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Ukraine FM Rules out Russian Use of Nuclear Weapons, Calls for Isolating Moscow over its Threats

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Asharq Al-Awsat
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Asharq Al-Awsat
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Ukraine FM Rules out Russian Use of Nuclear Weapons, Calls for Isolating Moscow over its Threats

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Asharq Al-Awsat
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Asharq Al-Awsat

The world is laying out the worst scenarios for the Russian-Ukraine war. Predictions are morbid, whether they are about protracting the conflict, widening the global food gap, or hiking prices of supply chains and energy.

Moreover, concerns are growing around the race towards acquiring advanced weapons, including nuclear arms.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has shown relative optimism about the international community succeeding in stopping the war by implementing harsher sanctions on Russia.

According to Kuleba, stronger sanctions would affect Russia’s economy and force Moscow to opt for a political solution.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kuleba urged Ukraine’s partners to provide his country with advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems.

He urged Ukraine partners to provide his country with advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems. “If we make our skies safe, we will save many civilian lives,” he explained.

Kuleba also estimated Ukraine’s economic and infrastructure losses at a whopping $1 trillion.

Reviewing the Ukraine-Gulf ministerial meeting held on June 1, Kuleba said that his country anticipates for Arab Gulf countries to play an effective role in resolving the current global food and energy problems.

Kuleba noted that Russia is using food and energy shortages as tools of war to pressure the international community.

The top diplomat affirmed that Ukraine has submitted a proposal to establish a special advisory council between Ukraine and the Gulf states. The platform would be used to discuss pressing issues, such as grain and energy security.

Kuleba predicted that Ukraine's GDP would fall by 30%, and inflation would reach 20% in the first quarter of 2022.

Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has wiped out 30% of the latter’s infrastructure at an estimated cost of $100 billion.

“It is difficult to give exact figures while the war is still raging, but Ukraine's GDP is expected to fall by at least 30% in 2022, and inflation could reach 20% in the first quarter of this year,” said Kuleba.

“Ukraine's GDP has already lost 16%, making up a monthly budget deficit of more than $3 billion,” he added.

When asked about Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to strike new targets if the West continues to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine, Kuleba said: “those are empty threats.”

“Putin is already indiscriminately hitting targets in Ukraine, and he is already engaged in a brutal war of aggression against Ukraine,” said the foreign minister.

“He (Putin) does everything that terrifies Ukraine and he continues to kill Ukrainians every day.

“The Russian army is waging a barbaric war and mostly hits civilian targets.”

“Last week, Russia struck many Ukrainian cities and towns with long-range missiles, killing dozens of innocent people,” he said.

Commenting on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claims about the presence of hundreds of US and UK intelligence personnel operating in Ukraine, Kuleba said that it is all a part of Russian propaganda.

“The Russian foreign minister is trying one way or another to justify his country's aggressive war against Ukraine,” said Kuleba, adding that Lavrov’s excuses were laughable.

“The Russian invasion, which was supposed to achieve its goals within days, continues so far for the fifth month without major successes,” noted Kuleba.

On Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Kuleba said: “Russians are stealing Ukrainian minerals and grain, looting private property, kidnapping, torturing and killing people.”

“The takeover (of Zaporizhzhia) is an attempt to seize Ukrainian state property, and just another heinous act in a series of Russian crimes that will surely be punished.”

“I assure that the heroic Ukrainian resistance and the support of our partners will defeat the Russian plan. Russians need to understand that they made a mistake by invading Ukraine and they should withdraw their forces from our lands,” Kuleba told Asharq Al-Awsat.

As for Ukraine’s hopes for joining NATO, Kuleba said that his country can’t wait forever, especially in the face of the existential threat posed by Russia.

“We need effective security guarantees now, not at some point in the future,” said the top diplomat.

Regarding the threat of nuclear warfare, Kuleba said that it was unlikely for Russia to use its nuclear arsenal to attack Ukraine.

“It is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons, but its officials and its spokesmen on television propaganda talk about them casually. I am sure that they should be punished for the threat to use nuclear weapons,” said Kuleba.

According to the Ukrainian minister, Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons against another sovereign country warrants its isolation from the international theater.

“In the course of its aggression, Russia has already demonstrated its complete disregard for nuclear safety,” said Kuleba.

While Ukraine has demanded sanctioning Russian oil and gas, there are some countries, such as Hungary, that reject the proposal.

“Doing business as usual with Russia, and buying their oil and gas, means taking care of its war machine, and its ability to destroy Ukraine and kill the Ukrainians, and this is contrary to the principles of justice and international laws,” said Kuleba.

“But the issue of sanctions is not morally perfect, there is also a practical aspect to it. For example, reliance on Russian energy and supplies is the main blackmail chip in the Kremlin,” he explained.

“They use energy as a weapon, blackmailing states by threatening to cut supplies if they oppose Moscow’s political decisions,” he added, noting that Russia has banned Ukrainian food exports.

“We hope to work on the seventh package of sanctions at an accelerated pace, as Russia's GDP growth fell from 5.6 % in January to 3 % last April and is expected to shrink by 8% to 15% this year.”

Asked to comment on Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Kuleba said: “Russia now does not want to negotiate.”

“Putin's spokesman said a few days ago that Ukraine can end this war the day it lays down its arms and accepts all Russian requests, which means that Russia is not ready for negotiations and is seeking military solutions.”

“Putin's path to the negotiating table is through defeats on the battlefield. Only when he realizes that his army cannot win over Ukraine will he get serious about the talks,” clarified Kuleba.

The Minister stressed that Ukraine will focus on the restoration of territorial integrity, economic recovery, punishment for war crimes, and compensation for damages in any future talks.

Moreover, Ukraine will push for a new system of security guarantees, which is currently under discussion with potential guarantor states.

Discussing prospects for a Saudi role in making Russian-Ukrainian negotiations successful, Kuleba said: “We are grateful for the proposal by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to contribute to de-escalation and mediation between Russia and Ukraine expressed in the call with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on March 3.”

“We expressed the Ukrainian side's interest in deepening engagement with Saudi Arabia and all other Arab countries, especially in the reconstruction efforts,” said Kuleba.

“We also affirmed our hope that the Gulf states will play an active role in solving the current global food and energy problem, which Russia uses as tools of war and pressure on the international community,” he added.

“It is time for decisive action and confident steps,” said the minister.

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.