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Turkish Lira Driven to Mid-January Low by Ukraine-Russia Crisis

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Driven to Mid-January Low by Ukraine-Russia Crisis

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)

The Turkish lira weakened as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar on Tuesday, nearing its weakest level this year, after Russia escalated tensions in eastern Ukraine, posing a risk to Turkey's macroeconomic stability.

The losses came as Russia's parliament approved treaties with two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, opening the way for a Russian troop deployment despite the threat of Western sanctions, including blocking a major new pipeline.

NATO member Turkey faces a tough balancing act in the crisis as it has good ties with both Ukraine and Russia. Ankara has criticized Russia's decision to recognize the independence of the two regions, but opposes sanctions, Reuters reported.

The lira slid as far as 13.9025, suffering its biggest daily losses since early January. It has traded in a narrow range since then as Ankara acted to stabilize the currency. It trimmed its losses to 13.85 by 1325 GMT.

The threat of war between Turkey's Black Sea neighbors Russia and Ukraine could harm the country's already ailing economy after a currency crisis in December.

“A prolonged conflict...could keep energy prices high throughout the year, or may even propel them higher. The energy shock is already advancing through various channels to make life miserable in Turkey,” said Atilla Yesilada, Istanbul-based analyst at GlobalSource Partners.

Any prolonged conflict could also cut tourist flows to Turkey by around $2 billion this summer, assuming Russian and Ukrainian tourist arrivals stay the same as in 2021 or dip a bit, he wrote in a note.

Last year, the lira dropped 44 percent against the US currency, tumbling after the central bank pushed through 500 basis points of unorthodox interest rate cuts from September under pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan.

Costly state interventions in the forex market and a scheme to protect lira deposits against depreciation has bolstered the currency since it touched a record low of 18.4 last year.

The lira slide late last year has in turn triggered a surge in annual inflation to nearly 50 percent for Turkey's import-dependent economy, adding to the concerns regarding energy import costs.

Oil prices rose to their highest since 2014 after Moscow ordered troops into eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices towards $100 a barrel.

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Business

Mawani Signs Agreement to Construct Offshore Structures at Ras Al-Khair Port

Mawani Signs Agreement to Construct Offshore Structures at Ras Al-Khair Port
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Mawani Signs Agreement to Construct Offshore Structures at Ras Al-Khair Port

Mawani Signs Agreement to Construct Offshore Structures at Ras Al-Khair Port

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has signed a contract with Singatac Arabia to establish a fabrication center for offshore structures and platforms at Ras Al-Khair Port.

The contract supports the oil and gas industry and includes warehouses for prefabricated parts, specialized welding equipment, systems, and cranes to serve offshore platform and marine structure projects with an investment of SAR139 million across 100,000 square meters, according to SPA.

The project aims to create over 500 direct and indirect jobs, strengthen Ras Al-Khair Port’s operational capabilities and value-added services, expand port capacity, and increase the contribution of exports to the national economy.

Ras Al-Khair Port is distinguished by its strategic location and its ability to efficiently handle a wide range of goods. It features 14 berths with a total capacity of 35 million tons and spans an area of 23 kilometers.

Business

Asian Shares Rise, Tracking Wall Street Gains as Trump Backs Down on Greenland

Traders work in front of screens at Hana Bank in Seoul (EPA)
Traders work in front of screens at Hana Bank in Seoul (EPA)
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Asian Shares Rise, Tracking Wall Street Gains as Trump Backs Down on Greenland

Traders work in front of screens at Hana Bank in Seoul (EPA)
Traders work in front of screens at Hana Bank in Seoul (EPA)

Asian shares mostly advanced on Thursday, tracking Wall Street, after US President Donald Trump walked back from imposing tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland and ruled out using military force to take control of the territory.

The future for the S&P 500 gained less than 0.1% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually flat on Thursday, The Associated Press reported.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.7% to 53,688.89, with technology stocks leading gains. SoftBank Group jumped 11.6% and equipment maker Disco Corp. soared 17.1%. Advantest, which makes testing equipment for computer chips, surged 5%.

South Korea’s Kospi closed 0.9% higher at 4,952.44 after crossing the 5,000 mark for the first time, as traders cheered. Technology-related stocks drove the rally. Shares of chipmaker SK Hynix picked up 2%, while Samsung Electronics rose 1.9%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged less than 0.1% higher to 26,600.68. The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% higher to 4,122.58.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained nearly 0.8% to 8,848.70.

Taiwan’s Taiex rose 1.6%, while India’s Sensex added 0.2%.

US markets logged their biggest losses since October on Tuesday as investors reacted to Trump’s threat over the weekend to slap tariffs of 10% on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland for opposing US control of Greenland, sparking concerns over worsening relationships between the US and its European allies.

But Trump, attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, backed down on Wednesday and said he would not use force to acquire Greenland. The US president also said in a post on his social media site that he had agreed with the head of NATO on a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland and on Arctic security.

The easing tensions drove Wall Street optimism. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 6,875. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% to 49,077.23, while the Nasdaq composite also rose 1.2%, to 23,224.82.

Halliburton, the oil field services company, jumped 4.1% following stronger-than-expected profits for the latest quarter. United Airlines rose 2.2% also after better-than-expected quarterly profits. Netflix fell 2.2% even as it reported a stronger profit than expected, as investors focused on factors including a slowing growth of subscribers.

The price of gold fell 0.2% to $4,828.70 per ounce, reflecting investors’ reduced worries, after passing the $4,800 mark ahead of Trump’s reversal of stance on Greenland as many flocked to safe-haven assets.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields also eased following lessened fear among investors as well as a calming of Japan’s bond market turmoil. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.25% from 4.30% late Tuesday.

Japan’s long-term bond yields surged to records earlier this week after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to call a snap election in February. That sparked concerns over her pledges to cut taxes and increase spending, which could hinder efforts to rein in government debt.

The US dollar rose to 158.75 Japanese yen from 158.27 yen, prompting analysts to speculate that authorities might intervene if the yen falls any further.

The euro rose to $1.1692 from $1.1687.

US benchmark crude oil shed 16 cents to $60.46 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 24 cents to $65.00 per barrel.

Business

Goldman Sachs Raises 2026-end Gold Price Forecast to $5,400/oz

A customer waits his turn to trade gold behind a glass window displaying gold prices at a gold shop in Bangkok (EPA)
A customer waits his turn to trade gold behind a glass window displaying gold prices at a gold shop in Bangkok (EPA)
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Goldman Sachs Raises 2026-end Gold Price Forecast to $5,400/oz

A customer waits his turn to trade gold behind a glass window displaying gold prices at a gold shop in Bangkok (EPA)
A customer waits his turn to trade gold behind a glass window displaying gold prices at a gold shop in Bangkok (EPA)

Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900/oz earlier, noting private-sector and emerging market central banks' diversification ​into gold.

Spot gold climbed to a peak of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday. The safe-haven metal has climbed more than 11% so far in 2026, extending a blistering rally that saw it jump 64% last year.

"We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge ‌global policy ‌risks and have driven the ‌upside ⁠surprise ​to our ‌price forecast, don't liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast," the brokerage said in a note dated Wednesday.

The brokerage also expects central bank buying to average 60 tons in 2026 as ⁠emerging market central banks are likely to continue diversification of ‌their reserves into gold.

Commerzbank, last ‍week, raised its ‍gold price forecast to $4,900 by the end ‍of this year, citing increased safe-haven demand.