Iraq Officials Mull Rotation Among Sects of Top Positions

A man votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections in Baghdad. (AFP)
A man votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections in Baghdad. (AFP)
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Iraq Officials Mull Rotation Among Sects of Top Positions

A man votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections in Baghdad. (AFP)
A man votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections in Baghdad. (AFP)

The withdrawal from upcoming elections by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the largest parliamentary bloc, continues to weigh heavily throughout Iraq, especially among other Shiite forces.

The capital Baghdad is divided between the Sunni Karkh district and the Shiite al-Rusafa. This divide was the most intense during the past eight years, first with the civil war when Shiites were killed in Sunni neighborhoods and Sunnis in Shiite neighborhoods.

The divisions were further widened during four rounds of elections that were held since 2005. These elections have produced a form of governance that has since proven to be a failure as Iraq plunges deeper in mismanagement at the hands of corrupt officials.

Moreover, the post-Saddam period that began in 2003 resulted in a sectarian political understanding that stipulates that the top positions of president, prime minister and parliament speaker should be divided according to sectarian lines.

As it stands, the prime minister is always a Shiite, the president a Kurd and parliament speaker a Sunni. However, parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi stirred debate recently by declaring: “Iraq is Arab and so the position of president should go to the Sunni Arabs.” He made it a point to say Arab because the Kurds too adhere to Sunni Islam.

His statement did not sit well with the Kurds, who boast their own influential blocs and are also divided among themselves over which Kurdish party should hold the position of president.

According to an understanding between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), headed by Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the president of the Kurdish Region should hail from Barzani’s party, while the Iraqi president must be a member of the PUK.

Since 2003, Kurdish figures – Jalal Talbani, Fuad Masoum and Barham Salih – have served as president.

Disputes have even emerged from the PUK itself over the nomination of the next president.

On the Shiite scene, political forces have grown paranoid of a conspiracy being plotted to thwart the appointment of a Shiite to the position of premier. The constitution does not explicitly state that the prime minister should be a Shiite, Sunni or Kurd.

The signs of a Kurdish-Sadrist alliance may create further political confusion in the country. The alliance, should it come to light, would be the first since 2003.

Shortly before Sadr withdrew from the elections, he had paid a visit to Erbil to meet with KDP officials and Barzani. Observers at the time speculated that they would soon announce an alliance between the largest Shiite and Kurdish forces that would create a major shift in the political scene.

Sadr’s surprise withdrawal, however, has upended the scene and forced the KDP to rethink its future alliances.

Had the two sides forged an alliance, the division of the “sovereign positions” of president, prime minister and speaker, would have changed. The position of premier would be held by Sadr, Barzani would control the presidency instead of the PUK, and Sunni Arabs would retain the position of speaker.

The Sunni and Kurdish parties now have to wait with bated breath for Sadr to take a final decision on whether he will run in the elections or not, with all forces setting their sights on the position of prime minister.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."