IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted solid indicators for the Saudi economy, expecting a 7.6 percent overall GDP growth in 2022.

Non-oil growth will increase to 4.2 percent in 2022, with the current account surplus will increase to 17.4 percent of GDP in 2022, said the Fund experts.

An IMF mission conducted discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation from May 23-June 6 and issued a concluding statement describing their preliminary findings.

The experts emphasized the strength of the Saudi economy and its financial position, explaining that the country's economic prospects have a positive outlook in the short and medium term.

"The near and medium-term outlook for Saudi Arabia is positive as growth is picking up, inflation will remain contained, and the external position will strengthen further."

The Fund indicated that the Kingdom managed the COVID-19 pandemic well and is well-positioned to weather the risks posed by the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening cycle in advanced economies.

"Economic activity is picking up strongly, supported by a higher oil price and the reforms unleashed under Vision 2030," read the statement.

Saudi authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline should help further strengthen fiscal and external sustainability and avoid procyclicality while implementing the ambitious structural reform agenda will help ensure a durable, inclusive, and green recovery.

"Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly following a deep pandemic-induced recession."

The report also explained that the overall growth was robust at 3.2 percent in 2021, driven by recovering non-oil manufacturing, retail, e-commerce, and the trade sector.

The Fund pointed out that with increased labor force participation of nationals offsetting expatriates' departures, the unemployment rate has fallen further to 11 percent, a 1.6 percent drop from 2020, mainly owing to higher employment for Saudi nationals, particularly women, in the private sector.

The statement said that financial stability risks are well contained, and the banking system is profitable, liquid, and well-capitalized.

The staff's preliminary analysis found that the impact on credit growth and non-oil GDP is negligible and positive for the banking sector profitability when oil prices and liquidity are high.

They touched on the Kingdom's efforts concerning climate policies, stressing that the government is working to intensify investments in blue and green hydrogen production and is undertaking research and development focusing on the circular carbon economy.

They confirmed the strength of the Kingdom's economy and the power of its financial position, reflected in the great effort made by the government to promote its economic reforms in light of Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia works on various projects in different sectors, including infrastructure, logistics, entertainment, tourism, and mining.

"The mission welcomes the Kingdom's commitment to fiscal sustainability and efforts to avoid procyclicality by setting a spending ceiling that would be delinked from oil price fluctuations."



Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports reached an unprecedented SAR515 billion in 2024, marking the highest value in the Kingdom's history. This achievement represents a significant 13% increase compared to the previous year and an impressive growth of over 113% since the launch of Vision 2030.

The robust growth spanned all export sectors. Merchandise exports climbed to SAR217 billion (+4%), fueled by respective increases of 2% and 9% in petrochemical and non-petrochemical exports, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Saturday.

Re-exports surged to SAR90 billion, demonstrating a remarkable 205% growth since the inception of Vision 2030. Services exports also reached an all-time high of SAR207 billion, exhibiting a 14% year-on-year increase and a substantial 220% rise since Vision 2030's announcement.

Saudi Export Development Authority CEO Abdulrahman Althukair attributed this historic non-oil export performance to the Kingdom's sustained efforts in economic diversification and enhancing the competitiveness of national products.

He highlighted the authority's commitment to facilitating national companies' access to new markets and bolstering their export capabilities through comprehensive programs encompassing training, empowerment, promotion, and advisory services. This aligns with Vision 2030's goals to establish a thriving economy where non-oil exports are a key driver of sustainable growth.

In 2024, petrochemical commodity exports amounted to SAR149 billion, constituting 68% of total commodity exports, and registered a 2% increase in value and weight compared to the previous year.

Non-petrochemical commodity exports achieved a remarkable SAR69 billion (32% of total commodity exports), the highest value in recent years. This included record export figures for over 205 Saudi products, such as food and dairy products, minerals, and building materials. Fertilizer exports also demonstrated exceptional growth, with product weight reaching a historic peak in 2024, increasing by 5% year-on-year, and more than fivefold in value since the launch of Vision 2030.

The Kingdom's re-export sector also delivered a historic performance in 2024, reaching SAR90 billion, a 205% increase compared to 2016, a 42% rise year-on-year, and a 114% increase compared to 2019. This was primarily driven by the re-export of mobile phones, which reached a record value of SAR25 billion, more than doubling their 2023 value. The operation of the integrated logistics zone at King Khalid International Airport played a significant role in this remarkable growth by enhancing supply chain efficiency and facilitating re-export operations.

Machinery, automated devices, transportation equipment, and parts thereof constituted 84% of total re-exports in 2024. Re-exports of aircraft parts also experienced substantial growth, increasing from SAR1.6 billion in 2022 to over SAR2 billion in 2024.

In 2024, the Kingdom exported goods, re-exports, and services to over 180 countries, with 37 countries registering record import values, including the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Algeria, Spain, France, Poland, Libya, and Syria. Other countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Nigeria, Germany, Greece, and Bulgaria, also achieved record import volumes.

Services exports reached a record SAR207 billion in 2024, marking a 14% year-on-year increase and a 220% rise since 2016. The travel and tourism sector was a key driver, increasing by 270% since 2016. In 2024, Saudi Arabia welcomed approximately 30 million international tourists, contributing to a 150% increase in travel exports compared to 2019, representing 74% of total service exports.

The Kingdom also recorded a 69% increase in international tourist numbers compared to pre-pandemic levels and a 148% increase in tourism revenues compared to 2019. Saudi Arabia led the G20 in tourist number growth, with a 73% growth rate during the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019. The transportation sector contributed 12% of total service exports, achieving a 5% year-on-year growth.