The Algeria Summit and Conditions for Syria's Participation

Boys look out the window of a building damaged by an Israeli air strike near Damascus airport, in Damascus, Syria, November 20, 2019. (Reuters)
Boys look out the window of a building damaged by an Israeli air strike near Damascus airport, in Damascus, Syria, November 20, 2019. (Reuters)
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The Algeria Summit and Conditions for Syria's Participation

Boys look out the window of a building damaged by an Israeli air strike near Damascus airport, in Damascus, Syria, November 20, 2019. (Reuters)
Boys look out the window of a building damaged by an Israeli air strike near Damascus airport, in Damascus, Syria, November 20, 2019. (Reuters)

The momentum of Arab normalization of ties with Damascus that had started two months ago has slowed down and collided with several new factors and led to the introduction of new conditions.

Arab countries that have signaled rapprochement with Damascus are now waiting for Damascus to take its own steps related to interior and geopolitical issues before making any further moves towards normalizing ties.

In other words, the door leading towards Syria's return to the Arab League and attending the upcoming group summit in Algeria hinges on various conditions, at least for the time-being.

Two month ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad telephoned Jordan's King Abdullah II; their countries exchanged security, economy and military visits; the United Arab Emirates' foreign minister visited Damascus and met Assad; Assad received telephone calls from Arab leaders after Syria's presidential "elections" and Syria has joined various international organizations, such as Interpol and OAPEC.

Added to the above is Syria falling on the list of the Biden administration's priorities. Washington has limited its interest in Syria to providing humanitarian aid and fighting ISIS and has abandoned Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" policy.

Biden's team had carried out talks with Russia that includes Washington's "clarification" of sanctions and offering "waivers" to them on humanitarian grounds. It has also agreed to Moscow's suggestion to funding "early recovery" projects. Russia, meanwhile, has been pressing Arab countries to normalize relations with Damascus. Algeria has also said that it welcomes Syria at the March 2022 Arab League summit.

This normalization path has stalled and put on hold for various reasons.

First of all, not all major Arab countries were unanimous in supporting Jordan and the others' rapprochement with Damascus. Several Arab capitals even questioned whether Jordan's "step-for-step" approach with Damascus would succeed.

Meanwhile, Syria's return to the Arab League demands several steps, notably technical ones that start with the approval of the Arab ministerial council before the summit is held. Politically, consensus is needed from major Arab countries so that quorum is met at the council.

The recognition of the importance of Syria's return to the Arab fold is there, but Damascus needs to take geopolitical and internal steps that ensure that it is not used as a pawn to further Iran's agenda in the region. It must also dismantle drug smuggling networks and cooperate in the fight against terrorism. It must work on providing the grounds for the safe return of refugees to their homes and make progress on the political level according to United Nations resolution 2254.

These positions have been relayed to Washington, which is torn between the stance on Syria envisioned by the US National Security Council’s coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, and the one shared by Congress. Arab doubts over normalization have strengthened the position of doubters in Washington and have increased demands that the Caesar Act remain in place. Evidence of the American position was shown when the Treasury could not offer enough guarantees to Egypt and Jordan to go ahead with the Arab Gas Pipeline and exempting it from the Caesar Act.

In October, Washington announced it will not normalize ties with Damascus and that a price needed to be extracted from Damascus. The tone has now shifted to Washington discouraging all sides against normalization and against sending wrong messages to Damascus. The US has also held an open session at the UN Security Council on the need to hold war criminals in Syria to account.

The Americans have refused to join Russia in holding political negotiations over Syria. They stressed that lifting sanctions on Damascus was not on the table. So talks between Washington and Moscow are now limited to humanitarian aid and the military deployment in eastern Syria.

The Americans are banking on Russia voting on extending the UN resolution on delivering cross border aid to Syria for another six months. In return, they would be willing to provide funding to early recovering projects and other aid. The concessions are now, however, becoming further tied to coordinating stances with London, Paris, Berlin and Arab capitals.

All of the above in no way signifies a return to the policies of the previous decade. Yes, the Biden administration has abandoned Washington's policy of "state-building" and "regime change", but the signals from Arab and European capitals and Washington say that "closing the chapter of the past comes at a price." Just as the others need to have a reading of the situation in Syria, Damascus needs to have a reading of the situation in its country and the region that will pose a serious test to the "step-for-step"approach.



Winter Rains Pile Misery on War-torn Gaza's Displaced

With many residents of Gaza displaced by the war, often living in cramped tent camps, the coming winter is a cause for concern - AFP
With many residents of Gaza displaced by the war, often living in cramped tent camps, the coming winter is a cause for concern - AFP
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Winter Rains Pile Misery on War-torn Gaza's Displaced

With many residents of Gaza displaced by the war, often living in cramped tent camps, the coming winter is a cause for concern - AFP
With many residents of Gaza displaced by the war, often living in cramped tent camps, the coming winter is a cause for concern - AFP

At a crowded camp in Gaza for those displaced by the Israeli war on the strip, Ayman Siam laid concrete blocks around his tent to keep his family dry as rain threatened more misery.

"I'm trying to protect my tent from the rainwater because we are expecting heavy rain. Three days ago when it rained, we were drenched," Siam said, seeking to shield his children and grandchildren from more wet weather.

Siam is among thousands sheltering at Gaza City's Yarmuk sports stadium in the north after being uprooted by the Israeli bombardment.

He lives in one of many flimsy tents set up at the stadium, where the pitch has become a muddy field dotted with puddles left by rainfall that washed away belongings and shelters.

People in the stadium dug small trenches around their tents, covered them with plastic sheets, and did whatever they could to stop the water from entering their makeshift homes.

Others used spades to direct the water into drains, as grey skies threatened more rain.

- 'Catastrophic' -

The majority of Gaza's 2.4 million people have been displaced, often multiple times, by the war that began with Hamas's attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed 44,235 people in Gaza, according to figures from the territory's health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.

With many displaced living in tent camps, the coming winter is raising serious concerns.

Mahmud Bassal, spokesman for Gaza's civil defence agency, told AFP that "tens of thousands of displaced people, especially in the central and south of Gaza Strip, are suffering from flooded tents due to the rains", and called on the international community to provide tents and aid.

International aid organizations have sounded the alarm about the deteriorating situation as winter approaches.

"It's going to be catastrophic," warned Louise Wateridge, an emergency officer for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees currently in Gaza.

"People don't have anything that they need," she said from Gaza City. "They haven't had basic, basic, basic things for 13 months, not food, not water, not shelter," she added.

"It's going to be miserable, it's going to be very desperate."

The rainy period in Gaza lasts between late October and April, with January being the wettest month, averaging 30 to 40 millimetres of rain.

Winter temperatures can drop as low as six degrees Celsius (42 Fahrenheit), AFP reported.

Recent rain has flooded hundreds of tents near the coast in Deir el-Balah, in central Gaza, as well as in Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south, according to Gaza's civil defense.

- 'Nothing left' -

Auni al-Sabea, living in a tent in Deir el-Balah, was among those bearing the brunt of the weather without proper accommodation.

"The rain and seawater flooded all the tents. We are helpless. The water took everything from the tent, including the mattresses, blankets and a water jug. We were only able to get a mattress and blankets for the children," said the displaced man.

"Now, we are in the street and we have nothing left," said the 40-year-old from Al-Shati Camp.

At the stadium, Umm Ahmed Saliha showed the water that pooled under her tent during morning prayers. "All of this is from this morning's rain and winter hasn't even started properly."