IMF Chief Warns of 'Lost Generation' if Low-Income Countries Don't Get More Help

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
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IMF Chief Warns of 'Lost Generation' if Low-Income Countries Don't Get More Help

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP

The head of the IMF on Friday urged advanced economies to provide more resources to low-income countries, warning of an emerging "Great Divergence" in global growth that could risk stability and trigger social unrest for years to come.

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest.

To avert bigger problems, she said rich countries and international institutions should chip in more. She also urged heavily indebted countries to seek debt restructuring sooner rather than later, and to boost conditions for growth, Reuters reported.

"Last year the main focus was on the 'Great Lockdown'. This year we face the risk of 'Great Divergence'," Georgieva told reporters during a videoconference.

"We estimate that developing countries that have been for decades converging in income levels will be in a very tough place this time around."

Setbacks for living standards in developing countries would make it much more difficult to achieve stability and security for the rest of the world, she said.

"What is the risk? Social unrest. You can call it a lost decade. It may be a lost generation," she said.

Georgieva said advanced economies had spent about 24 per cent of GDP on average on support measures during the pandemic, compared to 6 per cent in emerging markets and 2 per cent in low-income countries.

A former top World Bank executive, Georgieva said vaccination efforts were uneven, with poor countries facing "tremendous difficulties" even as official development funds were going down.

Only one country in Africa - Morocco - had begun vaccinating its citizens, she said, citing grave concerns about increased mortality in many African countries.

"We must do everything in our power to reverse this dangerous divergence," she said, noting developing countries could also miss out on a major shift underway in rich countries to more digital and green economies.

She said accelerating vaccinations could add $9 trillion to the global economy by 2025, with 60 per cent of benefits going to developing countries.

Georgieva said she was still working with IMF shareholders to win support for a new allocation of the IMF's own currency, or Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which could provide resources to poorer countries.

Former US President Donald Trump had blocked such a move, akin to a central bank printing money. Support from the US, the IMF's dominant shareholder, is more likely under President Joe Biden whose administration is open to a new allocation, according to sources familiar with their views. The Biden administration has not addressed the issue publicly.

Georgieva said an SDR allocation of $250 billion in 2009 had helped stabilize the global economy during the global financial crisis, and the current situation was more grave.

She said the IMF was completing a periodic review of long-term liquidity needs that might justify a new SDR allocation, but gave no further details.

Group of Seven finance officials will discuss a possible new SDR allocation when they meet on Feb 12, the sources said.



Oil Slips as Gaza Talks Ease Supply Worries; Hurricane Beryl in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Gaza Talks Ease Supply Worries; Hurricane Beryl in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

Oil prices slid on Monday after rising for four weeks, as the prospect of a ceasefire deal in Gaza eased tensions in the Middle East, while investors assessed potential disruption to US energy supplies from Hurricane Beryl.
Brent crude futures were down 49 cents, or 0.57%, at $86.05 a barrel, as at 0843 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $82.53 a barrel, down 63 cents, or 0.76%, Reuters said.
Talks over a US ceasefire plan aimed at ending the nine-month-old war in Gaza are under way and being mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
"If anything concrete comes from the ceasefire talks, it will take some of geopolitical bids out of the market for now," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore based in Sydney.
The ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City closed on Sunday to prepare for Hurricane Beryl, which is expected to make a landfall in the middle of the Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi later on Monday.
"Weekly settlement prices suggest that investors liked what they saw in spite of the pre-weekend profit-taking in oil, which continues this morning on the prospect of the resumption of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas and the closure of Texan ports", said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
Port closures could bring a temporary halt to crude and liquefied natural gas exports, oil shipments to refineries and motor fuel deliveries from those plants.
"While this puts some offshore oil and gas production at risk, the concern when the storm makes landfall is the potential impact it could have on refinery infrastructure," ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.
WTI gained 2.1% last week after data from the Energy Information Administration showed stockpiles for crude and refined products fell in the week ended June 28.
IG's Sycamore said there is also a good chance of the US. data showing another large weekly draw in US oil inventories amid peak driving season.
Investors were also watching for any impact from elections in the UK, France and Iran last week on geopolitics and energy policies.