated at 10 to 12 billion dollars annually and 8 to ten billion dollars with Iran, while the balance is at a meager 2 billion with Saudi Arabia and hardly any better with Egypt and Jordan.

The signs of a new chapter of Iraqi relations with its Arab neighbors first emerged with the formation of the Iraqi-Saudi coordination council during the term of former Iraqi PM Haidar al-Abadi. These relations were boosted with his successor, Adel Abdul Mahdi, before he encountered numerous challenges, notably massive popular protests that led to his resignation in late 2019. Abdul Mahdi had held summits with King Abdullah and Sisi in each of Cairo and Amman, but circumstances worked against him and the meetings never yielded any significant results.

Kadhimi will now try to pick up from where his successors left off. He has just returned with great American political and economic support and sought to propose the project of a “new Middle East”. This project will follow European example, whereby capital and technology would flow more freely.

Member of the Iraqi parliamentary foreign relations committee, Dr. Dhafer al-Ani said the tripartite cooperation between Baghdad, Amman and Cairo was not born yesterday, but dates back to several years.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Iraq needs the Arab fold, which would empower it in confronting regional problems from Iran and Turkey.” He added that no outstanding years-long unresolved issues exist between Iraq, Jordan and Egypt, which will facilitate the process of bolstering their relations.

In fact, he continued, Jordan and Egypt are both looking forward to striking promising economic and oil deals with Iraq. Iraq has always provided them with their oil needs. Cairo and Amman, in turn, view Baghdad as an important strategic partner in the region.

The tripartite summit may yield political and economic results if Iraq were to open up economically, which will in turn open up political opportunities and boost its Arab standing.

Iraqi MP Aras Habib Karim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq needs to adopt a policy of regional and international openness that prioritizes its national interest, especially when it comes to economic, energy and investment affairs.



Three Conditions for Israeli War on Lebanon, Last One is Political

Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
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Three Conditions for Israeli War on Lebanon, Last One is Political

Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)
Lebanese army soldiers inspect the wreckage of a car after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Bourj el-Moulouk, approximately 18 kilometers from the city of Nabatieh, last week (AFP)

Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ended his recent visit to Washington, he announced to the US Congress that his government aims to neutralize the security threats posed by the Lebanon-based Hezbollah on Israel’s northern front.

The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation reported that the Israeli army has informed the political leadership that preparations for a large-scale ground maneuver are complete, and a strong aerial operation in Lebanon is planned before the maneuver.

Opinions differ on the scope and timing of this maneuver, but there is agreement that Tel Aviv is pressing forward with plans for a major attack on Lebanon unless Hezbollah withdraws from south of the Litani River.

Military expert Brig. Gen. Khalil Helou commented that “three new military units have moved to the northern front and are on alert for a significant military operation.”

He explained that these units need training to work together and coordinate on the front lines.

“When the Israeli army announces a maneuver, it might just be an exercise, but it could also be a prelude to a surprise military attack, leading to a major ground operation,” added Helou.

Helou reminded that “since the end of the 2006 war, Israel has been preparing for a new and extended conflict with Hezbollah, which requires three main components: logistical, military, and political readiness.”

“Our biggest concern is that Israel has achieved political readiness following Netanyahu’s visit to Washington,” cautioned Helou.

Before announcing the maneuver, the commander of the northern front visited the Lebanon border, emphasizing that the airstrike on Yemen’s Hodeidah port was a clear message to Iran and Hezbollah about the reach of the Israeli Air Force.

Helou noted that Israel “is determined to push Hezbollah away from the northern border at any cost, including military action, as Netanyahu outlined in his speech to the US Congress.”

He highlighted that “while ground units are preparing, the Israeli Air Force plays a crucial role in the conflict.”

This announcement follows a large-scale exercise conducted by the Israeli army on May 28, which tested the readiness of its forces for a full-scale war on the northern front.

The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation stated that the exercise was carried out unexpectedly to enhance the army's preparedness for various scenarios with Lebanon.

Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, explained that the new maneuver is part of “pressure on Lebanon, especially as it coincides with Netanyahu’s visit to the US and meetings with top American officials from both parties.”

Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Tel Aviv is determined to remove the threat on the northern front, whether through diplomatic efforts or military action, while Hezbollah insists on maintaining the situation as it was before the October 6, 2023, Al-Aqsa Flood operation.”

“It appears that the Israeli army is moving towards implementing Netanyahu’s threats, despite reported disagreements between him and the military leadership,” said Nader.

Despite efforts by the US and other major powers to prevent new conflicts, particularly with Lebanon, Nader stressed that Israel “is determined to change the rules of engagement, especially after Hezbollah's recent unveiling of significant aerial capabilities that threaten Israel’s security, though these capabilities are not comparable to Tel Aviv’s extensive military assets.”