Int’l Resolution to Help Syrians. Is a Russian-American Settlement Possible?

A member of the "Emergency Response Team" volunteer group hands out meat freshly-butchered and packaged as part of the commemoration for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha to people at a camp for Syrians displaced by conflict, in the village of Killi in the Syrian opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib on July 10, 2022. (AFP)
A member of the "Emergency Response Team" volunteer group hands out meat freshly-butchered and packaged as part of the commemoration for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha to people at a camp for Syrians displaced by conflict, in the village of Killi in the Syrian opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib on July 10, 2022. (AFP)
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Int’l Resolution to Help Syrians. Is a Russian-American Settlement Possible?

A member of the "Emergency Response Team" volunteer group hands out meat freshly-butchered and packaged as part of the commemoration for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha to people at a camp for Syrians displaced by conflict, in the village of Killi in the Syrian opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib on July 10, 2022. (AFP)
A member of the "Emergency Response Team" volunteer group hands out meat freshly-butchered and packaged as part of the commemoration for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha to people at a camp for Syrians displaced by conflict, in the village of Killi in the Syrian opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib on July 10, 2022. (AFP)

Last-gasp negotiations are underway to salvage the international resolution that allows cross-border aid to reach Syria.

Russia had last week vetoed the extension of the resolution when it was put to a vote at the United Nations Security Council. The resolution expired on Sunday.

What is the resolution?

Issued in 2014, the resolution allows the delivery of aid to Syrians through four crossings from Jordan, Iraq and Turkey.

With the military changes in the ground in Syria, the region and the world over the years, the United States and Russia agreed in 2021 on resolution 2585. It allowed the delivery of aid through only a single crossing at Bab al-Hawa on the Turkish border. The aid would go to over 2.4 million people in the Idlib province, the last remaining opposition stronghold.

What are the American concessions?

Damascus and Moscow have always been critical of the 2014 resolution, which they deemed a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.

When he came to office, US President Joe Biden set the delivery of aid as a priority for his administration.

A meeting he held with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June 2021 was followed by secret negotiations that were held by their respective envoys, Brett McGurk and Alexander Lavrentiev.

Their talks led to a series of American concessions to Russia that shocked western powers that were not consulted by Washington during the negotiations.

The concessions included an agreement to fund “early recovery” projects in Syria that covered health, education, and sewage systems; increasing aid across the borders of the zones of influence inside Syria; and renewing the resolution for another six months, which hinged on a report on the “early recovery” and cross-border deliveries submitted by UN chief Antonio Guterres.

In return, Washington believed that it received a verbal agreement from Moscow that the resolution would be renewed automatically every six months.

What are the differences between Russia and the US?

The resolution expired as the world remains gripped by the Russian-Western conflict in Ukraine. Moscow attempted to hold expanded political negotiations from Syria, but Washington turned them down. It tasked its embassy in New York to follow up on the extension of the resolution, believing it was a done deal.

Washington and its allies believed the extension would have taken place in line with the understandings reached between McGurk and Lavrentiev. Moscow, meanwhile, had expressed its disappointment over the lack of progress in the “early recovery” and “cross-border” files.

Russia believes western countries did not agree to discuss Guterres’ report on these issues, while Washington charges that Moscow did not commit to its pledges and that it wants the US to make concessions with every extension.

Four Russian demands

Norway and Ireland had submitted the draft to extend the resolution for a year, but it was vetoed by Russia, which handed in four demands in return for its vote:

1- Extending the resolution for six months only.

2- Adding electricity to the projects covered in the “early recovery”. The word “electricity” was mentioned at least twice in the Russian draft.

3- Forming a mechanism to monitor the implementation of the resolution, especially the “early recovery” and “cross-border” deliveries.

4- The extension of the mechanism-resolution must require a new international resolution in line with a report from Guterres about actual progress.

Is there a settlement from either side?
Russia used its veto to turn down the western draft, while Moscow’s proposal did not receive enough votes in favor, with ten non-permanent members, including India and the United Arab Emirates, abstaining.

Countries are now confronted with two options: Failing to issue a resolution, which Moscow and Washington want to avoid, or searching for middle ground between the two resolutions.

Western countries believe they have made several new concessions by including the electricity file and monitoring mechanism in the resolution in return for extending the resolution for a year.

Washington believes that Moscow and Damascus are desperate enough for the electricity file to be included in the resolution that they would agree to a settlement over extending the resolution for a year, rather than six months.

Including the electricity file would save Syria from darkness, keep this file away from western sanctions and encourage energy projects with Jordan.

From Russia’s perspective, Moscow no longer trusts the West’s intentions and wants the resolution extended for only six months so that negotiations could again be held when the resolution expires.

It is hoping that the West wants to avoid strengthening Turkey’s position, which should the resolution fail to be extended, will be in charge of aid deliveries to northern Syria. Ankara could exploit the Syrian file for its own goals related to immigration and terrorism files.

A settlement is possible. Discussions have spoken of an extension for nine months, followed by three more. Over the Eid Al-Adha holiday, Arab and foreign diplomats sat together to search for last-gasp settlements as millions of Syrians held their breath.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."