OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
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OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)

OPEC+ will likely stick to existing policies of moderate output increases even as it expects demand to rise to new peaks this year and as oil prices trade near their highest since 2014.

The group, which comprises of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia and produces over 40% of global supply, has faced pressure from top consumers such as the United States and India to pump more to help the economic recovery from the pandemic.

But OPEC+ has refused to adhere to speedier increases of 400,000 barrels per day in March, arguing that the world is facing an energy shortage due to poorly calculated energy transitions to greener fuels by consuming nations.

Reuters quoted several OPEC+ sources as saying that prices had been pushed up by Russia-US tensions. Washington has accused Moscow of planning to invade Ukraine, which Russia denies.

OPEC+ oil output increases are complicated by the fact that several OPEC members have struggled to meet even current monthly targets and lack spare capacity to boost production any further.

Brent crude was trading up one percent above $90 a barrel on Wednesday and touched a seven-year high of $91.70 last week, amid tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

A report prepared by the committee, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), and seen by Reuters, kept the 2022 forecast for world oil demand growth unchanged at 4.2 million bpd, and said demand would hit pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year.

Oil demand was slightly above 100 million bpd in 2019 but was hammered by the pandemic in 2020, when OPEC+ cut its production by a record 10 million bpd or 10 percent of global supply.

The report still said the world would face a crude surplus in 2022 reaching 1.3 million bpd, slightly less than its previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.

The remaining cuts stand at 2.6 million bpd and OPEC+ hopes to wind them down before the end of the year.



Facing Market Pain, UK’s Reeves Says ‘Pragmatic’ China Ties Will Help Growth

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves looks on during the 11th China - UK Economy and Finance Dialogue in Beijing, China, 11 January 2025. (EPA)
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves looks on during the 11th China - UK Economy and Finance Dialogue in Beijing, China, 11 January 2025. (EPA)
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Facing Market Pain, UK’s Reeves Says ‘Pragmatic’ China Ties Will Help Growth

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves looks on during the 11th China - UK Economy and Finance Dialogue in Beijing, China, 11 January 2025. (EPA)
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves looks on during the 11th China - UK Economy and Finance Dialogue in Beijing, China, 11 January 2025. (EPA)

British finance minister Rachel Reeves, facing criticism for travelling to China during financial market turmoil at home, said on Saturday that "pragmatic and predictable" relations with Beijing would help boost economic growth and trade.

Under pressure from a sharp rise in British interest rates, Reeves defended her budget at the start of the two-day visit to China, where she is seeking to revive high-level economic and financial talks that have been frozen for nearly six years.

"The fiscal rules that I set out in my budget in October are non-negotiable, and growth is the number one mission of this government to make our country better off," Reeves told reporters at a Brompton bicycle shop in Beijing.

"That's why I'm in China to unlock tangible benefits for British businesses exporting and trading around the world to ensure that we have greater access to the second-largest economy in the world."

The rise in British government borrowing costs, due in part to a global bond selloff, prompted comparisons with the 2022 "mini-budget" crisis that forced then-Prime Minister Liz Truss out of Downing Street.

However, this week's market moves have been less sharp and there has so far been no evidence of the strain on institutional investors that forced the Bank of England into emergency bond purchases in 2022.

On trade, asked whether Britain would follow Washington and Brussels in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, Reeves, who will be in Shanghai on Sunday, said: "We keep issues under review but we make decisions in our national interest."

British car manufacturers, "like Jaguar Land Rover, export substantially to Chinese markets, and we want to help them to grow."

After her bicycle shop visit, Reeves met Vice President Han Zheng, telling him it was "important to have open and frank dialogue in areas where we agree, but also in areas where we have different views."

'COMMON GROUND'

Her delegation, which includes Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Standard Chartered Chairman Jose Vinals, and HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker, then met Chinese counterparts led by Vice Premier He Lifeng.

He urged British financial firms to expand renminbi services and promote deeper yuan internationalization, while inviting them to participate in green finance and the pension industry in China.

Reeves said she looked forward to China issuing its first overseas sovereign green bond in London this year.

Her visit follows a dialogue opened last year between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Xi Jinping, the first between the two countries' leaders since 2018.

Reeves told He that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising geopolitical tensions and climate change meant that they faced a much more challenging environment than when their predecessors last met.

"It is important to prevent economic leaps weakening our national security and economic resilience," she said, adding both she and He wanted to "find common ground" in this regard.

He said Beijing will work with London to ensure a fair, non-discriminatory business environment for each country's firms.

The approach adopted by Starmer's Labor government, elected in July, contrasts with that of the previous Conservative administration, which took a robust path to differences with China - particularly over human rights, Hong Kong and allegations of Chinese espionage.

Starmer has long described his desire to build a relationship with China that is "rooted in the UK's national interests" by boosting trade, a task that may become more difficult if US President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on all imports.

China is Britain's fourth-largest trading partner, accounting for goods and services trade worth almost 113 billion pounds ($138 billion).