The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Crisis... From Good Faith to Unilateral Measures

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (Ethiopian Ministry of Water Energy)
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (Ethiopian Ministry of Water Energy)
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Crisis... From Good Faith to Unilateral Measures

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (Ethiopian Ministry of Water Energy)
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (Ethiopian Ministry of Water Energy)

“I swear to God, we will never harm you,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged in 2018 from inside the Al-Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo. He made the pledge after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi asked him to reassure the Egyptian people that they would receive their fair share of the Nile’s waters.

However, it seems that these pledges came to nothing, as the negotiations in “good faith” that have been held between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the past 11 years have not yielded a final agreement Egypt is comfortable with, pushing Cairo to return to the Security Council once again in protest of what it called “unilateral measures” taken by Addis Ababa.

The recent escalation was in response to Ethiopia beginning the third phase of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without the approval of neither Egypt nor Sudan. Egypt sent a letter to the UN Security Council calling on it to “meet its obligations in this regard” and emphasizing its “legitimate right... to take all necessary measures to ensure and protect its national security” and its “objection and complete rejection of Ethiopia continuation to fill the Renaissance Dam unilaterally without a deal.”

The statement signed by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry then warned that Egypt would not tolerate any actions that threaten its rights or water security or any of the wealth belonging to the Egyptian people, whom it added see the Nile River as their only lifeline.

The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia began after Ethiopia began building its dam, with Egypt worried that it could threaten its share of the Nile’s water. Meanwhile, Ethiopia claims that the GERD is necessary for the country’s development.

Over the past 11 years of negotiation, Cairo has insisted on resolving the dispute peacefully, initiating negotiations that led to Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia signing the Declaration of Principles Agreement in Khartoum in 2015. In a speech at the time, Sisi stressed that good faith and management are the foundation for any agreement.

However, it seems that this good faith was nowhere to be found, as Ethiopia continued to build the GERD, which the Egyptian Foreign minister referred to in his statement to the Security Council, saying that Egypt sought a fair and equitable agreement, but Ethiopia thwarted all the efforts to resolve the crisis.

As the negotiations between the three countries continued to falter after the Declaration of Principles Agreement, Cairo sought a strong mediator to apply pressure on Addis Ababa. It called on the US to meet with the three concerned countries in November 2019. However, the US-sponsored negotiations went on until January 2020 and ended with an agreement on six principles without ending the dispute, with Ethiopia not attending the signing, while Egypt signed and Sudan did not.

When Donald Trump left the White House, US meditation paused and the countries met for a new round of talks in the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in April 2021. It was at this point that Egypt decided to ask the Security Council to get involved, but the latter replied that settling technical disputes on this matter is not among its duties.

African mediation did lead to the emergence of a legal settlement, and Addis Ababa continued to take unilateral actions that experts see as “an attempt to buy time as Ethiopia proceeds to fill and operate the dam.”

Sisi’s meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden in Jeddah earlier this month announced the resumption of US mediation. In a joint statement, both men stressed the need to agree to a binding joint framework on the filling and operation of the GERD.

US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer then began a series of visits to Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE last Sunday. His round of visits will continue into August, but it seems that these US efforts have come too late, as, on July 26, Egypt received a message from Ethiopia saying it would continue filling the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam during the current flood season.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr. Nader Noureldeen, a Water Resources Professor at Cairo University, said: “We had hoped that the US would take action before the third filling of the Dam’s reservoir. Now, we have to wait and see what this round of US and UAE mediated negotiations will come to.”

“Egypt engaging the Security now is an attempt to create a global lobby in solidarity with Egypt and pressure Ethiopia to resume negotiations,” he added. Though the UNSC resolutions are “nonbinding,” the international community is “sympathetic to Egypt and its opposition to Ethiopia’s insistence on building a massive dam that holds 75 billion cubic meters of water without coordinating with the downstream countries.”



Alarm in Tel Aviv After Removal of Pro-Israel Officials from Trump Administration

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the White House in April. (dpa)
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the White House in April. (dpa)
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Alarm in Tel Aviv After Removal of Pro-Israel Officials from Trump Administration

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the White House in April. (dpa)
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the White House in April. (dpa)

The dismissal of pro-Israel officials in the White House sparked concerns in Tel Aviv as US President Donald Trump’s “America First” sidelines allies and reflects a broader effort to curb foreign influence across the administration.

“Israeli officials are expressing growing concern over a series of unexpected personnel changes within the US administration, particularly involving individuals widely seen as strongly supportive of Israel,” sources told the Ynetnews website, which is affiliated to the Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

The reshuffling comes amid rising tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over a potential strike on Iran and the ongoing war in Gaza.

According to the Israeli report, two senior officials recently removed from their posts are Merav Ceren, a dual US-Israeli citizen who was only recently appointed as head of the Iran and Israel portfolio at the National Security Council, and Eric Trager, who oversees the Middle East and North Africa.

Both had been appointed by former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, a staunch supporter of Israel, who was himself dismissed by Trump.

Ynetnews wrote that their removal was reportedly carried out by Waltz’s successor, Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Meanwhile, another high-profile figure expected to depart is Morgan Ortagus, deputy to special envoy Steve Witkoff and the official handling the Lebanon portfolio. Sources say her departure is not voluntary.

Ortagus, who converted to Judaism and wears a Star of David necklace, is considered one of the strongest supporters of Israel within the administration.

According to the Israeli report, she played a key role in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon and in persuading the Lebanese government to take a firm stance against Hezbollah and disarm Palestinian refugee camps.

“Her imminent departure has stunned officials in Jerusalem, where she is viewed as closely aligned with Israeli interests,” Ynetnews said.

Officials following the issue do not rule out the possibility that more pro-Israel officials may be removed.

In the Trump administration, they note, decisions often come abruptly.

These removals are not occurring in a vacuum, but rather reflect a broader distancing between Jerusalem and the Trump administration, which appears to be pursuing its own strategic calculus.

Israeli sources familiar with US-Israel relations told the Israeli website that the spate of removals is driven by Trump’s “America First” agenda.

According to those sources, the shakeup is not specifically aimed at Israel but reflects a broader effort to curb foreign influence across the board.

They stress that the dismissals were not a result of the officials' views on Israel, but rather part of Trump’s ongoing attempt to weaken the National Security Council and consolidate control of US foreign policy in his own hands.

This, they said, explains why Trump has left the national security advisor post vacant, with Rubio assuming the responsibilities instead.

Also, the sources noted that the push to remove pro-Israel figures is being led by Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, and Vice President JD Vance.

Ynetnews said that Netanyahu has reportedly confided in closed-door discussions with his confidant, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, that he misjudged the direction the US was taking on Israel and the broader Middle East.

Senior Israeli officials said Netanyahu did not hide his disappointment with Dermer.

“Dermer misread the situation; he was convinced the US would never turn against us,” said one source.

“He failed to anticipate the shift in US policy toward Israel. Even now, Dermer still believes the US will remain supportive and maintain coordination, but the truth is, he’s lost his bearings.”