GCC Projects Market Report Reveals Five-Year Peak in Awarding Rate

Project awards in Gulf countries are likely to double with signs of détente in the Corona pandemic (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Project awards in Gulf countries are likely to double with signs of détente in the Corona pandemic (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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GCC Projects Market Report Reveals Five-Year Peak in Awarding Rate

Project awards in Gulf countries are likely to double with signs of détente in the Corona pandemic (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Project awards in Gulf countries are likely to double with signs of détente in the Corona pandemic (Asharq Al-Awsat)

New data revealed a remarkable recovery in the projects market of Gulf Cooperation Council states during Q1 2021. This was traced back to the value input of awarded projects on a quarterly basis doubling.

“After witnessing declines over the last several quarters, the GCC project market showed healthy recovery during Q1-2021 with value of projects awarded more than doubling q-o-q to $ 26.3 Billion,” said a report by Kamco Invest.

“This was mainly led by pending project awards from last year, in addition to efforts by governments in the region to vaccinate the bulk of the population and limit the spread of the Covid-19 that affected economic activity across the globe,” it added.

Citing Bloomberg, Kamco said that 26.5 million doses have been administered with at least the first dose of the vaccine in the GCC out of a total population of 54 million residents.”

According to Bloomberg estimates, median Brent crude oil forecast is expected to remain comfortably above the $60 per barrel mark over the next five years.

The report coincides with most Gulf countries starting to practically ease or completely lift some of the restrictions instated to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Moreover, it revealed that the value of projects planned and under execution in the GCC has remained around the $ 1.7 Trillion mark since 2017.

However, at the country level, the UAE has seen its share decline consistently over the years whereas Saudi Arabia has seen an increasing share especially post the announcement of big-ticket projects.

The two markets have accounted for more than 84% of the total market over the last two years.

Total value of project planned and under execution stood at $86.1 Billion at the end of 2015 that increased to $ 91.6 Billion at the start of May 2021.

In terms of quarterly data on project awards, the GCC region witnessed the normal seasonal spike during Q1-2021 with project awards worth $26.3 Billion, more than double the contract awards during Q4-2020 that stood at $12.8 Billion.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.