Putin’s War in Ukraine Nearing Possibly More Dangerous Phase

Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
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Putin’s War in Ukraine Nearing Possibly More Dangerous Phase

Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)

President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is approaching a new, potentially more dangerous phase after a month of fighting has left Russian forces stalled by an outnumbered foe. He is left with stark choices — how and where to replenish his spent ground forces, whether to attack the flow of Western arms to Ukrainian defenders, and at what cost he might escalate or widen the war.

Despite failing to score a quick victory, Putin is not relenting in the face of mounting international pressure, including sanctions that have battered his economy. The Western world is aligned largely against Putin, but there have been no indications he is losing support from the majority of the Russian public that relies predominantly on state-controlled TV for information.

Ukrainian defenders, outgunned but benefiting from years of American and NATO training and an accelerating influx of foreign arms and moral support, are showing new signs of confidence as the invading force struggles to regroup.

Russian shortcomings in Ukraine might be the biggest shock of the war so far. After two decades of modernization and professionalization, Putin’s forces have proved to be ill-prepared, poorly coordinated and surprisingly stoppable. The extent of Russian troop losses is not known in detail, although NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 have died in the first four weeks — potentially as many as Russia lost in a decade of war in Afghanistan.

Robert Gates, the former CIA director and defense secretary, said Putin “has got to be stunningly disappointed” in his military's performance.

“Here we are in Ukraine seeing conscripts not knowing why they’re there, not being very well trained, and just huge problems with command and control, and incredibly lousy tactics,” Gates said at a forum sponsored by The OSS Society, a group honoring the World War II-era intelligence agency known as the Office of Strategic Services.

Battlefield trends are difficult to reliably discern from the outside, but some Western officials say they see potentially significant shifts. Air Vice-Marshal Mick Smeath, London's defense attaché in Washington, says British intelligence assesses that Ukrainian forces probably have retaken two towns west of Kyiv, the capital.

“It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganize and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” Smeath said in a brief statement Wednesday.

Ukraine’s navy said Thursday it sank a large Russian landing ship near the port city of Berdyansk.

Faced with stout Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have resorted to bombardment of urban areas but made little progress capturing the main prize — Kyiv. The Pentagon said Wednesday that some Russian troops were digging in at defensive positions outside of Kyiv rather than attempting to advance on the capital, and that in some cases the Russians have lost ground in recent days.

In an assessment published Thursday, the Atlantic Council said a major Russian breakthrough is highly unlikely.

Not long before Putin kicked off his war Feb. 24, some US military officials believed he could capture Kyiv in short order — perhaps just a few days — and that he might break the Ukrainian military within a couple of weeks. Putin, too, might have expected a quick victory, given that he did not throw the bulk of his pre-staged forces, estimated at more than 150,000, into the fight in the opening days. Nor did his air force assert itself. He has made only limited use of electronic warfare and cyberattacks.

Putin is resorting to siege tactics against key Ukrainian cities, bombing from afar with his ground troops largely stagnant.

Stephen Biddle, a professor of international affairs at Columbia University, says Putin's shift is likely based on a hope that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will give up rather than allow the killing and destruction to continue.

“This plan is very unlikely to work. Slaughtering innocent civilians and destroying their homes and communities is mostly just stiffening Ukrainian resistance and resolve,” Biddle said in an email exchange.

Ukrainian units have begun counterattacking in some areas, according to John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary. But the Ukrainians face an uphill battle even as the United States and its allies accelerate and widen a flow of critical weapons and supplies, including anti-aircraft missiles and armed drones. Biden has vowed to seek longer-range air defense systems for Ukraine as well as anti-ship missiles. Last week he approved a new $800 million package of arms for Ukraine.

Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general who served as the top NATO commander in Europe from 2013 to 2016 and is now a Europe specialist with the Middle East Institute, said Ukraine may not win the war outright, but the outcome will be determined by what Zelenskyy is willing to accept in a negotiated settlement.

“I think it's highly unlikely that Russia is going to be defeated in detail on the battlefield,” Breedlove said, because Russia has a large reserve of forces it could call on. But Ukraine might see winning as forcing Russia to pay such a high price that it is willing to strike a deal and withdraw.

“I think there is a chance of that,” Breedlove said.

With the war's outcome in doubt, so too is Putin's wider goal of overturning the security order that has existed in Europe since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Putin demands that NATO refuse membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet states like Georgia, and that the alliance roll back its military presence to positions held prior to expanding into Eastern Europe.

NATO leaders have rejected Putin's demands, and with uncharacteristic speed are bolstering the allied force presence in Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, which border Ukraine, and in Bulgaria, which like Ukraine sits on the Black Sea.

“We are united in our resolve to counter Russia’s attempts to destroy the foundations of international security and stability,” leaders of the 30 allied nations said in a joint statement after meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

The human tragedy unfolding in Ukraine has overshadowed a worry across Europe that Putin could, by miscalculation if not by intent, escalate the conflict by using chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine or attempt to punish neighboring NATO nations for their support for Ukraine by attacking them militarily.

“Unfortunately there is now not a single country that can live with the illusion that they are safe and secure,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said, referring to his fellow European members of NATO.

With that threat in mind, the United States and other allied countries have begun assembling combat forces in Bulgaria and other Eastern European NATO countries — not to enter the war directly but to send Putin the message that if he were to widen his war he would face allied resistance.

Speaking at a windswept training range in Bulgaria last week, US Army Maj. Ryan Mannina of the 2nd Cavalry Regiment said the tension is palpable.

“We're very aware that there's a war going on only a few hundred miles from us,” he said.



Baby Freezes to Death Overnight in Gaza as Israel, Hamas Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Delays

Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
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Baby Freezes to Death Overnight in Gaza as Israel, Hamas Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Delays

Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)

A baby girl froze to death overnight in Gaza, while Israel and Hamas accused each other of complicating ceasefire efforts that could wind down the 14-month war.

The 3-week old baby was the third to die from the cold in Gaza's tent camps in recent days, doctors said, deaths that underscore the squalid conditions, with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians crammed into often ramshackle tents after fleeing Israeli offensives.

Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza has killed over 45,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

The offensive has caused widespread destruction and displaced some 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands are packed into tent camps along the coast as the cold, wet winter sets in. Aid groups have struggled to deliver food and supplies and say there are shortages of blankets, warm clothing and firewood, The AP reported.

Israel has increased the amount of aid it allows into the territory, reaching an average of 130 trucks a day so far this month, up from around 70 a day in October and November. Still, the amount remains well below than previous months and the United Nations says it is unable to distribute more than half the aid because Israeli forces deny permission to move within Gaza or because of rampant lawlessness and theft from trucks.

The father of 3-week-old Sila, Mahmoud al-Faseeh, wrapped her in a blanket to try and keep her warm in their tent in the Muwasi area outside the town of Khan Younis, but it wasn't enough, he told The Associated Press.

He said the tent was not sealed from the wind and the ground was cold, as temperatures on Tuesday night dropped to 9 degrees Celsius (48 degrees Fahrenheit.) Muwasi is a desolate area of dunes and farmland on Gaza’s Mediterranean coast.

“It was very cold overnight and as adults we couldn’t even take it. We couldn’t stay warm,” he said. Sila woke up crying three times overnight and in the morning they found her unresponsive, her body stiff.

“She was like wood,” said al-Faseeh. They rushed her to a field hospital where doctors tried to revive her, but her lungs had already deteriorated. Images of Sila taken by the AP showed the little girl with purple lips, her pale skin blotchy.

Ahmed al-Farra, director of the children’s ward at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, confirmed that the baby died of hypothermia. He said two other babies — one 3 days old, the other a month old — had been brought to the hospital over the past 48 hours after dying of hypothermia.

Meanwhile, hopes for a ceasefire looked complicated Wednesday, with Israel and the militant Hamas group that runs Gaza trading accusations of delaying an agreement. In recent weeks, the two sides appeared to be inching toward a deal that would bring home dozens of hostages held by the militants in Gaza, but differences have emerged.

Although Israel and Hamas have expressed optimism that progress was being made toward a deal, sticking points remain over the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, people involved in the talks say.

On Wednesday, Hamas accused Israel of introducing new conditions related to the withdrawal from Gaza, the prisoners and the return of displaced people, which it said was delaying the deal.

Israel's government accused Hamas of reneging on understandings that have already been reached.” Still, both sides said discussions are ongoing.

Israel’s negotiating team, which includes members from its intelligence agencies and the military, returned from Qatar on Tuesday evening for internal consultations, following a week of what it called “significant negotiations."

During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups took about 250 people hostages and brought them to Gaza. A previous truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.

Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.

Sporadic talks have taken place for a year, but in recent weeks there's been a renewed push to reach a deal.

President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office next month for his second term, has demanded the immediate release of Israeli hostages, saying on social media that if they're not freed before he is sworn in, there will be “HELL TO PAY.”

Families of the hostages are becoming increasingly angry, calling on the Israeli government for a ceasefire before Trump is sworn in.

After Israel’s high-level negotiation team returned from Doha this week, hostage families called an emergency press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, pleading for a ceasefire and a complete end to the war.

Shir Siegel, the daughter of Israeli-American Keith Siegel, whose mother was released after more than 50 days in captivity, said every delay could endanger their lives. “There are moments when every second is fateful, and this is one of those moments,” she said.

Families of the hostages marked the first night of Hannukah with a candle lighting ceremony in Tel Aviv as well as by the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

The agreement would take effect in phases and include a halt in fighting, an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza, according to Egyptian, Hamas and American officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war and talks on reconstruction.