Prospects for Reviving Iran Nuclear Deal ‘Tenuous’ at Best, Says US

Robert Malley, Biden administration special envoy for Iran, testifies about the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations on Capitol Hill May 25, 2022, in Washington, DC. (AFP)
Robert Malley, Biden administration special envoy for Iran, testifies about the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations on Capitol Hill May 25, 2022, in Washington, DC. (AFP)
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Prospects for Reviving Iran Nuclear Deal ‘Tenuous’ at Best, Says US

Robert Malley, Biden administration special envoy for Iran, testifies about the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations on Capitol Hill May 25, 2022, in Washington, DC. (AFP)
Robert Malley, Biden administration special envoy for Iran, testifies about the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations on Capitol Hill May 25, 2022, in Washington, DC. (AFP)

The chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are shaky at best and Washington is ready to tighten sanctions on Tehran and respond to "any Iranian escalation" with Israel and others if the pact cannot be saved, a senior US official said on Wednesday.

"We do not have a deal ... and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous," US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, alluding to indirect US-Iran talks in Vienna that unraveled in March.

Malley's comments drew criticism from senior Democratic and Republican senators, who voiced skepticism about returning to the deal and deep frustration that they do not understand Democratic US President Joe Biden's "Plan B" if the negotiations fail.

Under the agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and struck by Iran and six major powers in 2015, Tehran limited its nuclear program to make it harder for it to get a bomb in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

Tehran has long said its program is for peaceful purposes.

Republican then-US President Donald Trump reneged on the accord in 2018 and reimposed harsh US sanctions, prompting Iran to begin violating the nuclear limits about a year later.

Despite past US statements that the time to resurrect the deal was running out, Malley said Washington would keep trying to revive it for as long as it judged that the nonproliferation benefits of returning outweighed the sanctions relief to Iran.

While saying that "all options are on the table" - code for the possibility of military action - Malley said a strike on Iran's nuclear program would only slow it down, not stop it.

"By far the best option is a diplomatic one," he said. "(A) military option cannot resolve this issue. It could set it back. .... The only real solution here is a diplomatic one."

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, a Democrat who opposed the original agreement, said he did not understand why the Biden administration was still willing to negotiate nor what it would do if talks fail.

"Why is it that we are still keeping the door open?" Menendez said. "What is your Plan B?"

Malley said the United States is working with Israel and European partners to try to deter and respond to any Iranian actions, including attacks on US partners as well as its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle programs.

He declined to say whether the United States might support censuring Iran at the June International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors meeting.

He also said he was confident that whatever the outcome of the nuclear talks, European allies would act in tandem with Washington "whether it has to do with sanctions enforcement, action at the IAEA Board of Governors action, (or) in terms of strengthening our partners in the Gulf to counter Iran."



Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
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Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)

Somalia's Al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabaab vowed Saturday to fight any attempt by Israel "to claim or use parts of Somaliland" following its recognition of the breakaway territory.

"We will not accept it, and we will fight against it," Al-Shabaab said in a statement.

Its spokesman Ali Dheere said in the statement that Israel's recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state showed it "has decided to expand into parts of the Somali territories" to support "the apostate administration in the northwest regions".

Israel said Friday it was officially recognizing Somaliland, a first for the self-proclaimed republic that in 1991 declared it had unilaterally seceded from Somalia.

Mogadishu immediately denounced a "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty, while Egypt, Türkiye, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation all condemned Israel's move.

Regional analysts believe that a rapprochement with Somaliland could allow Israel to secure better access to the Red Sea.

In addition, press reports a few months ago said Somaliland was among a handful of African territories willing to host Palestinians expelled by Israel, but neither the Somaliland authorities nor the Israeli government has ever commented on those reports.

"It is humiliation of the highest level today, to see some Somali people celebrating a recognition by the Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu" when "Israel is the biggest enemy of the Islamic society".

The territory of Somaliland is roughly a third the size of France and corresponds more or less to the former British Somaliland protectorate.

It has its own money, army and police and enjoys relative stability compared to its neighbors.

But, until now, Somaliland had not been publicly recognized by any country, which has kept it politically and economically isolated despite its location on one of the world's busiest trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal.

Somalia has been battling Al-Shabaab for nearly 20 years and while security has significantly improved in Mogadishu, the war still rages 60 kilometers from the capital.


China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
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China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)

China on Saturday welcomed a joint ceasefire statement signed by Cambodia and Thailand and said its foreign minister would meet his counterparts from both countries in China, according to a notice posted on the foreign ministry's website late in the day.

Cambodia and Thailand agreed ‌on Saturday to ‌a second ceasefire ‌in ⁠recent months, ‌ending weeks of intense border clashes described as the worst fighting in years between the two Southeast Asian neighbors.

China's foreign ministry said the agreement showed that dialogue and consultation ⁠were practical and effective ways to resolve ‌complex disputes.

Foreign Minister Wang ‍Yi will meet ‍Cambodian counterpart Prak Sokhonn and ‍Thailand's Sihasak Phuangketkeow in southwestern Yunnan province on December 28–29, the ministry said, adding that military representatives from all three countries would also attend.

China said it was willing to continue ⁠providing a platform and facilitating more substantive and detailed communication between Cambodia and Thailand.

"China will play a constructive role in its own way to help Cambodia and Thailand consolidate the ceasefire, resume exchanges, rebuild political mutual trust, achieve a turnaround in relations and maintain regional ‌peace," the ministry said.


Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
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Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet US President Donald Trump in Florida on Monday, an Israeli official told AFP, in what is seen as a crucial visit for the next steps of the fragile Gaza truce plan.

It will be Netanyahu's fifth visit to see key ally Trump in the United States this year.

His trip comes as the Trump administration and regional mediators push to proceed to the second stage of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

An Israeli official on Saturday said Netanyahu would leave for the US on December 28 and meet with Trump a day later in Florida, without providing a specific location.

Trump told reporters in mid-December that Netanyahu would probably visit him in Florida during the Christmas holidays.

"He would like to see me. We haven't set it up formally, but he'd like to see me," Trump said before leaving for his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported on Wednesday that a wide range of regional issues was expected to be discussed, including Iran, talks on an Israel-Syria security agreement, the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the next stages of the Gaza deal.

- 'Going nowhere' -

Concerning Gaza, the timing of the meeting is "very significant", said Gershon Baskin, the co-head of peacebuilding commission the Alliance for Two States, who has taken part in back-channel negotiations with Hamas.

"Phase one is basically over, there's one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which they (Hamas) are having difficulty finding," he told AFP.

"Phase two has to begin, it's even late and I think the Americans realize that it's late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place," he added.

Progress in moving to the second phase of October's Gaza ceasefire agreement, which was brokered by Washington and its regional allies, has so far been slow.

Both sides allege frequent ceasefire violations and mediators fear that Israel and Hamas alike are stalling.

Under the next stages, Israel is supposed to withdraw from its positions in Gaza, an interim authority is to govern the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas, and an international stabilization force (ISF) is to be deployed.

It also includes a provision for Palestinian movement Hamas to lay down its weapons -- a major sticking point.

On Friday, US news outlet Axios reported that the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu was key to advancing to the next steps of the deal.

Citing White House officials, Axios said that the Trump administration wanted to announce the Palestinian technocratic government for Gaza and the ISF as soon as possible.

It reported that senior Trump officials were growing exasperated "as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and stall the peace process".

"There are more and more signs that the American administration is getting frustrated with Netanyahu," said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at London-based think-tank Chatham House.

"The question is what it's going to do about it," he added, "because phase two is right now going nowhere."

- Iran tops agenda -

While the Trump administration is keen for progress on Gaza, analysts said the prospect of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities was likely to top the agenda for Netanyahu.

"All the news that we've heard in the Israeli media over the last two weeks about Iran building up its missiles and being a threat to Israel is all part of a planned strategy of deflecting attention from Gaza to the issue that Netanyahu loves to talk about which is Iran," said Baskin.

In June, Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites as well as residential areas.

Iran responded with drone and missile strikes on Israel, and later on in the 12-day war, the United States joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

Mekelberg shared the view that Netanyahu could be attempting to shift attention from Gaza onto Iran.

With Israel entering an election year, Mekelberg said with regards to the Trump meeting, Netanyahu would be "taking a defensive approach, to minimize what can be difficult for him coming back home".

"Everything is connected to staying in power," he said of the long-time Israeli premier.