OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
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OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)

OPEC+ will likely stick to existing policies of moderate output increases even as it expects demand to rise to new peaks this year and as oil prices trade near their highest since 2014.

The group, which comprises of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia and produces over 40% of global supply, has faced pressure from top consumers such as the United States and India to pump more to help the economic recovery from the pandemic.

But OPEC+ has refused to adhere to speedier increases of 400,000 barrels per day in March, arguing that the world is facing an energy shortage due to poorly calculated energy transitions to greener fuels by consuming nations.

Reuters quoted several OPEC+ sources as saying that prices had been pushed up by Russia-US tensions. Washington has accused Moscow of planning to invade Ukraine, which Russia denies.

OPEC+ oil output increases are complicated by the fact that several OPEC members have struggled to meet even current monthly targets and lack spare capacity to boost production any further.

Brent crude was trading up one percent above $90 a barrel on Wednesday and touched a seven-year high of $91.70 last week, amid tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

A report prepared by the committee, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), and seen by Reuters, kept the 2022 forecast for world oil demand growth unchanged at 4.2 million bpd, and said demand would hit pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year.

Oil demand was slightly above 100 million bpd in 2019 but was hammered by the pandemic in 2020, when OPEC+ cut its production by a record 10 million bpd or 10 percent of global supply.

The report still said the world would face a crude surplus in 2022 reaching 1.3 million bpd, slightly less than its previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.

The remaining cuts stand at 2.6 million bpd and OPEC+ hopes to wind them down before the end of the year.



Gold Lingers Near Two-week High as Focus Shifts to Payrolls Data

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Lingers Near Two-week High as Focus Shifts to Payrolls Data

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices were flat near a two-week high on Thursday after softer-than-expected US economic data spurred hopes of interest rate cuts as early as September, and the market spotlight is now on Friday's non-farm payrolls data.

Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $2,358.19 per ounce as of 9:53 a.m. ET (1353 GMT), after prices hit their highest level since June 21 on Wednesday. Most US markets were closed for Independence Day holiday on Thursday.

Bullion prices in the previous session gained more than 1% after a weak services report and ADP employment report on Wednesday depicted a slowing US economy, Reuters reported.

"It appears that there's a strong chance that the rate cuts might occur some time in the end of third quarter or early part of the fourth quarter, which just makes gold a lot more attractive than the alternative (which is) bonds," said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Minutes of the Fed's June meeting acknowledged the US economy appeared to be slowing and "price pressures were diminishing".

"Long-term wise, we're seeing the sanctions that the US placed (on Russia) inducing a lot of central banks and other governments to move towards gold specifically to eliminate the counterparty and default risk," Ebkarian added.

The sanctions, announced last month, are aimed at cutting off Russia's access to products and services needed to sustain military production for its war in Ukraine.

Traders are now focused on US nonfarm payrolls data, due on Friday. The market is looking for weaker job creation last month, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

"Together with an expected easing in wage pressure, the precious metal market is likely to react positively should these numbers be confirmed," Hansen added.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $30.409 while platinum rose 1.6% to $1,012.50.

Palladium was 0.5% down at $1,024.66, after scaling its highest level since mid-April in the previous session.