Lebanese President Balks at March Polls amid Economic Meltdown

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun. (AP file photo)
Lebanon's President Michel Aoun. (AP file photo)
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Lebanese President Balks at March Polls amid Economic Meltdown

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun. (AP file photo)
Lebanon's President Michel Aoun. (AP file photo)

Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Friday he would not sign any authorization for legislative elections to take place in March, adding to doubts about when the vote can be held amid economic and political meltdown.

Aoun told the Al Akhbar newspaper the early date for elections, approved by parliament in October, would deprive thousands of voters from reaching the voting age of 21.

Snowy weather in March would also mean voters could face difficulties reaching polling stations through blocked mountain roads, he said.

The planned March 27 election date would give Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government even less time to try to secure an IMF recovery plan.

"I will not agree to legislative elections except on one of two dates, May 8 or May 15," Aoun was quoted as saying by the paper.

Aoun had previously refused to sign a law passed by parliament bringing forward the election to March and sent it back to the legislature, which once again adopted it.

Gebran Bassil, the leader of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and his son-in-law, withdrew with his parliamentary bloc from that parliamentary session in October when the date was approved again.

The FPM this week presented a legal complaint to the constitutional council disputing the date of the election and the proposed election law.

Lebanon's financial crisis, which the World Bank labeled one of the deepest depressions of modern history, has been compounded by political deadlock and a row over the probe into last year's Beirut port blast that killed more than 200 people.

The currency has lost 90% of its value and three-quarters of the population have been propelled into poverty. Shortages of basic goods such as fuel and medicines have made daily life a struggle.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.