A Massacre in Kabul

The deadly “incident” that killed seven kids is a reminder of the high price of war.

In this Aug. 30, 2021, photo provided by the US Air Force, a Air Force aircrew, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, prepares to receive soldiers, assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division, to board a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft in support of the final noncombatant evacuation operation missions at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul Afghanistan. (Senior Airman Taylor Crul/US Air Force via AP)
In this Aug. 30, 2021, photo provided by the US Air Force, a Air Force aircrew, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, prepares to receive soldiers, assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division, to board a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft in support of the final noncombatant evacuation operation missions at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul Afghanistan. (Senior Airman Taylor Crul/US Air Force via AP)
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A Massacre in Kabul

In this Aug. 30, 2021, photo provided by the US Air Force, a Air Force aircrew, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, prepares to receive soldiers, assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division, to board a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft in support of the final noncombatant evacuation operation missions at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul Afghanistan. (Senior Airman Taylor Crul/US Air Force via AP)
In this Aug. 30, 2021, photo provided by the US Air Force, a Air Force aircrew, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, prepares to receive soldiers, assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division, to board a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft in support of the final noncombatant evacuation operation missions at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul Afghanistan. (Senior Airman Taylor Crul/US Air Force via AP)

Zemarai Ahmadi, 40, and his brother-in-law, Naser Nejrabi, 25, fit the perfect profile of Afghans at risk for their prominent role in reconstruction of their country in the past two decades. Zemarai worked for a California-based nutrition charity while Nasser served with the US forces in Herat before enrolling in the Afghan National Army. Their close relative Ahmad Nasser also fit the bill as a former interpreter for US forces.

But, even though they had applied for Special Immigration Visas, they were not to be among the tens of thousands of at-risk Afghans who were evacuated out of Afghanistan in the last few weeks. Instead, they met their death last Thursday in a drone strike that killed them along with seven related children, two of whom were under two years old. In something of a sick irony, Afghans deemed at-risk from Taliban due to their associations with US ended up being killed in an airstrike — by the United States. The family were collateral damage in a strike aimed at the terror group ISIS-K.

On August 14, just a few weeks before the attack, Ahmad Naser’s American supervisor, Timothy Williams, had wrote in support of his SIV application, testifying that he was in “grave danger” due to his “commitment to American and NATO forces” and that he did not pose “any threat to the safety or security of the United States and its citizens.” Little did he know that it was the forces of the United States that posted a threat to Nasser’s lives and that of his family.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been primarily discussed as a tragic story of betrayal of allies left behind. This rings true for millions of Afghans, especially Afghan women, who indeed feel betrayed. Within days of Taliban’s rise to power, their hard-won achievements of the last two decades, in fields such as education, entertainment and sports are already threatened. But this should not let us lose sight of the very real costs of US’s ongoing military operations in Afghanistan.

The fact that a strike meant to target a terror group has instead killed seven children and three US-linked adults has attracted international headlines. The fact that it happened in the capital city of Kabul and following a brutal ISIS-K strike that killed 13 American soldiers and dozens of Afghan civilians has focused more attention on it.

But those who’ve followed the war in Afghanistan know that this is nothing new. Of the more than 14,000 drone strikes that the United States has conducted during its 20-years-long War on Terror, more than 13,000 took place in Afghanistan. While they’ve successfully killed thousands of militants, they’ve also killed hundreds of civilians, including anything between 66 to 184 children.

Speaking on the Thursday incident, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the strike targeted “what we believed to be a very real, a very specific and a very imminent threat.”

“Make no mistake,” he added.” no military on the face of the Earth works harder to avoid civilian casualties than the United States’ military, and nobody wants to see innocent life taken.”

True as this may be, drone strikes, their dubious legality and dozens of civilians and children they’ve killed will haunt the decision-makers and practitioners of the War on Terror era in the United States and beyond. How many people will flock to Taliban and other anti-Western forces every time a drone strike massacres an innocent family?

I am not, and will never be, a pacifist. The United States, along with the international community, was right to take the fight to Taliban after they had harbored perpetrators of the brutal September 11 attacks. It was right to target ISIS and help dismantle it. The anti-Taliban resistance in the Panjshir valley, led by Ahmad Massoud and Afghanistan’s acting president, Amrullah Saleh, is right to fight. They deserve international support.

But as the United States goes through an intensive reevaluation of its foreign policy and warfare priorities, it should ask deep questions about its practice of drone strikes and all the innocent lives it has taken. If all the focus is on hurting the capacities of terror groups, without changing the conditions such as state failure that allows them to breed, terrorism will never be “defeated.”

A war fought from skies is an unfortunately apt allegory for how uncommitted the United States has been to Afghan reconstruction; a disastrous course that started when the Bush administration decided that it wanted to shift its focus on Iraq. As hyper-partisan debates in DC are to inevitably fill the air in the coming months, balance and honest reappraisal of the last 20 years will be key. In this, one has to never forget the face of real victims of war; those like Sumaya and Aya, two Afghan girls short of two years, who were killed last week in one of the last operations of the longest American war in history.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.