Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



US Braces for Potential Iranian Retaliatory Operations within its Borders

US President Donald Trump speaks with the media as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (R) and special envoy Steve Witkoff (C) look on aboard Air Force One during a flight from Dover, Delaware, to Miami, Florida, on March 7, 2026. (AFP)
US President Donald Trump speaks with the media as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (R) and special envoy Steve Witkoff (C) look on aboard Air Force One during a flight from Dover, Delaware, to Miami, Florida, on March 7, 2026. (AFP)
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US Braces for Potential Iranian Retaliatory Operations within its Borders

US President Donald Trump speaks with the media as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (R) and special envoy Steve Witkoff (C) look on aboard Air Force One during a flight from Dover, Delaware, to Miami, Florida, on March 7, 2026. (AFP)
US President Donald Trump speaks with the media as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (R) and special envoy Steve Witkoff (C) look on aboard Air Force One during a flight from Dover, Delaware, to Miami, Florida, on March 7, 2026. (AFP)

Fears have grown in the US that Tehran could activate “sleeper cells” or carry out unconventional retaliatory attacks on American soil as Washington and Tel Aviv continue their war against Iran.

President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that his administration knows where the Iranian sleeper cells are and is monitoring all of their members. The statement appeared aimed both at reassuring the public and sending a warning to Iran.

Still, the tone contrasts with more cautious assessments from US security agencies, which say the threat remains potential rather than imminent or specific.

Security agencies on alert

Trump’s remarks followed earlier comments in which he said the situation was “under control” and that authorities were “watching everyone” of the suspected sleeper cells.

While the president sought to link the issue to immigration, security agencies have adopted a more measured approach. A US intelligence assessment issued after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that Iran and its proxies could resort to selective attacks inside the United States, though large-scale assaults are considered less likely.

Officials see a higher probability of cyberattacks or smaller operations carried out by limited networks or sympathetic individuals.

The Department of Homeland Security has similarly assessed that Iran and its proxies could pose a threat through targeted attacks inside the United States.

Against that backdrop, Kash Patel, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, announced on Feb. 28 that the bureau had placed its counterterrorism and intelligence teams on “maximum alert.”

The move included mobilizing additional security resources and emphasizing that the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Forces nationwide are working around the clock to detect and disrupt potential threats. Such measures typically involve heightened surveillance of high-priority suspects, expanded use of confidential sources, reviews of technical intelligence tools and closer coordination between federal and local authorities.

Drone concerns in California

One development that drew attention in recent days was the disclosure of a confidential FBI bulletin circulated through the Los Angeles Joint Regional Intelligence Center before the outbreak of the war.

The notice warned that Iran might attempt to retaliate for US attacks by launching drones from ships at sea targeting California.

According to a security bulletin reviewed by Reuters, the FBI distributed the warning last month to law enforcement agencies, citing information collected in late February suggesting Iran could plan a surprise drone attack launched from a vessel offshore if Washington carried out strikes against it.

The bulletin, however, contained no specific information on timing or targets and described the scenario more as a potential ambition than a confirmed operational plan. It also said no further details were available regarding how such an attack might be carried out or who might be involved.

Details of the bulletin emerged publicly as the war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, entered its twelfth day.

Vigilance but no imminent threat

California authorities sought to balance caution with reassurance. Governor Gavin Newsom said the state was aware of the warning and was coordinating closely with federal and local agencies while preparing for worst-case scenarios. He stressed that no credible or imminent threats had been identified.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie delivered similar messages, saying no specific threat had been detected but that coordination with federal authorities was ongoing.

Local police departments across the state said they had been informed of a higher risk environment and urged residents to report suspicious activity.

Past incidents

Previous cases have heightened US concerns. In July 2021, the Justice Department revealed a plot linked to an Iranian intelligence network to kidnap journalist and activist Masih Alinejad from New York and forcibly take her to Iran.

In March 2025, a federal court convicted two leaders of an Eastern European organized crime network in a murder-for-hire scheme targeting Alinejad on behalf of actors linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

They were sentenced in October that year to 25 years in prison each. Another defendant involved in surveilling Alinejad and planning her killing in New York was sentenced in January 2026 to 15 years in prison.


Turkish-Owned Ship Allowed to Pass Through Strait of Hormuz, Minister Says

A man walks along the shore as oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP)
A man walks along the shore as oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP)
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Turkish-Owned Ship Allowed to Pass Through Strait of Hormuz, Minister Says

A man walks along the shore as oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP)
A man walks along the shore as oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP)

A Turkish-owned ship that had been waiting near Iran was allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after authorities received permission from Tehran, Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir ‌Uraloglu was reported ‌as saying by ‌local ⁠media.

Ankara was continuing ⁠contacts with Iranian officials regarding the situation of the remaining 14 Turkish-owned vessels there, Uraloglu told reporters ⁠late on Thursday, ‌news website ‌Haberturk said.

"Fifteen ships (with Turkish ‌owners) were there; we ‌obtained permission from the Iranian authorities for one of them, which had used ‌an Iranian port, and it passed," Uraloglu ⁠was ⁠quoted as saying.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers and other ships stranded, which has stoked concerns about global energy supply.


US Wants to 'Divide Europe', EU's Kallas Tells FT

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrives for a meeting of EU foreign ministers and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council at the European Council building in Brussels, Belgium, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrives for a meeting of EU foreign ministers and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council at the European Council building in Brussels, Belgium, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
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US Wants to 'Divide Europe', EU's Kallas Tells FT

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrives for a meeting of EU foreign ministers and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council at the European Council building in Brussels, Belgium, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrives for a meeting of EU foreign ministers and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council at the European Council building in Brussels, Belgium, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the US wants to "divide Europe" and doesn't "like the European Union" in an interview published by the Financial Times on Friday, after more than a year of turmoil in transatlantic relations.

"What I think is actually important for everybody to understand is that the US has been very clear that they ‌want to divide ‌Europe. They don't like the ‌European ⁠Union," Kallas told the ⁠FT.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly targeted the European Union in his second term, imposing tariffs on member countries and others and talking about annexing Greenland - a move that could effectively end the NATO alliance.

This week, Trump's administration ⁠launched trade investigations into the EU and ‌other countries, including ‌China, India, Japan, South Korea and Mexico, over what ‌it said were unfair trade practices. Under the ‌investigation, the countries could face new tariffs by this summer, after the US Supreme Court tore down much of Trump's tariff program last month.

Kallas said ‌the United States' approach to the EU echoed tactics used by the bloc's ⁠adversaries, ⁠according to the FT.

EU countries should not be looking to deal with Trump bilaterally, she said, and instead should deal with him together, "because we are equal powers when we are together," the FT reported.

On defense, however, Kallas said the bloc needed "to buy from America because we don't have the assets or the possibilities or the capabilities that we need," adding that Europe needed to invest in its own defense industry.