Fears of 'Shocking Scenarios' In Iraq’s October Elections

 A video meeting between Iraqi PM and the President of the European Council on Tuesday (AP).
A video meeting between Iraqi PM and the President of the European Council on Tuesday (AP).
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Fears of 'Shocking Scenarios' In Iraq’s October Elections

 A video meeting between Iraqi PM and the President of the European Council on Tuesday (AP).
A video meeting between Iraqi PM and the President of the European Council on Tuesday (AP).

In the wake of the suicide bombing that targeted Sadr City, east of Baghdad, on the eve of Eid al-Adha, Iraqi public opinion saw such incidents as “political messages,” which could “recur” until the elections are held in October.

Many agree that the upcoming poll is the most complex among all previous rounds since 2003, as difficult scenarios lie in the horizon, regardless of the winner, amid an intricate equation and an unprecedented political race.

But the main forces insist on holding the elections on time, driven by great enthusiasm to achieve a broad legislative presence, especially among the political wings representing the armed Shiite factions. Those see the upcoming elections as an opportunity to increase their influence in the legislative and executive authorities, as well as to end the mandate of their rival, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi.

Pro-Iranian Shiite leaders are discussing various propositions to deal with Kadhimi, whom they blame for obstructing the project of the Popular Mobilization Forces.

The Iraqi premier is aware that his role is limited on “holding the elections” on the agreed date, but he adopts a political approach that prevents the armed factions from taking over the state and its institutions.

Activists say that boycotting the elections aims to postpone them to another date in safer conditions, in an attempt to prevent the armed groups from seizing legislative seats. However, the decision appears to be nothing more than a message of protest rather than a practical step that would affect the path of the powerful forces.

The activists, who tried months ago to organize themselves for the elections, said that the armed groups intimidated their political representatives through liquidation and kidnapping, which prevented many from engaging freely in the electoral process.

But the turning point for the boycotters was when the leader of the Sadr movement decided to join them, when he stepped out of the race at a crucial moment, and turned the equation towards postponing the elections.

Sadr’s opponents see his boycott of the elections as a painful blow to their plans, and a strike to the equations they have set up months ago, which would not allow for major changes in the balance of power.

The danger of the upcoming elections lies in its results. The loss or victory of the two parties to the conflict will leave the country in front of new and persistent tension.

In the event that the political representatives of the armed factions win, an emerging social frontline will revive the protests, as it is not represented in Parliament. The loss of the armed factions, on the other hand, will increase tension and hamper the minimum level of calm between Shiite actors.



Trump Administration Ends Some USAID Contracts Providing Lifesaving Aid across the Middle East

A USAID flag flutters outside, as the USAID building sits closed to employees after a memo was issued advising agency personnel to work remotely, in Washington, DC, US, February 3, 2025. (Reuters)
A USAID flag flutters outside, as the USAID building sits closed to employees after a memo was issued advising agency personnel to work remotely, in Washington, DC, US, February 3, 2025. (Reuters)
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Trump Administration Ends Some USAID Contracts Providing Lifesaving Aid across the Middle East

A USAID flag flutters outside, as the USAID building sits closed to employees after a memo was issued advising agency personnel to work remotely, in Washington, DC, US, February 3, 2025. (Reuters)
A USAID flag flutters outside, as the USAID building sits closed to employees after a memo was issued advising agency personnel to work remotely, in Washington, DC, US, February 3, 2025. (Reuters)

The Trump administration has notified the World Food Program and other partners that it has terminated some of the last remaining lifesaving humanitarian programs across the Middle East, a US official and a UN official told The Associated Press on Monday.

The projects were being canceled “for the convenience of the US Government” at the direction of Jeremy Lewin, a top lieutenant at Trump adviser Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency whom the Trump administration appointed to oversee and finish dismantling the US Agency for International Development, according to letters sent to USAID partners and viewed by the AP.

About 60 letters canceling contracts were sent over the past week, including for major projects with the World Food Program, the world’s largest provider of food aid, a USAID official said. An official with the United Nations in the Middle East said the World Food Program received termination letters for US-funded programs in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.

Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Some of the last remaining US funding for key programs in Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan and the southern African nation of Zimbabwe also was affected, including for those providing food, water, medical care and shelter for people displaced by war, the USAID official said.

The UN official said the groups that would be hit hardest include Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon. Also affected are programs supporting vulnerable Lebanese people and providing irrigation systems inside Syria, a country emerging from a brutal civil war and struggling with poverty and hunger.

In Yemen, another war-divided country that is facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, the terminated aid apparently includes food that has already arrived in distribution centers, the UN official said.

Aid officials were just learning of many of the cuts Monday and said they were struggling to understand their scope.

Another of the notices, sent Friday, abruptly pulled US funding for a program with strong support in Congress that had sent young Afghan women overseas for schooling amid Taliban prohibitions on women’s education, said an administrator for that project, which is run by Texas A&M University.

The young women would now face return to Afghanistan, where their lives would be in danger, according to that administrator, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The Trump administration had pledged to spare those most urgent, lifesaving programs in its cutting of aid and development programs through the State Department and USAID.

The Republican administration already has canceled thousands of USAID contracts as it dismantles USAID, which it accuses of wastefulness and of advancing liberal causes.

The newly terminated contracts were among about 900 surviving programs that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had notified Congress he intended to preserve, the USAID official said.

There was no immediate comment from the State Department.