Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



Iran, European Countries Hold ‘Frank, Constructive’ Talks to Break Nuclear Stalemate

Majid Takht-Ravanchi briefs Iran’s National Security Committee on the results of the second round of dialogue with the European countries early last month. (Iranian parliament)
Majid Takht-Ravanchi briefs Iran’s National Security Committee on the results of the second round of dialogue with the European countries early last month. (Iranian parliament)
TT

Iran, European Countries Hold ‘Frank, Constructive’ Talks to Break Nuclear Stalemate

Majid Takht-Ravanchi briefs Iran’s National Security Committee on the results of the second round of dialogue with the European countries early last month. (Iranian parliament)
Majid Takht-Ravanchi briefs Iran’s National Security Committee on the results of the second round of dialogue with the European countries early last month. (Iranian parliament)

Talks between Iran and European powers in Geneva regarding Tehran's disputed nuclear program were serious, frank and constructive, high level Iranian diplomats said, just a week before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

European Union diplomat Enrique Mora said he held a “constructive meeting” with Iranian deputy foreign ministers Kazem Gharibabadi and Majid Takht-Ravanchi in Geneva on “exploring ways for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue.”

For his part, Gharibabadi posted on X that he and Takht-Ravanchi held open and constructive discussions with Mora and his team.

“We exchanged views mainly on nuclear and sanctions lifting as well as other issues of mutual interest,” he wrote.

“We also addressed Europe’s support for Israeli crimes in Gaza,” Gharibabadi said.

The Iranian delegation and the three European powers, Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, met in Geneva on Monday.

“Against a challenging context, we discussed concerns and reiterated our commitment to a diplomatic solution. We agreed to continue our dialogue,” they said in a statement posted on their X accounts.

Before the meeting with the Iranian delegation, the German foreign ministry told AFP that the talks were “not negotiations” while Iran said they were merely “consultations.”

Iran's ISNA news agency reported that the two Iranian diplomats and their counterparts from the E3 “discussed issues of mutual interest, including negotiations for lifting sanctions, the nuclear issue and the worrying situation in the region.”

It was the second round of such talks between Iran and the E3 in less than two months, following a discreet meeting in Geneva last November.

At that time, an Iranian official told Reuters that finalizing a roadmap with Europeans would “put the ball in the US court to revive or kill the nuclear deal.”

On Monday, Gharibabadi said in a post on X, “We discussed ideas involving certain details in the sanctions-lifting and nuclear fields that are needed for a deal.”

“Sides concurred that negotiations should be resumed and to reach a deal, all parties should create and maintain the appropriate atmosphere. We agreed to continue our dialogue,” he added.

Officials in Tehran fear that Trump will revive his maximum pressure strategy that sought to wreck Iran's economy to force the country to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program, ballistic missile program and regional activities.

In 2018, the US, led by then-President Trump, exited Iran's 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran.

That prompted Tehran to violate the pact's nuclear limits by rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.

Indirect talks between US President Joe Biden’s administration and Tehran to try to revive the pact have failed.

Trump has vowed to return to the policy he pursued in his previous term.

Last December, a top Iranian diplomat warned Tehran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty after the E3 informed the UN Security Council their readiness to use all diplomatic tools to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, including using snapback.

The snapback mechanism - part of the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - allows signatories to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran in cases of the “significant non-performance” of commitments.