Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi's one-day visit to Turkey is likely to spark a long debate within Iraqi circles, whether on the political level or over social media.
Iraqi-Turkish relations have been marred with ambiguity for decades for various reasons. Major contentious concerns include the water issue that dates back to the 1930s and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party since the mid-1980s.
The Turkish-Iraqi trade balance, which annually amounts to about $12 billion, surpasses the Iraqi trade balance with Iran. However, Turkey wants to ignore complex issues such as water and terrorism to focus on one aspect of the relationship with Baghdad: Increasing the volume of trade exchange to $17 billion.
Iran, for its part, is working at the same pace, seeking to compete with Turkey economically inside Iraq at a time when Ankara cannot compete with Tehran politically.
However, both Iran and Turkey are seeing Kadhimi's move in other directions, by strengthening his relations with the Arab region, which could leave negative effects on their status in the Iraqi market.
The relationship that has developed between Iraq and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, especially after the signing of a series of agreements and MOUs, as well as the opening of the Arar border crossing, would open new horizons for Iraq and would ease the pressure exerted by its two main neighbors.
This new reality has made Iran and Turkey deal with Iraq from a different angle. Despite the presence of Iranian-backed factions in the country, Tehran is keen to deal with Kadhimi’s government away from those.
Turkey, for its part, is trying to reassure Iraq about the water issue, but does not show flexibility towards the PKK.
In this context, Professor of Media at the Iraqi University, Dr. Fadel Al-Badrani, said that Kadhimi’s visit discussed eight main topics related to security, economy, investment, energy, water, railways, visas, and frozen funds.
But he added that three main obstacles still control the course of Baghdad’s relations with Ankara: security, water and economy.
He explained that the visit came as both countries are facing severe economic crises, the decline of their local currencies, as well as the problem of the PKK, which embarrasses Baghdad and harms Ankara.
Badrani added: “Baghdad is also concerned about water shares that are controlled by Turkey."
"It tries to resolve the matter diplomatically and to search for trade exchange opportunities that alleviate the financial crisis.”
