Russian Industry Targeted, Not Consumers, If Biden Export Curbs Imposed

A flag is seen on the US delegation's car, which is parked in front of the headquarters of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022. (Reuters)
A flag is seen on the US delegation's car, which is parked in front of the headquarters of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022. (Reuters)
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Russian Industry Targeted, Not Consumers, If Biden Export Curbs Imposed

A flag is seen on the US delegation's car, which is parked in front of the headquarters of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022. (Reuters)
A flag is seen on the US delegation's car, which is parked in front of the headquarters of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022. (Reuters)

The Biden administration plans to spare everyday Russians from the brunt of US export controls if Russia invades Ukraine, and focus on targeting industrial sectors, a White House official said.

"Key people" will also face "massive sanctions" a top Commerce official said in a separate speech on Friday.

The comments narrow the scope of potential curbs on imports to Russia that had previously been described as disrupting Russia's economy more broadly, hitting industrial sectors and consumer technologies like smartphones.

"We can't preview every action, but the intent there really is to have measures that we think will degrade Russia's industrial capabilities and industrial production capacity over time, not to go after individual, everyday Russian consumers," White House national security official Peter Harrell said in a virtual speech for the Massachusetts Export Center on Thursday that received little media coverage.

Harrell, who sits on the National Security Council, said the US was prepared, immediately after an invasion of Ukraine, to impose "crippling financial costs on major Russian financial institutions as well as to impose a range of quite sweeping export controls that will degrade Russian industrial capacity over the mid- and long-term."

US Commerce Department official Thea Kendler, who spoke to the export gathering on Friday, said "we are contemplating massive sanctions targeting key people and industries that were not on the table in 2014." In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Three days ago US President Joe Biden said he would consider personal sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin if he sent forces into Ukraine.

Harrell said that he hoped the hundreds of hours he and his colleagues had spent over the last couple of months developing measures would never see the light of day, but that they are prepared to impose the sweeping measures.

The two-fold strategy includes financial sanctions against major Russian financial institutions "to trigger capital flight, to trigger inflation, to make the Russian central bank provide bailouts to its banks... so Putin feels costs on day one," Harrell said.

Export control measures would be announced as part of the package but would probably not have the same immediate impacts, and instead "degrade Russia's ability to have industrial production in a couple of key sectors".

Harrell did not detail the sectors, but other White House officials have mentioned aviation, maritime, robotics, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and defense.

A person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday the focus was on strategic sectors significant to Russian leadership. Asked about Russia's lucrative oil and gas sector, the person said nothing was off the table.

Harrell said he expected the European Union to join in the effort. "Based on the discussions I've been having and, frankly people way above me ... we are quite confident we will have a very high degree of alignment with Europe if Russia does invade Ukraine."

Sources have said the US also may apply a rule to stop companies abroad from shipping items like semiconductors made with US technology to Russia, as it did to curb the global chip supply to China's Huawei, which it views as a threat.

The person familiar with the matter said on Thursday that US officials are also having conversations with Taiwan and South Korea, where major manufacturers of chips are located, and countries in southeast Asia, where some packaging is done.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.