UN Climate Conference Heads Tentatively Towards a Deal

UN climate talks in Scotland appeared to be tentatively heading for a deal on Saturday that conference host Britain said would keep alive a goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Reuters)
UN climate talks in Scotland appeared to be tentatively heading for a deal on Saturday that conference host Britain said would keep alive a goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Reuters)
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UN Climate Conference Heads Tentatively Towards a Deal

UN climate talks in Scotland appeared to be tentatively heading for a deal on Saturday that conference host Britain said would keep alive a goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Reuters)
UN climate talks in Scotland appeared to be tentatively heading for a deal on Saturday that conference host Britain said would keep alive a goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Reuters)

UN climate talks in Scotland appeared to be tentatively heading for a deal on Saturday that conference host Britain said would keep alive a goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius to maintain a realistic chance of avoiding catastrophe.

Alok Sharma, the conference chairman, urged the almost 200 national delegations present in Glasgow to accept a deal that seeks to balance the demands of climate-vulnerable nations, big industrial powers, and those whose consumption or exports of fossil fuels are vital to their economic development.

"Please don't ask yourself what more you can seek but ask instead what is enough," he told them, in the closing hours of a two-week conference that has already overrun by a day. "Is this package balanced? Does it provide enough for all of us?"

"Most importantly - please ask yourselves whether ultimately these texts deliver for all our people and our planet."

The final agreement will require the unanimous consent of the countries present, ranging from coal- and gas-fuelled superpowers to oil producers and Pacific islands being swallowed by the rise in sea levels.

The meeting's overarching aim is to keep within reach the 2015 Paris Agreement's target to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

US climate envoy John Kerry said the conference was poised to make a "remarkable step".

A draft deal circulated early on Saturday in effect acknowledged that existing commitments to cut emissions of planet-heating greenhouse gases are nowhere near enough, and asked nations to set tougher climate pledges next year, rather than every five years, as they are currently required to do.

In a public check-in round with key delegations, there was encouragement for Sharma from China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal, but also a country yet to develop its full economic potential.

"We noted that there are still differences on some issues and currently this text is by no means perfect, but we have no intention to open the text again," Chinese negotiator Zhao Yingmin told the conference hall.

‘Don’t kill this moment'

The West African state of Guinea, which had pressed hard on behalf of the G77 group of developing countries for greater commitments from rich countries to compensate them for "loss and damage" from unpredictable climate disasters, also indicated that the group would accept what had been achieved.

However, India, whose energy needs are heavily dependent on its own cheap and plentiful coal, signaled unhappiness.

"I am afraid ... the consensus remained elusive," Environment and Climate Minister Bhupender Yadav told the forum, without spelling out whether or not India would block a vote on the package.

EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans, speaking after Yadav, asked if the marathon conference was at risk of stumbling just before the finish line and urged fellow delegates:

"Don't kill this moment by asking for more texts, different texts, deleting this, deleting that."

Scientists say that to go beyond a rise of 1.5C would unleash extreme sea level rise and catastrophes including crippling droughts, monstrous storms and wildfires far worse than those the world is already suffering.

But national pledges made so far to cut greenhouse emissions - mostly carbon dioxide from burning coal, oil and gas - would only cap the average global temperature rise at 2.4 Celsius.

However, Saturday's draft, published by the United Nations, called for efforts to reduce the huge subsidies that governments around the world give to the oil, coal and gas that power factories and heat homes.

Previous UN climate conferences have failed to single out fossil fuels for their harm to the climate.

Britain tried to unblock the issue of climate finance, one of the thorniest, by proposing mechanisms to make sure the poorest nations finally get more of the financial help they have been promised.

Developing countries argue that rich nations, whose historical emissions are largely responsible for heating up the planet, must pay more to help them adapt to its consequences as well as reducing their carbon footprints.

More money?
The draft urged rich countries to double finance for climate adaptation by 2025 from 2019 levels, offering funding that has been a key demand of small island nations at the conference.

Adaptation funds primarily go to the very poorest countries and currently take up only a small fraction of climate funding.

Britain also said a UN committee should report next year on progress towards delivering the $100 billion per year in overall annual climate funding that rich nations had promised by 2020 but failed to deliver. And it said governments should meet in 2022, 2024 and 2026 to discuss climate finance.

Even $100 billion a year is far short of poorer countries' actual needs, which could hit $300 billion by 2030 in adaptation costs alone, according to the United Nations, in addition to economic losses from crop failure or climate-related disasters.

Vulnerable nations have argued for decades that rich countries owe them compensation for the "loss and damage" from climate events that cannot be avoided.

But wealthy countries fear being found liable for such disasters and opening the door to bottomless payments.

As a result, no UN climate conference has yet yielded any funding under this heading for the countries most affected - and Saturday's Glasgow draft also made no firm commitment.

Negotiators were, however, closing in on a deal to settle rules for carbon markets - mechanisms that put a price on emissions to allow countries or companies to buy and sell "permits to pollute", or credits for absorbing emissions.



French Vote Gives Leftists Most Seats over Far-Right, but Leaves Hung Parliament and Deadlock

Fireworks go off as people gather in front of "Le triomphe de la Republique" statue during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
Fireworks go off as people gather in front of "Le triomphe de la Republique" statue during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
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French Vote Gives Leftists Most Seats over Far-Right, but Leaves Hung Parliament and Deadlock

Fireworks go off as people gather in front of "Le triomphe de la Republique" statue during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
Fireworks go off as people gather in front of "Le triomphe de la Republique" statue during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

A coalition of the French left won the most seats in high-stakes legislative elections Sunday, according to near-final results, beating back a far-right surge but failing to win a majority. The outcome left France facing the stunning prospect of a hung parliament and threatened political paralysis in a pillar of the European Union and Olympic host country.

That could rattle markets and the French economy, the EU’s second-largest, and have far-ranging implications for the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

In calling the election on June 9, after the far-right surged in French voting for the European Parliament, Macron said sending voters back to the ballot boxes would provide "clarification."

On almost every level, that gamble appears to have backfired. Results so far showed France plunged into a political fog, with the three main blocs — a leftist coalition, the far-right National Rally and Macron's centrists — all falling well short of the 289 seats needed to control the 577-seat National Assembly.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal addresses the media after the announcement of the results of the second round of the legislative elections at Hotel Matignon in Paris, France, 07 July 2024. (EPA)

"Our country is facing an unprecedented political situation and is preparing to welcome the world in a few weeks," said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who plans to offer his resignation on Monday.

With the Olympics looming, he said he was ready to stay at his post "as long as duty demands." Macron has three years remaining on his presidential term.

Attal made clearer than ever his disapproval of Macron's shock decision to call the election, saying "I didn't choose this dissolution" of the outgoing National Assembly, where the president's centrist alliance used to be single biggest group, albeit without an absolute majority. Still, it was able to govern for two years, pulling in lawmakers from other camps to fight off efforts to bring it down.

The new legislature appears shorn of such stability. With most ballots counted, the leftist coalition was leading Macron’s centrist alliance, with the far-right in third. That confirms the picture also given by pollsters’ projections.

In Paris’ Stalingrad square, supporters on the left cheered and applauded as projections showing the alliance ahead flashed up on a giant screen. Cries of joy also rang out in Republique plaza in eastern Paris, with people spontaneously hugging strangers and several minutes of nonstop applause after the projections landed.

Marielle Castry, a medical secretary, was on the metro in Paris, when the projections were first announced.

"Everybody had their smartphones and were waiting for the results and then everybody was overjoyed," said the 55-year-old. "I had been stressed out since June 9 and the European elections. ... And now, I feel good. Relieved."

Protesters hold a banner as they march during a demonstration following the announcement of the first results of the second round of France's crunch legislative elections in Nantes, western France on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

A redrawn political map Even before votes were cast, the election redrew France's political map. It galvanized parties on the left to put differences aside and join together in a new alliance, the New Popular Front, behind pledges to roll back many of Macron's headline reforms, embark on a massively costly program of public spending and, in foreign policy, take a far tougher line against Israel because of the war with Hamas.

Macron described the left's coalition as "extreme" and warned that its economic program of many tens of billions of euros in public spending, partly financed by tax hikes for high earners and on wealth, could be ruinous for France, already criticized by EU watchdogs for its debt.

Yet, with the projections and then the near-final results showing the New Popular Front with the most seats, its leaders immediately pushed Macron to give the alliance the first chance to form a government and propose a prime minister to share power with the president.

The most prominent of the leftist coalition’s leaders, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, said it "is ready to govern."

Although the National Rally fell far short of its hopes of securing an absolute majority that would have given France its first far-right government since World War II, the anti-immigration party with historical links to antisemitism and racism was on track to have more seats than ever in the National Assembly.

After the party finished top of the first-round vote last weekend, its rivals worked together to dash its hopes of an outright victory in Sunday’s runoff, by strategically withdrawing candidates from many districts. That left many far-right candidates in head-to-head contests against just one opponent, making it harder for them to win.

Many voters decided that keeping the far-right from power was more important to them than anything else, backing its opponents in the second round, even if they weren’t from the political camp they usually support.

National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, thought to be eyeing what would be her forth run for the French presidency in 2027, said the elections laid the groundwork for "the victory of tomorrow."

"The tide is rising," she said. "It did not rise high enough this time."

"The reality is that our victory is only deferred," she added.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen talks to journalists after partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections, at the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party venue in Paris, France, July 7, 2024. (Reuters)

Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé who’d been hoping to become prime minister, rued that the outcome of the vote "throws France into the arms of the extreme left."

In a statement from his office, Macron indicated that he wouldn’t be rushed into inviting a potential prime minister to form a government. It said he was watching as results come in and would wait for the new National Assembly to take shape before taking "the necessary decisions."

A hung parliament is unknown territory for modern France.

Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France doesn’t have a tradition of lawmakers from rival political camps coming together to form a majority. France is also more centralized than many other European countries, with many more decisions made in Paris.

The president was hoping that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far-right and left and return to mainstream parties closer to the center — where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022.

But rather than rally behind him, millions of voters seized on his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger.

In last weekend’s first round of balloting, voters backed candidates from the National Rally, while the coalition of parties on the left took second and his centrist alliance was a distant third.

The sharp polarization of French politics – especially in this torrid and quick campaign – is sure to complicate any coalition-building effort. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France.